Still broadly the same picture with higher pressure to the south and low to the north keeping the former generally warm and largely settled (especially the SE) and the latter cooler and more unsettled (especially the NW).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

ECM also shows the heights over Greenland gradually diminishing as we move into the start of August- let's hope this is maintained in the coming runs. If we can get rid of the heights over Greenland, it may be the first steps towards getting us out of this unsettled rut we've been in since late June.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

6z GFS is pretty woeful for summer David with Northern blocking setting up with a vengeance and a huge Greenland High. Would certainly be game over for summer if that verified. Thankfully it's out in FI at present but needs watching. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

GFS indeed trending slowly worse with each run, with any chink of light in FI removed entirely from the 6z run. GEM not much better, with ECM 00z probably the best of the bunch, with UKMO showing similar synoptics up to t120.

Now's the time to remember it isn't all about the GFS 

I think the best hope is to accept the pattern as it is and hope for one or two more unseen plumes before the summer is out. I can see September being the most settled month at this rate, as is typical 

Originally Posted by: SJV 

Absolutely and the ECM and UKMO gives hope.  GFS certainly isn't infallible and we must just hope that it trends better because if it did verify I genuinely think we could write off August and that is not meant as an inflammatory remark. But the kind of blocking it's showing would prove virtually impossible to shift in a few weeks by which time it would be heading towards September. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

6z GFS is pretty woeful for summer David with Northern blocking setting up with a vengeance and a huge Greenland High. Would certainly be game over for summer if that verified. Thankfully it's out in FI at present but needs watching. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Strangely this is what Philip Hammond mentioned toward the end of last week, the idea of a hurricane converting to a strong low pressure system that would dislodge the pattern and produce a different set-up. I suppose this means an intense system would finally send the Greenland high packing, allowing the Azores high to transfer from its deep mid-Atlantic hideaway and push more in our direction.

Current output is nothing exciting for hot weather fans but I don't think we should write off August just yet. Something along the lines of the Hammond suggestion may just happen and before you know it we may actually have a very good August. And it's been quite a long time since we've had one of those.

Originally Posted by: golfingmad