Great photo!

---

Was that Darren’s back garden from 2010?

---

Interesting Tweet from Judah Cohen:

I would say that the vortex configuration is suggestive of strong westerlies across Europe and milder weather but we will see.

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) October 27, 2017

---

 

Interesting? More depressing...

 

(btw, who is Judah Cohen? )

---

Would this be the same Cohen who thrusted the OPI upon us a few winters ago stating upon its conclusions how we were looking at a colder than average winter. 😎

Yes Cohen heavily bought into the OPI theory along with Steve Murr a few winters back .However all things considered right now it would be a brave man to bet against his current analysis.

---

However he followed up with this..

The vortex configuration doesn't look stable to me so I would not take it as a sign for the winter.

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) October 27, 2017

---

This analysis? 

“The vortex configuration doesn't look stable to me so I would not take it as a sign for the winter.”

---

😂😂😂

I was meaning the previous quoted tweet - I think we saw a very unusual build up to winter last year however we still failed to see HLB that would impact the UK.

At the moment the overall factors don't look as poor as 2015 but that's not saying much.

 

 

 

---

To clarify for you SC, Ian seems to suggest it is wise not to read much into the current vortex configuration re. the winter outlook. 

For a second I thought he may have been insinuating the signs were there for a mild winter but having read the full Twitter thread I more fully appreciate his urging caution about mild winter predictions.

Edit: When I was writing that, Ian has appeared to clarifying that he only really trusts the experts when they predict mild winters, so we should discount the rest of their analyses. 

 

 

 

 

---

I'm in for a fiver.

---

I never do doc. 

The main gripe I have with Cohen is that he comes across as a bit manic, constantly changing his tune along with his mood on what the mid to long term may or may not be, that’s all well and good for rank amateurs like us but for a pro I expect a little more coherence. 🙂

His intro page says he is still focusing on Siberian snow cover effects on NH winter weather.

If the OPI delivers a few years' results, it might re-emerge. 

---

I think that this coming winter is a bit of an enigma even for the experts - yes most of the seasonal models are going for a strongly +NAO setup, but the BCC and ECM models are going for the complete opposite. I think it will not be straightforward.

---

Darren going to Siberia is like the mountain going to Mohammed! Only chance for us low level southerners to see the white stuff is to fly north!

---

Hello everyone!

I've been pretty uninterested for months now - the summer peetered out early and winter indicators looked uncertain. Now we are getting some meat on the bones as we see the actual snow cover advance take place and the early patterns in the strat establish together with an easterly QBO and weakish Nina. my end October assessment would be that I will be posting more this winter than for quite a few years ............ amplification people - we could end up in very much the wrong place but I think there will be a decent lottery this season.

On an observational note, it seems to me that leaf fall has occurred much later this year than in recent years. Over the last few years I would suggest that the bulk of the leaf fall has been completed by the end of September, yet this year it is still going on (at least in this part of the world!)

Can anyone tell me if this means anything with regard to the forthcoming winter, or is it just a sign of the higher temperatures we have had so far this autumn?

I’d be very surprised if much of the leaf fall in your neck of the woods is normally completed by the end of September. 

It certainly isn’t the case up here.

---

It certainly isn't the case down here, either! The back garden still has plenty of leaves on display, as do the trees at work and on the roads around here. And that's entirely normal - it's usually well into November before the majority of trees are bare.

I used to get quite excited at things like large numbers of berries on display, but as wiser people on here suggested it just reflects the summer we've had, rather than the winter we're about to have.

 

---

Similar here. Nothing out of the ordinary at all.

---

 

It's only in the last few days   we have had any meaningful fall here.   Still a way to go and I would  say another 2-3 weeks until the trees are predominately bare - about normal IMHO

 

---

I also think it's safe to say when the leaves fall has nothing to do with winter! It was last week in Nov 2010 when they fell here!

A fair number of leaves from the trees around where I live came off during two particularly windy nights this month; ex-storm Oephelia on 16th/17th October plus another rather breezy evening we had at the start of the month. Quite a lot of them here were actually starting to wither noticeably as far back as late August, probably on account of the naff "summer" we had here.

---

Evening Ian-

I think you will find that Cohen probably bought into it because it underpinned his commentary around the October +VE pressure anomaly around the Tamar peninsula in Russia ( So vis a vee a negative OPI profile was an identical match for his October 'ideal' )

The bottom line is there have been some spectacular fails over the last few years from pretty much every contributor on here ( of which I include myself )

• But I also include you with the modern Winter theory that doesn't work as proved in 09 & 10 - as you intimated we could never get proper cold synoptics again


• Then of course the many fails of the ECM monthly - that has been a running joke for the last 2 years


• You have the seasonal models that have been equally as useless ( with the exception of predicting the on-going warmth over the pole - for example last year take the JAMSTEC model missed the 15-20c negative departures over Russia in November


• The forecasts from certain quarters relating to the stratosphere & teleconnections - whilst good with a match to the AO, less so in the NAO- Although I do certainly see the ease with forecasting very Mild Decembers I very strong EL NINO December

 

So as the curtain raises on this Winter, as ever the form horse will be something around or just slightly above the long term seasonal Norm - this is particularly underpinned by the growing positive polar anomaly -  This will certainly modify any Cold airmass we bring in especially ones from the North- so we start from a disadvantaged point. Contrary to everything pointing to mild though to date no one has ever pinpointed a particular strong negative phase of the AO & NAO & as we head through late October we do have indicators that the overall zonal wind will be weaker than usual & prone to disturbances in the Easterly QBO phase & neutral NINA -

so on reflection I am ( as usual ) hopeful as well as optimistic of some opportunities for snow this Winter, maybe with some extra interest this year as ive moved to a part of NW kent that's @ around 160M with 230M just a mile away. The land is an old orchard so thus far has tracked about 2-3c colder at night than my previous location just 3m ASL & 200M from the thames at Greenhithe which always saw rain & sleet from anything other than Easterly set ups !

 

best

S