http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016020912/ECH1-144.GIF?09-0

good agreement for the pv to power through. So much for the SSW

I'm not sure how much the SSW, taking place at this moment as I understand from MM's posts, will have been factored into the model output we're seeing at the moment though. I believe from what I have read about SSW events in the past that there is often a time lag of 2-3 weeks or longer before the warming in the stratosphere begins to propogate down to the troposhere. In others words, there are no sudden and dramatic changes as far as the weather is concerned, at least not normally.

If we could concrete over the north atlantic, we'd be laughing

the NW might do ok out of this

That chart has potential and we are still in a NE flow under it.

I don't understand the MO thread at the moment. We are seeing the best synoptics of the winter and there is hardly any activity here.

Its peak is still 6 or 7 days away so any effect is likely to start beyond that.  From my understanding of its potential effect, its not as sudden as the term suggest.  The likelihood of it having any direct effect on our weather when its at its peak is probably zilch, its the 4 to 6 week period beyond its peak that could be interesting.

ECM at 240hs tonight,

the word 'drab' springs to mind.

Well it would be in Galway on that chart. However there are much more interesting synoptics before then, even if they are possibly on the wrong side of marginal http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html 

Since that is the deepest of deep FI and those charts never come to fruition, why worry about it?

We don't take it seriously when people post stellar cold charts at +240, so why should we take it seriously when it shows boring zonality at the same timeframe?

Very fair comment

Eyes on faxes and Beeb forecasts I think

For sure, but if that chart verified, it would only be a matter of time before the drabness etched slowly but surely eastwards.

MM, I am not worried in the least about it as well used to it by now and  because it would be no different to the present or the last 3 months for that matter; although in fairness, there does seem to be support for that general set up on this morning's ensemble mean run.

ECM 144

and 168

represent 2 of the best charts inside one week for cold in the SE all winter.  Will be of interest to see where the op sits in the ens, if it has much support (I guess it one of the colder options) and whether an even colder feed of NElies can be dragged off Scandi. 

Hard times and meagre offerings  when a toppler is the best offer all winter.

Time will tell...

But we should take it serious and discount GEFS fantasy land when Berlin is showing strat warming, still waiting for a change in the output!

There is good agreement in the mid range after a slack and chilly westerly flow and brief northerly

To a more mobile westerly patten once again.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016020912/ECM1-240.GIF?09-0

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016020912/graphe7_1000_306_141___Londres.gif 

The synoptics look good but there isn't any properly cold air within 1000 miles of us!

Because the prospect of another cold and wet weekend with possible hill sleet just doesn't do it after the winter we have endured. 

The ECM's brief NE'ly looks like a convective rain/sleet fest down here early next week. I'm hoping that we get the GFS solution whereby we at least get a couple of dry, sunny and crisp days before the altantic onslaught resumes next week.

To be frank,  I think  weekend cold / rain / sleet  is  the best we can expect down here.   I think most people have given up .  It's been a dreadful winter  and I  for one can't wait to see the back of it.

Not sure why there is so much pessimism tonight best chance of proper snow all winter for the SE and East. Sunday looks like the day!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1202.html

That's the spirit! 

As the days have past the ppn on the GFS charts have got less and less , I think mostly dry and cold IMBY

Funny how tough the weather can be to predict , on Sunday the forecast was for one dry day and that was to be Wednesday , today was dry and Thursday looks it as well .

UK weather eh? who would be a weatherman

Valentines Day is certainly a cold one

link from meteociel:  

 http://meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?0

Pretty cold and sleety wintry fax chart T120 for Valentines Day.

A frontal trof over East Anglia with NE flow from it through London- the sleet will go up the hills in Outer London in this sequence of events, given my understanding of past couple similar scenario's.❄️💦😅. Note the -35 at 500 hPa and -5 or lower 850 hPa in cold NNE flow across whole of the U.K.

❄️🌨💦💧☀️😎. Bump😔.

Glad you picked up on that forecast!! - I had visions of it turning out to be wet and windy! - That was our only dry day' as forecasted. But all of a sudden we have Wednesday and Thursday.

We seriously need a break from this howling wind and torrential rain !! Enough is enough.

I think the lack of interest shows the battle fatigue from this Winter ......its not quite over