Sliding LP's M Taylor was talking about

Sliding LP into cold air , you can see why M Taylor mentioned snow on its N Flank

Shows  the sliding LP idea quite well

A white Valentines Day on the cards

Several hours of snow

Ideal set up

Well lots to look forward to and some Snow IMBY isnt a write off just yet, M Taylor did mention sliding LP's Snow on the Northern edge but didnt make a big deal of it as it is well into FI but you get the idea.

ECM 12z ensemble for London:

Op and ensemble mean in very good agreement throughout the coming week and into next weekend - relatively noteworthy.  With maxima around 5C you would expect chances for some wintriness at times. 12th with a high of 3C and a dose of precipitation might offer the best chance - based on current output.

Not the SW??

Well, this is commencing exactly as forecast:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

GFS still keen on a slider

C S England seeing several hours of snow

Then something from the E

Unfortunately the ECM isn't interested in the wedge of heights to the North, whilst UKMO is somewhere between the GFS and ECM

That's it then

Snow across the SW

Well I'm not drawing any conclusions this morning, let's hope we can get the wedge. Will be interesting to see what the professionals make of the output.

I don't think that was the implication of the post. Rather, it was just stating an observation on the ECM.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  Storm 'Imogen' will move slowly away NE later today and the severe gales across the South will steadily ease later though leaving a legacy of strong Westerly winds with showers across most areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will remain around 4000ft across the UK falling a little across Northern areas later with the snow risk level falling to lower elevations in the North and West by tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and very windy with rain or squally showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains very strong over the next 14 days. The flow remains to the South of the UK encouraging Low pressure to centre close to the UK for most of the time. Later in the period the flow moves slightly further North for a time.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today maintains a very unsettled and turbulent period with rain and showers and some hill snow at times through this week. Some snow on lower ground at times could develop over the North at times as Low pressure aims further South than recently with a cold East flow over the North for a time. Then through the second week the weather becomes somewhat less volatile with longer dry spells between the rain bands with temperatures mostly close to average in the South especially.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is also very unsettled with rain and showers around on most days with snow on hills and while gales or even severe gales are likely through Week 1 the theme of a slow transition to less stormy weather is looking possible in the second week. Nevertheless, the weather remains mobile throughout the run with spells of rain and temperatures near average alternating with sunshine and showers and colder conditions with some snow on the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today once again show the Atlantic in total domination of the UK weather in 14 days. Winds all blow from between SW and NW with a bias towards a more unsettled theme rather than a drier one as only a handful of members suggest enough influence from High pressure to the South and SW to have a meaningful effect.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a continuing picture of Low pressure based near or over the UK across the week to come. While the early severe gales die away by midweek fronts associated with the Low pressure will bring further wind and rain later in the week and with some colder air in place this week it looks like some snowfall can be expected on modest hills at times away from the far South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today maintain an unsettled pattern this week though with winds decreasing from current levels. Quiet weather with showers near coasts midweek give way to renewed Low pressure into the SW again by the end of the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows Low pressure maintained across the UK throughout the coming week with rain or showers at times and snow on hills and while winds remain strong they are shown to become less strong after today. Then early next week a marked ridge moves East and settled the weather down for a time with some night frosts but pleasant days before cloud, rain and wind move back down across the North and West of the UK from the NW by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows Westerly winds and unsettled conditions with showers through most of this week with some snow at times on the hills of the North. then over next weekend another storm system is shown to move across from the West bringing spells of strong winds, cold rain and hill snow for many before quietening down again at the very end of the run as a ridge moves in from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also shows a very unsettled week to come with today's severe gales subsiding leaving a legacy of unstable and cold air across the UK with showers, some heavy and thundery with snow on hills. Then later this week a new deep Low brings renewed gales and rain with possible snowfall for the North. then towards the end of the run a pattern shift towards better weather is shown with a short spell of Northerly winds and snow showers in places ahead of a ridge bringing frost and a return to milder SW winds for many again at least for a time at day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows the same theme as recently  with Low pressure to the NW and the Azores High at home with a West or NW flow across the UK with rain at times and snow possible on Northern hills at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to maintain volatile and windy Low pressure based conditions across the UK with just slight hints towards Low pressure moving further North later in the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.6 pts to UKMO at 88.7 pts and GFS at 88.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.0 pts to 64.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 49.9 pts to ECM's 48.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The models continue to show a very mixed pattern of weather over the next few weeks with the most stormy weather likely over the next week while in Week 2 things may turn somewhat less volatile with a more traditional Atlantic pattern returning. Currently Storm 'Imogen' is rattling a few panes across the South  but this will ease down by tomorrow with the mix of rain and showers continuing for many. Then a quieter midweek period with showers restricted more towards windward coasts is replaced by another deep Low pressure area towards the weekend. This Low looks like travelling ESE across the heart of the UK and could give some significant snowfall to it's North so it's track is crucial on who gets snow and who gets cold rain. However, I don't see this as a major wintry outbreak away from the highest ground of the North and following a colder and more showery period late next weekend when snow could reach the hills of the South as well it looks like a strong ridge could build across the UK for a time with frosty nights but a couple of bright and dry days. Thereafter it is likely that Atlantic depression return but more towards the NW setting up a strong Westerly but milder flow with rain at times for many but less intense weather events in the South and East. That's the way I see it this morning. For those who see snowfall in a big way this morning I would urge caution as there is not a lot of cold air to tap into and cold rain to me looks the more favoured option for much of England and Wales under next weekends storm system though I would happily be proved wrong. thereafter it looks like standard Winter fayre of wind and rain at times under an Atlantic flow.       

Next Update Tuesday February 9th 2016 from 09:00 

It'll be interesting to see what, if any, effect this has on the model output over the coming week or so and ultimately, the weather conditions we experience. Let's hope it can be of some benefit to us for later in February.

Slider brings the snow in

That will do

Right on top of me.    Thank you very much.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_165_preciptype.png?cb=382

followed by:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_195_uk2mtmpmin.png?cb=21

Likewise. If that comes off I'll eat my salopettes ;)

Better take a screenshot of that because that's about as near as we'll get!

'JFF' as Marcus would say....