It's been interesting watching the ECM ensembles trending colder over recent days.  The 12z for London continues the theme

Now pretty solid agreement across the GFS and ECM 12z runs and the ECM ensembles for cool to cold weather to dominate for the next 7-8 days. Beyond that the signal is pretty strong for a return to something nearer normal - but little evidence of anything especially mild.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

OMG Gooner, and Medvale Weather et all.

There is complexity underway with the Central mid to SE (E USA) and also NE USA seeing a real series of Trofs and Developing Low, SE E USA, with Snow to NE of NewYork and Newfoundland seeing heavy snow from the PV Low that has snow across the West side and rain clouds to the East NE part at the centre Low 2 - this has a trailing cold snowy West NW side.

There is a new frontal System developing over far SE USA with narrow band of heavy rain, and there is lots of sleet snow and rain showers to it's West and NW speckled in SE E USA central West NW areas.

Another area of interest is the SW of USA NW of Mexico an Low Pressure with a long band of mid to low and high level clouds spreading NE towards the area of Texas etc Southern USA is it's in its path next two days ahem.

The Features in NW far NW Atlantic Newfoundland NE USA far side can easily be translated for UK weather by Thursday and more especially Friday, while in it's wake the fax charts UKMO and the GFS show another SE tracking Low from mid NW Atlantic from our NW side - they could be clearly from the cold air from NE USA, the feature in SE USA right now could go due ENE through West and mid part of Central North Atlantic way to our SW- so they could be ones that go along the Southern eastward moving small trof Low's towards Spain and South Europe I hope. 🌨❄️☔️💦, but maybe the Spoilers will move everything more NE from where they will be say by this Tuesday and Wednesday- the big picture is not easy at the moment to forecast for 96 and 120 etc.☔️😅😏.

That looks promising for some frosty nights of -2 and -3 at night and maxes of 3 and 4 on the 12-15 ish Feb. Period for London, we have GFS and UKMO and Bracka faxes upto 144hrs that need monitoring next 72 hours and beyond, keep watching you never know, maybe the 528 dam line and -5 850 HPA line will also cross the M4 corridor and it could be easily be raining or snowing- for London high chance of R A I N😅😎.

Great ecm this morning surely we'll see some snow from charts like this. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

Yep, as always a forecasting nightmare, looks good though, surprised there haven't been more posts today. Ian F's tweet sums it up.

Yep the big 3 all look good this morning. Now can we get lucky for once?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Hopefully if there is enough ppn around

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_336_preciptype.png?cb=327

Heavy snow late on in the run for the far North

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_348_preciptype.png?cb=327

Spreading South

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_360_preciptype.png?cb=327

Down over the UK

Nice to see ECM join the winter camp. As for the strat - the warming is peaking right now:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

Perhaps it is a factor in the trend of the model output.

Id be amazed if there wasn't quite a lot of ppn around looking at the ECM and ukmo. But no model will pick up the correct ppn forecast at least until 36-48hrs to go even then it will be as usual a now cast. But the best snowy charts of the winter this morning so we coldies have hope at least.

Regarding this impending wintry spell over the next five days, the surface synoptics does look wonderful for it, but the 850's, dewpoint and upper winds all shouts "marginal slop" - not to mention all those little warm sectors floating around along with the lack of any real deep cold nearby to tap into.
  I have to look right ahead to the 156 hours range (15th February) to get that feeling of hope in terms of the 850's providing some kind of snow potential in my back yard - by this time it's all a long way in forecasting terms and thus very subject to change, and even then it doesn't look like lasting that long as the Atlantic shifts the lot back eastwards (amateur mid-range forecasting: the ability to spot a breakdown to a wintry spell that is yet to be verified   ) . . .





