Ok, so this is the way I see it at the moment:
ENSO - Borderline -neutral/weak La Nina likely - slightly favours a cold Winter
eQBO - timing/amplitude should favour a colder Winter
Solar cycle position - favours a cold Winter
Atlantic SST Profile - favours a milder Winter
October synoptic anomalies - favour a cold Winter
So on paper it should be a cold Winter, but it would just be our bad luck if the Atlantic SST's trumped everything else wouldn't it!!
The really intriguing thing is that 1962 does seem to be the best analogue for 2017 in terms of having similar ENSO set up, similar eQBO profile, and around the same position in the Solar Cycle, plus October 1962's synoptic anomalies were similar to 2017.
Furthermore, I've noticed that Novembers that have higher than normal pressure over Greenland especially in the second half of the month, are generally followed by cold Winters. The model outlook certainly points towards a lengthy spell of Greenland blocking, so I think another reason to be more optimistic.
Also there's no reason to be downbeat about the UK missing out on significant cold weather this month. The Novembers of 1984, 1995, 2009 and 2012 failed to bring in any notably cold weather, and instead produced mild cyclonic spells with southerly winds. All of the Winters that followed were cold and wintry.
So at the moment, I would lean towards it being colder than average this Winter, but still a bit early to say for sure. If we get a strong Greenland High for the rest of this month, then that increases the chances.
Originally Posted by: Andy J