theweatheroutlook

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JACKO4EVER
06 July 2016 06:20:40
Morning all, a disappointment again this morning as next week looks to mark a return of the unremitting crap according to latest ECM. After that the Azores HP tries to nose in, but at 10 days we need to be cautious with such hopes. A large area of low pressure next week may be a game changer, though with a further disturbance following in its wake a spell of northerly winds could be on offer.
JOHN NI
06 July 2016 11:38:57

Morning all, a disappointment again this morning as next week looks to mark a return of the unremitting crap according to latest ECM. After that the Azores HP tries to nose in, but at 10 days we need to be cautious with such hopes. A large area of low pressure next week may be a game changer, though with a further disturbance following in its wake a spell of northerly winds could be on offer.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Yes, not withstanding some transient warmth & humidity in the next few days the weather has a rather cool, changeable outlook next week. Longer term though most models are suggesting a 'less flat' zonal pattern. This might translate into settled periods in intervening ridges being a bit longer lasting - say 2 or 3 days but still within an overall changeable westerly across the British Isles. My gut feeling therefore is that the second half July will have a better 'feel' to it than the first half.  

John.
The orange County of Armagh.
schmee
06 July 2016 14:36:58
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html  for the south at least. Is this what we've been waiting for?.
Heat humidity sun and storms mixed in.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Bertwhistle
06 July 2016 15:59:44

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/fax/PPVL89.jpg?cb=574


Well you don't see this all that often; confirms how we're absolutely rutted into this cold pool. A double warm front heading south towards N Iceland/ The Faeroes from the High Arctic.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Rob K
06 July 2016 17:36:18
After a slow improvement of the charts in recent runs the 12Zs are horrible all round. Let's hope this trend does not continue.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
idj20
06 July 2016 21:34:52

After a slow improvement of the charts in recent runs the 12Zs are horrible all round. Let's hope this trend does not continue.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



And the same could be said for ECM's latest run. 

Hopefully things may take on a more positive slant tomorrow morning.

Folkestone Harbour. 
JACKO4EVER
07 July 2016 03:42:55
ECM 12z is utterly amazing as to just how vile the British "summer" weather may get. Just hope it's wrong.....
Rob K
07 July 2016 06:49:00

A bit more hope on offer this morning. GFS ensembles showing some nice plumes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ECM still rubbish though.


 


Certainly looks like I am heading in the right direction going to Guernsey for my hols... south is best!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
turbotubbs
07 July 2016 11:09:02

Tomorrow has a stand up fight between GFS and Euro4 for the rain in the south. I'm going fishing, so I'm keen to see if I need my umbrella. GFS says no, Euro4 says yes! Who will be right?


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/07/07/basis00/ukuk/prec/16070809_0700.gif


vs


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/gfs25/2016/07/07/basis06/ukuk/prec/16070809_0706.gif


Sevendust
07 July 2016 11:33:02


A bit more hope on offer this morning. GFS ensembles showing some nice plumes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ECM still rubbish though.


 


Certainly looks like I am heading in the right direction going to Guernsey for my hols... south is best!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Even Cornwall at the end of this month looks an improvement!


 

Islander
07 July 2016 11:48:28


A bit more hope on offer this morning. GFS ensembles showing some nice plumes.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ECM still rubbish though.


 


Certainly looks like I am heading in the right direction going to Guernsey for my hols... south is best!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


And we'll welcome you with open arms Rob, food and lifestyle here is awesome - can't guarantee you the weather mind, even if we are the 'sunny' islands!! 🙂 Sorry if off topic mods!!

Guernsey
Rob K
07 July 2016 16:53:13
:)

GFS 12Z *finally* shows pressure dropping over Greenland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
07 July 2016 17:39:57

:)

GFS 12Z *finally* shows pressure dropping over Greenland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That looks MUCH MUCH better. The whole run is very promising.


Please let's hope this is on to something. Maybe summer isn't over yet.


Andy Woodcock wrote a summer is over post on the moaning thread which I agreed with, but this 12z gives cause for optimism.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whether Idle
07 July 2016 18:34:36

Very pleasing to see this at 144 from ECM.  Will the HP be pushed back south quickly or will it hang on?


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
07 July 2016 19:56:21
I remember back in July 2003 Andy from Metcheck referring to this kind of pattern as the "granny runs", because the Azores high would keep pushing up, toppling over Western Europe then retreating before coming back, like a granny knitting.

I think he made up the expression, but it stuck with me. The idea was this is the precursor to, eventually, a big ridge peeling off the main high and bringing us settled weather. It worked in 2003. We must be due something half decent soon. The overall pattern is not that bad, just low pressure a bit too Far East and South.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Essan
07 July 2016 20:17:14

GFS 12z ensembles encouraging for a mid month change.   Though I note the op run is looking rather wet here on Sunday 10th!   But the garden needs it

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Bertwhistle
07 July 2016 20:21:21

I remember back in July 2003 Andy from Metcheck referring to this kind of pattern as the "granny runs", because the Azores high would keep pushing up, toppling over Western Europe then retreating before coming back, like a granny knitting.