I'm done with this winter, especially having been wind-blasted once again yesterday. Time for me to look forward to the first bit of spring-like warmth on my face at the earliest opportunity. Especially what with the day time getting noticeably longer and the noon time sun creeping that tiny bit higher above the horizon.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A westerly airflow across the UK will ease later and veer NW behind a weakening trough moving South over England and Wales tonight. Another trough near SE England will move away East this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is now rather lower than of late with levels between 2000 and 4000ft across the UK. There will be some snowfall at times on hills above 1000ft but as usual mostly over adjacent hills and mountains to coasts to the West and NW.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the South at the weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains generally to the South of the UK over the next 4-7 days with the UK covered by Low pressure. Later next week the flow becomes more variable and generally further North than currently before returning a point just South of the UK in a West to East flow late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure under control for another week at least with a slack few days of winds to come with chilly air and scattered showers before Low pressure slips ESE across the South towards the weekend into the cold air and giving rise to a messy mix of rain and snow across the South over the weekend. Then next week sees cold and showery weather under Northerly winds give way to fine and frosty weather for a time. Then through the second half of next week milder westerly winds return with rain at times across the North and West with wet weather probably extending to all areas later with Westerly gales at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is also very unsettled with chilly and showery weather between now and Friday before Low pressure slips SE across the SW and brings rain and snow into the UK from the SW over the weekend. This then sets up a chilly week next week too with another major Low pressure sliding SE across the heart of the UK with severe gales and heavy rain and snow followed by colder air and wintry showers again midway through the second week. The belated High pressure ridge on this run is much more shallow and short-lived as Low pressure from the NW brings renewed cloud and rain again by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today indicate High pressure to the SW in 14 days time with winds across the UK likely to be blowing from between West and North. Changeable conditions look most likely with most members indicating varying degrees of how much Low pressure to the North and NE affects the UK with their attendant rain or wintry showers.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows unsettled conditions continuing across the UK well into next week. Low pressure is shown to slide SE across Southern Britain at the weekend and with cold air by then well ensconced across the North of the UK a messy mix of rain and snow will affect the South of the UK in particular over the weekend before all areas become cold and showery early next week ahead of a cold and frosty ridge of High pressure likely by midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate small changes involving the movement further South of the Low pressure area towards the weekend moving ESE across the far SW and France. The complex trough structures currently producing showers close to coasts and those associated with the Low pressure towards the weekend over the South and SW will increasingly give rise to the risk of snowfall in places as the air across the UK becomes slowly colder.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows another week or so of unsettled weather and with temperatures rather lower than of late and with Low pressure taking a more Southerly track close to the South over the weekend rain and increasingly likely snow will affect the South at times before a short spell of NNE winds and wintry showers become the precursor to an equally short frosty and cold period. Then later next week milder and stronger Westerly winds are re-introduced with rain at times returning to many areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the drier phase early next week rather shorter than some of the rest of the output with the cold and unsettled weekend with rain and snow further North than the rest of the models. This phase of weather is then displaced by a weak ridge of High pressure with the chance of frost before wind and rain from off the Atlantic returns along with milder air to all areas later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is probably the most complex of the lot this morning making a real dog's dinner of the prospects for the weekend with a very unclear boundary between mild air to the SW and cold and unstable air across the UK. Low pressure moving ESE on this run at the weekend seems quite shallow with a messy mix of rain and snow over the South for a time before it all slips away East over Europe leaving  a 24 hour spell of cold Northerly winds with wintry showers near coasts before frosty fine weather for another 24 hours become displaced by less cold Westerly winds and rain at times gradually pushing in from the West erratically towards the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today shows a similar pattern to that shown yesterday with Low pressure likely to lie near Iceland and a trough down across the UK and NW Europe with High pressure near the Azores. West or NW winds with rain or showers almost everywhere continues to be the main message given by this chart again today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are some hints that following the ridge of High pressure early next week a change to a more Low to the North High to the South pattern develops.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.8 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 88.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 67.0 pts to 63.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 48.6 pts to ECM's 48.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  At least things are looking a lot less stormy on the charts this morning than were projected some days ago. Nevertheless there is plenty of diversity shown on all the output this morning with wide ranging conditions day to day shown for all areas over the next few weeks with temperatures on the cold side for the next week then returning to a more yo yo pattern again later. In the short term we are settling into a quieter period of weather and quite chilly too with some showers especially near coasts and these could well be wintry over the hills. Then towards the weekend all eyes will be on developments to the West of the UK as Low pressure areas look poised to slip ESE across the SW of the UK on their way down over France. Engaging the cold air across the UK will be watched with interest as this could result in some snowfall across the South but to what point and location is yet to be decided. However, whatever happens the weekend looks cold and raw for many with that chance of cold rain or snow across the South. It doesn't look the start of a long cold spell though because the whole complex shifts away East over Europe next week with just a day or so of cold North winds and wintry showers and night frosts displaced later by a return of a more Atlantic based less cold Westerly pattern with rain or showers at times especially across the North and West. The above is the most likely sequence of weather events over the UK in the next two weeks but I should stress the situation is very complex and subject to change given that the prospects for this weekend and the exact course of Low pressure then is yet to be nailed down giving complications to the pattern that might emerge thereafter. So a typical February mix of weather in the offing this morning with almost something for everyone over the next few weeks though hopefully much of what happens will be rather less dramatic than some of the events the UK has seen in general this season so far.        

