Who knows- perhaps I'll post an onscreen shot of the snow- and you'll be Gandalf The Less-White-Than-Me!

You know on this thread when there's a big fight on Climate; a climate poster will pop over for a quick detox and hop back again.

Agree with all the skepticism above, but I would at least say that it's the most optimistic charts for my backyard all winter, and it is certainly a possible outcome. A bit ironic as I've been hoping that the MET's colder end to winter would come to pass, and its just as they have started to back away that some hope starts to show up!

I agree; let's hang on to it. I can cope with disappointment if the hors d'oeuvres is a few days of hope.  

Those runs are probably along the lines of the ECM 00z in terms of generating LP in the western Med. or NW Africa in response to the cold air being pulled down that way by at the start of next week.

An impressive plume of hot air for the time of year... 

I do wonder how it would interact with the polar jet as it attempts to dive back south of the UK. Potentially we'd see a powerful storm develop over NW Europe.

The past two GFS op runs are much faster to flatten the mid-Atlantic ridge and so this scenario is avoided. The model has been acting a bit strangely with the charts beyond the weekend - perhaps some confusion with the tropical signals. Its handling of the atmospheric angular momentum from as early as 5 days range has been changing considerably over the past week.

If this comes off it will mirror a similar set-up albeit with much better heights to the North 37 years ago :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1979/Rrea00119790214.gif

Gandalf-the-looking-forward-to-summer

Had a good look at 06h GEFS. Still a wide range including HP development to NE.Encouraging that even out at 240h 17 out of 20 ens have negative uppers,with 10  -6c and below.I tend to think that -6 or below is required for widespread snow particularly where surface temps do not look particularly low.

I still think that its unlikely that we will see much of the white stuff in the south-suffering severe snow withdrawl syndrome after  two flakeless winters here in Winchester.

Still with GFS ENS showing some good ENS hope that the north and Scotland at least will get some snow cover in the next week whilst the south is probably condemned to near misses.

no chance at all of any Mid latitude blocking surviving. So at best we get a final taste of winter this weekend and then spring or even a blowtorch as GFS shows

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Interesting Met/o 12z.

At 240h GEFS 12h has mild :cold 3:1.Earlier on LP's running a little further north on this run.It will no doubt shift from run to run but that sinking feeling is creeping in.

Perhaps but 10 days is a lifetime in model watching before then there is some interest. For this location these approaching the coldest set of ensembles of the winter http://meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3  (Not that it is a different target!)

ECM 12z op seems to be backing the Azores HP further west by 216hrs compared to GFS 12z at the same stage. Looks like a potential colder blast from the NW going by the trend of ECM.

Indeed , the 240 still leaves us chilly

Utter confusion among the models at the moment, during this time of substantial changes in tropical forcing.

Yet even that can't explain the big differences being seen as early as +48 hours. That is just a classic shortwave drama.

Forecasting is nigh on impossible to do with much confidence beyond Thursday so really a 50/50 for rain or snow across the middle third on Friday and then same odds again for the south at the weekend are the best the likes of me can produce at this time 

The high-res models for Fri-Sat are just as evenly split so not much help there either 

Yet the local forecast on BBC1 talked of rain without a mention of snow nor any hint of uncertainty. For shame!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_96_preciptype.png?cb

The Beeb had this as rain , but listening to JH it could also be snow ...toss of a coin

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.gif

A cold Valentines Day

A rather more encouraging presentation from JH. Much uncertainty

96h fax

120 fax

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