theweatheroutlook

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Gandalf The White
28 November 2017 19:21:00


Let's be honest it could be far worse. If this is correct 850s are over 20C above average in Greenland right now. 


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


And still 22 on the snow row....



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Bertwhistle
28 November 2017 19:24:25

 


The mid-Atlantic low is now forecast as slower in its march to upset things: I think some of the short-medium term downgrade over the last 24hours was due to its sudden and assertive appearance, preventing what looked like a natural evolution of a northerly with a wide trajectory and long fetch around the eastern face of the high over Greenland. At this range, any improvement is welcome.


 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_168_mslp850.png?cb=879


Solved.


 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
fairweather
28 November 2017 19:32:01


 


upwards. Nonetheless, as you say in the medium term it's not looking especially warm.


(Thanks for adding the 30-year mean btw, it really helps IMO to see at a glance just how cold (or not) the runs actually are. )


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Seconded. I have missed that, keeps a perspective.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gusty
28 November 2017 19:59:30

Wow ! Check out the 24c spread on these tonight. A new signal for some notable mid December warmth ? Yes..You could probably bet your house on it 


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Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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Quantum
28 November 2017 20:47:28

Looking at all the ECMWF ensembles at day 10 and categorizing them:


Iberian/Bartlett/Euro High (Very zonal): ||||| ||||| || (12)


Mid Atlantic high (northerly): ||||| ||||| | (11)


UK High (anticyclonic): ||||| ||||| | (11)


Greenland high (northerly): ||||| ||| (8)


Atlantic Southwesterly: ||||| (5)


Cyclonic, Average temps: ||||| (5)


Big downgrade from yesterday but still ~50% decent runs. The main issue is rising heights over Europe. The high latitude pattern is overall pretty good but it gets ruined by high pressure building over Europe. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
28 November 2017 20:52:03


I've still got the 00z ensemble mean chart at T+240 and the main difference is that the 12z shows a second low centred over the southern Baltic. The effect is marginal over the British Isles.


Otherwise very similar: trough over Newfoundland and trough over Scandinavia and ridge up into southern Greenland.  Surprisingly consistent.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Joe Bloggs
28 November 2017 21:46:35


Looking at all the ECMWF ensembles at day 10 and categorizing them:


Iberian/Bartlett/Euro High (Very zonal): ||||| ||||| || (12)


Mid Atlantic high (northerly): ||||| ||||| | (11)


UK High (anticyclonic): ||||| ||||| | (11)


Greenland high (northerly): ||||| ||| (8)


Atlantic Southwesterly: ||||| (5)


Cyclonic, Average temps: ||||| (5)


Big downgrade from yesterday but still ~50% decent runs. The main issue is rising heights over Europe. The high latitude pattern is overall pretty good but it gets ruined by high pressure building over Europe. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Those bloody European heights!! Again!! 🤢🤢🤢


Still not a bad set though. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Whether Idle
28 November 2017 21:57:02


 


Those bloody European heights!! Again!! 🤢🤢🤢


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Makes me think of "Berne Winters"

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
JACKO4EVER
28 November 2017 22:05:16
Good old SWZ
Where did he go to ????? Perhaps measuring the barometric pressure in Berne or some other distant land,,,,,
Joe Bloggs
28 November 2017 22:16:29
Notty
28 November 2017 22:24:27
The Channel Low has appeared again

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2 
Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Joe Bloggs
28 November 2017 22:24:44

Blimey - this could cause some problems.


 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017112818/gfs-0-180.png?18


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017112818/gfs-1-186.png?18


What on earth tomorrow will bring.. who knows! 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Joe Bloggs
28 November 2017 22:34:10

18z GFS is a cold run with the potential for A LOT of snow, especially in Wales and the Midlands. 


Just maybe it’s on to something and we’ll see similar runs tomorrow. 😊 fingers crossed. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Gooner
28 November 2017 22:37:27

Stunning 18z

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


White Meadows
28 November 2017 22:44:40


Blimey - this could cause some problems.


 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017112818/gfs-0-180.png?18


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017112818/gfs-1-186.png?18


What on earth tomorrow will bring.. who knows! 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Quite a bit of a deluge there.

David M Porter
28 November 2017 22:45:30


Stunning 18z


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



I think that will send most of us here to bed with a smile on our faces! Tomorrow's runs will be interesting for sure.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
some faraway beach
28 November 2017 22:45:58

Classic pub run. Nationwide blizzard!


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Gooner
28 November 2017 22:46:07


Quite a bit of a deluge there.


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Blizzards

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Arcus
28 November 2017 22:49:31
Interesting to see the latest NH SLP verification stats on the GFS 4 run cycle. I'd thought that the order of verification would go 12z, 00z, 06z, 18z. In fact at 5 day range its 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z. At 8 days its 00z, 06z, 18z, 12z. At 10 days its 18z, 00z, 06z, 12z.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Solar Cycles
28 November 2017 22:58:58
Good old pub run brings an early Xmas cheer for all. So now the pendulum swings back in favour of cold after the early shaky start to the day, all good fun but just another variation of what could happen post +144.
Rob K
28 November 2017 23:16:12

Interesting to see the latest NH SLP verification stats on the GFS 4 run cycle. I'd thought that the order of verification would go 12z, 00z, 06z, 18z. In fact at 5 day range its 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z. At 8 days its 00z, 06z, 18z, 12z. At 10 days its 18z, 00z, 06z, 12z.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


So in other words totally random? ;)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Arcus
28 November 2017 23:18:40


 


So in other words totally random? ;)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


There's a trend there for fans of the 18z I guess.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
nsrobins
28 November 2017 23:29:06
I see the forum has a new ride this season, and it’s faster and scarier than any rollercoaster we’ve see before.
The 18Z GFS delivers a near nationwide blizzard of 1962 proportions. Cache it, screengrab it or simply etch it into your memory as THE series of charts of recent times because, odds on, it won’t be there in the morning.
Or maybe it will .... 😉
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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