Yes it still looks decent up 7 days out. Beyond then, who knows but I wouldn’t say anything ten days out was set in stone as previously highlighted rather nicely in this thread. Definitely a seasonal start to early winter.

very true doc, that was a great post reminding us all how futile this job really is that far out. Would be nice to see that as a more regular feature on the site, i know verification stats are available but would be interesting for example to see what the big three predicted for the current day 5 days previous.

Not sure if it's just my tablet but since you posting charts the last 24hra Gooner they appear as

huge wide posts for me.

All ok on my Samsung tablet.

What I like about the fax charts (apart from the fronts being drawn on) is that at this point you can click between T+72 and the T+84 with both displaying 12UTC Sunday, the difference being the latter was derived 12 hours earlier. Look at the differences in the occlusion across the South and S.E. It might not look that massive but those small differences with its position will make a big difference on where it will snow and rain and how much. It all looks very much in the melting pot still to me.

It has never looked like being settled. The range of outcomes should narrow as we get closer to Sunday but from experience even the 00z Sunday runs won’t be exactly right. How many times has the precipitation pattern on the radar looked like the predicted one even 6 hours out?  Additionally the short range models change with every run.

I’d say that nothing is certain yet except that a slider will move south-east. Based on recent output most likely it will traverse the country somewhere south of a line from The Wirral to The Wash and possibly as far south as the Severn Estuary to Kent. Even that might be too tight a spread at the moment.

ECM shows everything further south, it seems, with snow in the SE on Monday. Sunday's snow is centred at the same latitude as Birmingham.

You can see all the details here:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/great-britain/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20171212-0000z.html

(That's the full ECM output, in 3-hourly intervals).

Shamelessly stolen from NW, the ECM ensemble meteograms for London, including (but not limited to) 850s, 2m temperatures, snowfall etc. Interesting to see that yesterday's 12z suite actually had some -10 850s, albeit in the coldest 10% of members.

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/vorhersage/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/schnee

Looking at the Met Office animation run for Banbury ,its giving us Snow for Sunday and Monday ...........going to be v interesting to see how this pans out, a mare for forecasting