If the 12z is as cold (or colder) I will take note.

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I hope it does but I'm happy with the few days at -5C without worrying about the outliers. Especially as a week after T+78 there are as many PTB's at +4C as there are at -5C ! The uncertainty date remains  a week ahead but at least we will be in cold by then rather than looking forward to it!.

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The GFS 06z does have some intriguing ebbs and flows of the cold over the next 10 days or so. Nice to see in the ENS 850 spread the OP and Control together later on, with some support, although the pack remains stubbornly higher.

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Still feeling a Feb 91 vibe think temps will be lower and lower on the charts with this set up, as the flow becomes continental it will become colder and colder

 

Is that a small warm sector and rain over Aberdeen Richard's house, though?

 

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Eyes down for the 12z GFS. Things just a tad further east early doors!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020512/gfs-1-36.png?12 

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Ready for the rollercoaster to continue? I'd be surprised (pleasantly) if the 12z GFS op was nearly as good in terms of cold and longevity compared with the 06z. We will find out soon.

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Easterly waft arriving at +66. Nice upper cold pool up flow. Seems pretty similar so far...

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12z GFS upper air cold pool growing in depth ( 4 DAM ) lower heights at 72
Cold pool now alligning into Norfolk & Suffolk - poss suffolk / london as well sub -8 around 84

Slightly better alignment at +72h with slightly deeper upper cold pool. Subtle changes but marginally for the better at this stage I'd say.

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Yep, better than the 6z at T78
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020512/gfs-0-78.png?12 
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020512/gfs-1-78.png?12 

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn842.gif  (Might even get some sleet here on the coast by this stage!)

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Definitely better but the Channels Islands shield activates at T90 halting the s/w progression of the cold uppers on this run!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020512/gfs-1-90.png?12 

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Cold on to us

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The low over Italy is casting its influence slightly further north which is given us a better alignment for the easterly at +78h. Deeper and larger cold pool to the east and slightly weather AH. All tiny differences but all in our favour for foodies right now.

Worth remembering when we get the same adjustments the other way!

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UKMO @ 96

 

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Subject to to further upgrades but here is the latest for Thursday:

...and snow flurries on prone coasts (as per my forecast from 21/12/16)

 

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UKMO looks better too at T96 with the easterly influence further west!
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2017020512/UW96-21.GIF?05-17 

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More differences creeping in at +114 as you'd expect. Trough to out west weaker but slower to sink south. S Andi high still extending towards Greenland but more droop over Russia. Let's see where this goes...

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It will be VERY interesting if the GEFS data back up the op up until this stage when they come out later. I'm still slightly shocked at seeing an easterly upgraded within the more reliable timescale. long may it continue. Now if it does happen, how long will it last?

Quite a decent UKMO run by day 5 too http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2017020512/UW120-21.GIF?05-17 

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One of the best 120 charts since 2013

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Yes the slower migration south of the trough to the west on GFS  gives us a slightly more southerly component to the easterly at +126h, but the Scandi High is still doing all the right things to the north. Not a problem on the UKMO! Needs to stop dragging its heels over russia though to let the cold out. A wind from Turkey just isn't the same. Still - beyond 120h it'll change more yet. Happy thatvthe short term if anything is an upgrade. I may yet see some light snow for my birthday on Thursday :)

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UK @ 120

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GFS not so good at T150 but well into FI by then!!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020512/gfs-1-150.png?12 

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I see the rollercoaster is still trundling about

Was  out getting cold on the bike earlier (avg temp of 4c and grey, winter cycling sucks) so didn't really do more than glance at the 6z ens and see the Op had managed to pick a cold solution. Given I regard the 6z as the most progressive and least likely to verify not much more to say other than need the 12z's to support it.

Judging by the 12z upto T147 it's not particularly keen on keeping it cold for most although initial hit from the cold pool is good

Be interesting to see if FI sinks the pattern or manages something better - think we need to see pressure falling over Eastern Europe for that personally.

 

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