I think he made up the expression, but it stuck with me. The idea was this is the precursor to, eventually, a big ridge peeling off the main high and bringing us settled weather. It worked in 2003. We must be due something half decent soon. The overall pattern is not that bad, just low pressure a bit too Far East and South.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


That's interesting. I remember a forecaster(think it was Francis Wilson) saying in July about France 'Where it's been so hot, for so long..' so the antecedent conditions were in place. Mid July 2003 there was a brief heatwave with > 30C on 2 days in the south. It will be interesting to see how the next week or so shapes up.


Also I remember a distinctive warm front moving west towards us on 2nd-3rd August so that early on that Sunday evening the temperature just kept rising here, maxing some time around 7pm. That kicked off 9 consecutives of 28 or more here. Could such a warm front be indicated by the strip of yellow (cloud & lower temps) on this chart?


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_384_2mtmp.png?cb=269


The winds have that easterly component.


 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
yorkshirelad89
08 July 2016 11:08:19

I remember back in July 2003 Andy from Metcheck referring to this kind of pattern as the "granny runs", because the Azores high would keep pushing up, toppling over Western Europe then retreating before coming back, like a granny knitting.

I think he made up the expression, but it stuck with me. The idea was this is the precursor to, eventually, a big ridge peeling off the main high and bringing us settled weather. It worked in 2003. We must be due something half decent soon. The overall pattern is not that bad, just low pressure a bit too Far East and South.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


The difference this year is that France has had record rainfall recently in contrast to 2003 where France had little for several months. In June 2003 temperatures were over 6C above normal in central France and this obviously helped build up heat towards the UK more easily.


Of course though we may see a heatwave developing later. The first halves of summer 1990 and 1997 were poor but both had a great August. Little sign of any heat yet but plenty of time left for that to change. Can't see any sign of this six week Spanish Plume the daily express are harping on about.

Hull
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
08 July 2016 22:14:25

The Weather and Modelled weather pattern remains sulkingly relinquishly unchanged.  The crossing of Low Pressure very prevalent this weekend and next week as well as the weekend that follow it.. UKMO, ECMWF and GFS upto 144 next week Thursday are better for a three day spell of very warm even hot and sunny weather too.


But by the Sunday after 2nd weekend from today that is currently a possible not yet certain break down to Low Pressure over the UK, we could see more heavy and Thundery Rain with that, ECMWF and GFS clearly onto this being a chance situation.


Plenty of heavy showers some with hail and thunder on Sunday to Tuesday. SW then west and then NW winds Saturday to Tuesday, Wednesday more West NW.  By Wednesday still average temps and by 144hrs Thursday next week West and NW see further rain or showers with more Low Pressure while the SW and SE plus Central UK see some rising temperatures from a cool night, with pleasant to very warm sunny spells. More sunny by following days Friday- Saturday.


💤⛈🌤☀️🌧🌞.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Rob K
09 July 2016 08:31:28
It's strange that just as the models are starting to look a bit more promising the Met Office is talking about a "downward trend in temperature" in the second half of the month.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
09 July 2016 09:28:33

It's strange that just as the models are starting to look a bit more promising the Met Office is talking about a "downward trend in temperature" in the second half of the month.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


But that downward trend they mention is after a period of warm to very warm, and the trend is most notable in the south. But in the following 2 week forecast they mention warm humid weather at times in between relatively average.


 


Also worth taking things into perspective here - very warm in July in the south and east is high 20's and even low 30's. I've noted in the past that in high summer the term 'Hot' for the Home Counties doesn't start getting used until 31-32C is on the cards.

Charmhills
09 July 2016 09:44:49

GFS ems don't look very inspiring IMO.


Pressure does rise from Thursday and becoming very warm, locally hot for a time over the weekend before turning thundery from the S/SW with cooler/fresher air following.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Gavin D
09 July 2016 18:34:24

My god a chart which actually shows high pressure 


cultman1
10 July 2016 06:40:39
a rare occurrence it seems nowadays!
Jiries
10 July 2016 07:45:22

a rare occurrence it seems nowadays!

Originally Posted by: cultman1 


I would say even much rarer to see this happening in summer.  Like yesterday at near 15C uppers which normally we get 30C to 31C temps but denied from it due to only few hours sunny spot in the morning then overcast. that all we are allowed to get in this country unlike before we get many HP days (22C-27C) leading to the 2-7 days heatwave events (28C-34C).  It been a very long time to see this occurring on the models charts for this and not sure if we ever going to get it back in our life time again.

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