Next Update Wednesday February 10th 2016 from 09:00

Thank you for your output Martin.. A mixed bag indeed ..  A case of watch and wait....

An improved out put this morning with Lp,s tracking further south on ECM as well as METO and GFS. Still looks marginal for snow in the south but METO has dared to mention the S word in its short term forecast. Beyond 192h the GEFS shows that return of the mild Atlantic ids the majority option 3:2 but fair number of colder runs including this beauty.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=18&ech=264&mode=0&carte=0

If ever any two words perfectly summed up this morning's outputs, then these are them!

Absolutely nothing redeeming at all on offer. Fine if you like the slim chance of wet snow that will turn to the colour of defecation shortly after falling before it melts and seeps into the grime filled gutters. Roll on May and some decent spring/ summer storms. Pig sick of this winter now.

ECM ensemble for London from the 00z run

Colder than yesterday's 12z and still good support from the ensemble run as regards daytime maxima. Friday and into the weekend look like bringing maxima of 3-5C.   For overnight minima there are quite a few colder options.   The GFS 00z shows slightly higher maxima which are enough to take the borderline precipitation to rain instead of a wintry mix.

Not sure where GFS was going past day 10...

With some doubt on timing, there's good agreement on a decent amount of precipitation on Friday/Saturday - associated with a slightly less cold day, so again touch and go for rain v snow you would think - certainly at this stage.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Looking at the GFS 12z output, it looks like the possibility for a decent snow event in the West Midlands on Saturday into Sunday.

Ukmo still looks cold and snowy to me. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

Looking at the GFS and UKMO 500hPa, 850 hPa, and 300hPa Jetstream Charts with 72hrs Friday show A Low push SE to N France and away from the UK- Cold conditions with cloudy overcast situation and Central to NE and NW UK seeing Cold ENE airflow, SE flow in the West slacker in NW side, SE areas should not not see rain: what a difference 24 hours makes.

Then SE tracking PV Low cross the West and South UK even Central parts, with rain in the South and briefly less cold in South areas for a.m., Cold NE or ENE winds, NW in far SW, Cyclonic in English Channel, and possible heavy snow at mid to high levels in Wales Central UK England, Scotland and NE Ireland dry and settled with cold ENE winds to the East and NE parts.

More Colder both Sunday and in particular on Monday, with SE UK and South areas turning colder - very cold in the North and NE and the Central plus W UK, SE and South NE winds turning it colder with increased chance of bands or showers of sleet and snow at lower levels more especially mid and upper levers- Monday a.m. Cold with wintry showers in Eastern and Central to NE and SE to South with very strong bitter cold northerly airflow.

SE USA further Low Pressure today and over Mid Atlantic NW Atlantic and USA NE quarter further rain or sleet and some NE and Central E Mid and mid NE USA further sleet and snow showers today with Cold Northerly in Upper mid E NE Central to Mid NE W Side cold Arctic plunge yesterday and it got even more south to mid C SE USA.

NW and mid N Atlantic to our West at 900 miles and South Greenland to far North Atlantic Cold and wintry Low Pressure with some reduced mild sectors in them ready to head to UK and all West and North and also UK NW Europe down across Spain and Tunisia North Africa areas from 72hrs but more so from 96-144 hrs an very severe cold spell for 4 days is predicted by GFS and UKMO and the fax charts looks all very possible.

😀💤💦❄️🌫