Interesting Andy but we have seen before that analogues are less reliable indicators in the modern era.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Andy

What figures are you using for the QBO? I don't follow some of your analysis. For example the QBO in autumn 1962 was massively negative, it reached -31 in October which is not what your analysis above says. It looks like you may have used data at the 40hPa level whereas the standard QBO figures are taken using the 30hPa data which is quite different.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Rather than clutter up the MOD thread and the fact that I’ve nothing else better to to do I thought I’d start the ball rolling. Here’s a cold weather fans nirvana winter forecasts, to be honest I’ve no idea who he is and what his track records like but who cares when it shows what you want. 😁

http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/ADVANCE%20PREDICTIONS%20WINTER%202017%20to%202018.pdf 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Care to explain why you believe that to be the case, Ian?

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Not much time at the moment David, but suggest you look at Steve's post on t'other side - 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88576-winter-2017-2018-hopes-thoughts-and-any-early-forecasts/?page=14

We've seen numerous occasions in recent years when there is speculation of what 'should' happen when x=y=whatever...but the zonality rolls on regardless. 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Not much time at the moment David, but suggest you look at Steve's post on t'other side - 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88576-winter-2017-2018-hopes-thoughts-and-any-early-forecasts/?page=14

We've seen numerous occasions in recent years when there is speculation of what 'should' happen when x=y=whatever...but the zonality rolls on regardless. 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

I seem to recall that last winter, you started a thread on the weather forum entitled "Zonality Challenge" or something like that, in which you quite confidently predicted that the zonal spell which commenced around mid-December last year would last for circa 6 weeks. Unless my memory is failing me here, that zonal spell didn't last for long beyond New Year.

Last winter, although mild/very mild overall, was not dominated by zonality to anything like the same extent that the previous winter was and that of 2013/14, to mention another recent one.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I seem to recall that last winter, you started a thread on the weather forum entitled "Zonality Challenge" or something like that, in which you quite confidently predicted that the zonal spell which commenced around mid-December last year would last for circa 6 weeks. Unless my memory is failing me here, that zonal spell didn't last for long beyond New Year.

Last winter, although mild/very mild overall, was not dominated by zonality to anything like the same extent that the previous winter was and that of 2013/14, to mention another recent one.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I believe I was the winner with Dec 29 - just a few days after Ian suggested we were looking at six weeks of it. But however  annoying the self-aggrandising delivery, he is essentially just repeating what all of us know in our bones: mid winter easterlies are like hen’s teeth, winters are more often westerly affairs and deep cold is hard to come by. Something has changed in the last 25 years.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

I believe I was the winner with Dec 29 - just a few days after Ian suggested we were looking at six weeks of it. But however  annoying the self-aggrandising delivery, he is essentially just repeating what all of us know in our bones: mid winter easterlies are like hen’s teeth, winters are more often westerly affairs and deep cold is hard to come by. Something has changed in the last 25 years.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

I know I'll be crucified for stating the obvious, but the prevailing wind direction in the UK is west, and always has been, regardless of the time of year, hence our winters being very mild relative to our northerly latitude.

This isn't to say that easterlies haven't declined in frequency, but they were of course never the norm. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

The CPF update does favour a westerly dominated regime with above average temperatures most likely. This is largely due to the general global warmth. It also points out that there are factors (QBO, ENSO) which favour more blocked patterns in early winter

Originally Posted by: TomC 

There is an increasing signal that blocked patterns will become more dominant throughout this period. This will bring a greater chance of colder and drier conditions under the influence of high pressure. There will still be spells of rain and showers as fronts move across the UK, but these will be interspersed with drier, colder and brighter days. Temperatures will initially be near or slightly below normal but with an increased chance of below normal temperatures later in the period, with an increased likelihood of frosts.

The latter part of your post would certainly fit in with the recent Met Office updates for late Nov/early Dec, which if anything has hardened in terms of language:

Scant detail of where the block would - or could - be. It suggests the high will sit over us but, with no indication of whether the fronts mentioned will move through over the north or south, it's difficult to ascertain whether the block will pull back to the north or the south. Hopefully - obviously - it will be blocked to our north.

Any tips on how the Met are thinking on this, Tom?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Is exactly the point.

I'd be interested to know if there've been similar periods of what is, after all, just a couple of decades with a reduced occurrence of winter easterlies, because it seems that people who are normally statistically sound and have a fantastic understanding of the weather, are cutting corners before concluding that we're in some sort of weird new era of winters.

As I've said before, even with a lack of winter easterlies it hasn't stopped many areas of the UK experiencing what has been, since the turn of the century at least, a variable but overall pretty average collective of winters (and certainly better than the 87-99 period)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

The CPF update does favour a westerly dominated regime with above average temperatures most likely. This is largely due to the general global warmth. It also points out that there are factors (QBO, ENSO) which favour more blocked patterns in early winter

Originally Posted by: TomC 

Going back to SC's original post, as this chap's forecast calls a cold and long winter ahead, I was rather hoping his autumn forecast would validate.

Sadly according to him, this weekend was supposed to see a major disruptive weather event, which he even put in big red letters!

I'm now clinging to the hope, as highlighted in Gav's video, that wetter Septembers can lead to colder winters - and the early autumn rain fattens up the berries - meaning his winter forecast will indeed validate! 

Originally Posted by: Stolen Snowman 

I anticipate a winter of two halves, with prospects for cold and snow in late November and through December.

But given that La Nina looks increasingly probable as we head to the end of the year, I expect winter will revert to the usual crud we get in this region soon after the New Year. So a promising start and then normal service will be resumed at the start of 2018 is my gut feeling.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum