Dreadful mid term GFS. Looks like ECM was on the money last week as I hinted. The trough will become even semi permanent and lead to a very disappointing mid to late June. Cold wet and windy sums it up. Make the most of the next few days because I fear the warmth won't return until July.

I'd love to know why the models are almost invariably right and verify when  they show something crap in the FI  range but when they show something perfect they hardly ever verify. 

The output you are seeing hasn't verified yet. 

But in any case, this is the UK - not Spain. High pressure is the default setting for a Spanish summer, but that isn't the case for us - our default setting is west or south west winds with occasional spells of rain. 

Not exactly hard to see why - Iberia in particular is almost always under the influence of the semi-permanent Azores high, while we are nearly always susceptible to low pressure systems with nothing to stop them.

Simply put, if it's extended heat and sun you want, our summers are completely crap and always have been. This is why retirees flock to Spain, Portugal and southern France. We occasionally get outstanding spells of summer weather like 1976, 1995 and 2006, but they are exceptional and remembered for a reason..

Not that I think summers here are dreadful or anything - but if you want endless sunny skies and temps in the mid-high 20s every day, you live in the wrong country. 

Met/o 12 is increasingly unsettled to.

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Outlook does not look too bad according to Met Office. A general  cooler unsettled spell coming up for mid June and then becoming a typical N. W. - S.E. split towards the end of June with hints of some hot weather for early July in the south and east. Not too bad considering we are getting some widespread warm weather this week as well.

Next week doesn't look pretty it must be said low pressure right over the UK and it will be slow moving

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/36465658

Certainly returning to nearer average. I think bledur has summed it up well though, with nothing truly disastrous on the horizon. The SE shouldn't fare too badly, though the NW will see a marked change. Temperatures not far from average though and the Met Office still hinting at a decent end to the month in their long range outlook.

Oh, and 7-10 days leads us to mid June not July  I know you're keen to write June off but there isn't a forecast out there that suggests this month will be a cool washout (well maybe there's one) 

I can verify that the heat is on in Southern Spain alright. I'm in Fuengirola for a couple of weeks or so and its been 28C and cloudless here today. Sad to see it will likely be back to reality when I return back towards the end of the month.

I am certainly not keen to write off June - but the first 4 days were a write off here  (didn't see the sun until yesterday) and after the briefest of warm ups you can write off at least one third more of it. And write off doesn't mean totally washout but there is no doubt that it'll be a poor first half of June at the very least. I remain convinced the whole of June will now be poor but hope  (and it is just hope) that July may offer something better.

Hints On this mornings ECM of an improvement after 10 days have been washed away tonight on the 12z.

Back on topic. 18z GFS continues unabated and is unsettled throughout its entire 384 hours. That's 16 days of unrelenting crap which takes us into late June. I anticipate through Met Office long ranger will start subtly changing over the coming days.

Edit. In fact is shows rain or showers EVERY SINGLE day for the next 16 days. The last time I saw every day of a GFS showing that was, dare I say, 2007.

Shocking charts for summer.

It looks like a good few days more of this mixed warm sunny and showery weather, this week looks like ending on a cloudy not by Friday I would expect, clouds spread across with 1018 weak low by Thursday then we look at more effects of SW winds by Friday and very unsettled and turn overcast with rain by Saturday.

Yesterday Monday was very warm and fairly sunny with nice marble blue skies, more of this Tuesday and Wednesday, Tuesday looks like many local heavy thundery storm showers expected.

Active Low Pressure this Weekend and continues for Mon-Tuesday 13-14th June, by then near average June Mean Temps with much needed rain for those growing Summer Fruits and Veggies.

Activity in the West and Central North Atlantic and South to SE USA via the THC is packing quite a packaging of West to East systems (West and SW flow should be bringing near normal rain and temps for 11th to 14th June.  What happens beyond that is still open to Model Output swings or maybe Moomin75 will carry on with his enthusiastic and entertaining run of LRF success.  We can still hope for something different from last 2 weeks of June and the models at the moment the GFS can go to 384 but ECMWF goes to 240hrs, and I just want to hope that GFS starts to put it's week 3 and 4 of June in the coming 14 days to tease us with ECMWF should carry on like on it's own with it's head on front of GFS head at times.

This very South based Jetstream forecast from GFS and ECMWF with UKMO to 144 United with both still I can see that upto June 16th it looks very much a cool and very showery thundery and breezy windy and very overcast and some sunny breaks in limited occasions during this current last few days prediction - fairly deep Low Pressure over UK NW Europe, with thundery downpours it    does clearly look like very short settled dry sunny and warm June weather at all, a few days a few times in first two weeks of June.

Hopefully this Sept-November will bring about a better variety of conditions with some warm and sunny periods in September giving way to a variety of Low and High Pressure with some traditional cool windy wet spells followed by regular spells of average sunshine and showers with cool winds but bring some nice pleasantly average October temperatures and good sunny periods as well!.

I'd be happy with mix chilly with rain/ showers and a some chilly nights with some early and late air frosts by November, average temperatures CET mean and both mix of warm as well as colder conditions with plenty of changes from high to low pressure and to have several long spells of rain as well as colder day and nights with a fair number of frosts at night but with some pleasantly mild and sunny days/and refreshingly cool eerie evenings and nights rather than too many mild 24-72 hour periods when much boring grey cloudiness with no rain...😃🌞😊.

He? For some reason I always thought moomin was a she!

But I am definitely a he. 😃

Looks like going downhill after the weekend. The models seem to be in fair agreement that a trough will set up residence over the UK in the 10-day period.

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OT (and this isn't the correct thread for making or critiquing forecasts), but Moomin was one of the few in early June 2007 to produce his "ark forecast" which went against the grain of other forecasts at the time. His presence in here at this time of the year always makes me feel uneasy.