Hello folks,

Here's the Week ahead forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the traditional Written Thoughts version: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

Huge chances this week from autumn, to high summer and back to autumn again!

Tomorrow we've got the second Winter 16/17 update and my exclusive reinterpretation of the ECMWF seasonal model update for Winter 16/17...

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen!

EDIT: Here's the second winter 16/17 update: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php

EDIT 2: Here's the exclusive "interpretation" of the EC latest seasonal model update for Winter 16/17: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ecmwf-seasonal-model-forecast-interpretation.php

 

 

 

 

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Thank you Gavin..  A drop from 24c On Tuesday to 17 degrees the following Monday,,, 7 Degrees is going to be noticed.....

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Cheers Mr GP as September becomes the new July.

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Thanks Gavin, roll on the autumn. Enough of this hot and humid rubbish

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Thanks Gavin for all your hard work. A week of two halves? 

Gavin, you're probably aware of this, if you're planning to analyse the ECM ensemble for winter 2016/17, but in case you're not, it might be of interest:

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2015/why-quasi-biennial-oscillation-matters

It dates from last year, but has suddenly become relevant in light of the QBO's sudden unexpected behaviour.

Although the basic physics of the QBO is well known, the quantitative details and balances of the different processes are still rather unclear. Worse, many of the models used for numerical weather prediction (NWP) or climate modelling are unable to produce a QBO, or they produce a QBO which looks very different from observations. For example, only 4 of more than 30 models used for the last IPCC report have any sort of QBO.

At ECMWF, the IFS does have sufficient vertical resolution and physics to allow a reasonable simulation of the QBO, for example as seen in ECMWF’s ERA-20CM, a set of extended model runs covering the 20th century. Our seasonal forecasts also have skill in predicting the future evolution of the QBO signal. However, we would like to improve the accuracy and skill of the IFS, so we are working with other members of the international scientific community to better understand and model the processes driving the QBO.

What I'd take from that statement is that the ECM would be one of very few models worth taking seriously for this winter, and even then you wouldn't want to set too much store by it.

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Thanks Gavin

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Thanks fb a good read. I did mention how little we know about the QBO in the climate thread  this week with sparse data and little idea if what we're seeing is just a cycle within a cycle. 

In some ways it's a bombshell of a report, SC, considering how short and comprehensible it is. I mean, that throwaway line only 4 of more than 30 models used for the last IPCC report have any sort of QBO has explosive implications, when you think about it.

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^^^^

Thanks guys! 

Some Far Away, thanks for the info, Re. QBO and EC seasonal model. 

Here's the second winter 2016/17 update:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking at the QBO, solar activity, ENSO, lot's of analogues and more...

Will add the video to the winter updates page later this afternoon and they'll be a written summary for anybody that can't watch the video. EC seasonal interpretation also coming up this afternoon.

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Thanks Gavin, another enjoyable Sunday morning look ahead. Regarding the QBO and I wouldn't be surprised to see it switch to its easterly phase during the next month or two, I think a weak Niña increases our chances of a colder than average winter for sure just as long as we don't see an uptick in solar activty over the next few months. The EC seasonal forecasts maintain a colder than average outlook for the winter but this could easily flip as we approach the business end of the season as its gets to grips with other atmospheric drivers.

^^^

Thanks SC. 

I've heard that the UK Met think it might switch to easterly by the end of the year.

Did you mention the EC seasonal model update? 

As promised here's GWV exclusive interpretation (video and written post if you can't watch the vid) of the September 2016 update from the ECMWF seasonal model;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ecmwf-seasonal-model-forecast-interpretation.php

 

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Have added Second Winter 16/17 update to winter updates page with written summary for anybody that can't watch the video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php

And with that we're done for this weekend!

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A lot of work there Gavin, thanks for all your effort.

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Thanks Dogie! 

Yep, lot's of work and will only increase through to years end... This is where I start earning my "keep" hahahahaha!

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