Met Office Hadley         6.8c.        Anomaly     2.5c.  Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                     6.60c.      Anomaly     2.40c.

Netweather                  7.4c.        Anomaly      3.21c.                      

Today was the first below average day of the month. We now have a run of 8 consecutive days with temperatures at or slightly below average. So the CET will continue to fall steadily. From the 20th it looks like things will turn a little warmer again.

We are still on course for the warmest winter on record but it is getting closer. We do need that warm up in the final week of the month to stay ahead of 1868/9.

Thanks for the chart GB. Starting to look kind of similar to January's chart but reading right to left.

Met Office Hadley             6.5c.       Anomaly       2.3c.   Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                         6.32c.      Anomaly      2.12c.

Netweather                      7.02c       Anomaly      2.83c.

Now after 11 days provisional data giving a monthly mean CET so far of 6.5C, the rest of the month has to be 4.08C or more to get an overall monthly figure of 5.0C and beat the 1868/9 record

My money is still on getting there

Yes, I reckon you're right; regardless of a few cold days, as long as that 'what we still need' mean keeps reducing, the probability increases (stating the obvious I know). Having said that, we're not yet half way through. If we needed 5 at the start and we've got 6 -ish by 14th/15th, below 4 is still a possibility.

The last third of the month looks mild so unless this changes it will be broken. However the mild is over a week away which gives time for pattern changes and there is a low possibility this cold could last longer.

I think it is highly likely the record will go.

D'you know what, though? It won't be a spectacular defeat and after that prodigal December we deserved something more emphatic, if only to compensate snow lovers like myself for the firework that went out. The current record relates to a year with sustained significant warmth. One exceptional month and two you won't find in one of those WHSmith books about weather through the years is overall dull.

Spring 2011 is another example of a season like this.  It finished as the warmest spring on record largely off the back of the exceptional April which was on a par with Dec 2015 in anomaly terms. The March and May were both warmer than normal but not exceptionally so,  but the April anomaly was such that the record was secured.  

That's a great example! I think the summer of 1976 was similar to that with June being the exceptional one.

The end of June was exceptional for the end of June; but the three months that summer were all consistently warm, with June actually being the coldest of the three as far as the CET record goes. July was the warmest month but not as hot as July 1983 or 2006. So actually 1976 doesn't match this pattern at all.

That's true, I had June and July figures mixed up, quite the opposite. An amazing season!

Met  Office  Hadley              6.3c.           Anomaly       2.1c.   Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                            6.05c.         Anomaly       1.85c.

Netweather                         6.74c.         Anomaly       2.55c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather       6.9c.           Anomaly       2.2c.

Clevedon Weather               7.7c.           Anomaly       2.4c.

Mount Sorrel                       6.3c.           Anomaly       2.1c.

Peasedown St John              6.3c.           Anomaly       2.5c.

Met  Office  Hadley              6.1c.         Anomaly       2.0c.  Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                            5.81c.        Anomaly       1.61c.

Netweather                         6.5c.          Anomaly       2.31c.

Met Office Hadley                    5.9c.    Anomaly    2.0c.   Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                                 5.2c.    Anomaly    1.32c.

Netweather                              6.26c.   Anomaly     2.07c.  

Met Office Hadley           5.7c.    Anomaly    1.8c.

Metcheck                       5.26c.  Anomaly     1.06c.

Netweather                    5.99c.  Anomaly     1.8c.

Peasedown St John        5.6c.     Anomaly     1.9c.

From the 11th to the 16th, a very consistent 0.2C drop every day.A straight line on the graph! Some milder days ahead, though.

Actually winter 1947 is really only remembered for that period late January to mid March 1947. As for the first half of that winter, when they do talk about it, it is under the misperception that it was mild! 

It's very rare to get a season that is consistent across all months.

Not quite sure that the record will fall though. 

I make it 4.53C from 16th to 29th inclusive required to snatch the record, based on 609.3 degree days in 1869 (6.77 X 90), and us needing a total of 617 (6.78 X 91 rounded; leap year) with 553.6 already achieved up to 15th Feb = 63.4C spread over the remaining 14 days (16th to 29th inclusive).  This is well down on the 4.99 needed earlier (re: Lanky's post).

It coud be up a notch after yesterday's frost- we'll wait and see.

Met Office Hadley             5.4c.            Anomaly         1.7c.      Provisional to  16th.

Metcheck                          5.20c.            Anomaly          1.0c.

 Netweather                      5.76c.            Anomaly          1.57c.

Peasedown St John            5.4c.              Anomaly          1.7c.                      

A big drop today after that hard frost yesterday! 

And given the rather cold outlook for much of the last ten  days of Feb could see it fall even lower.

Yep- that would be about right- not a flake of snow all winter and the only possible compensation-a record season- being missed by a whisker.

Met Office Hadley             5.3c.          Anomaly      1.6c.  Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                         5.08c.        Anomaly      0.88c.

Netweather                      5.68c.        Anomaly      1.49c.

Peasedown St John           5.4c.          Anomaly      1.7c.

Annual    PSJ                    5.7c.          Difference     0.0c.