And you just know the 12z FFS will come off, giving the SE'ers plenty of snow but leaving my region dry

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As they say, ‘don’t expect anything, then you won’t be disappointed’.  But I will feel sorry for anyone who’s expecting snow next week and doesn’t get it!  That’ll be me then!  

I am trying so hard not to get excited but it’s not working and you’d think after being let down twice in December, I ought to know better. But I’m somehow able to half convince myself it’ll be third time lucky!  

Sometimes being an optimist can be frustrating and I feel like half emptying my half full glass.  I’ve even thought about taking a leaf out of Richards book. Now that would be drastic!  I’ll decide next week!  

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Would be nice, only 21 years since the last time...

Anyway, as the odds of something that hasn't happened for a fifth of a century are so low, I can't imagine it'll come off this time. Enjoy your snow this week.

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I know I should take these MetO and Beeb apps with huge dose of salt but they’ve been steadily downgrading snow prospects IMBY over the last 36 hours, we're now looking at a few hours of sleet before drier weather takes hold into the weekend. 😂😂😂

Yet another 'D' day: dismal, damp, drizzly, dark, driech, dreary, diabolical, depressing, detestable 

The contrast with exactly a year ago when I enjoyed a lovely walk under clear skies round the snow and ice covered Aboyne Loch could not be more extreme. It was the ideal winters day whereas the scene outside today is almost indescribably horrid.

 

To think that was during the one of the worst winters on record as well. This revolting January is far far worse than anything last winter threw at us. It is taking the trend towards extreme nothingness to a whole new level.

We have had only 12mm rain but just four dry days, only five days have managed as much as 15 minutes sunshine and, while there has been four very mild mins above 4C plus another of 3.8C in the past week, the highest temperature all month has been just 6.7C

Absolutely useless, horrendous month. No good sunrises or frosts during the week and this putrid write-off weekend, means no opportunity for photography. Plus it's so horrible out there today with the vile SE wind rattling away I doubt I'll even leave the house. 

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Very disappointed - i thought after that chillier spell last Sat/Sunday 7th Jan - we had some cold zonality followed by a northerly this weekend and then an easterly as the LP swings eastwards and then sinks south - but nothing is materializing and the jet decides to take a track some 1000 miles to the north so it's back to status quo. Wet and windy week ahead. Nothing cold or wintry away from Northern hills.

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A little concerned that the QBO- phase doesn’t sync with COD 3 and 4 and the weak La Niña signal overides the 20% prob. of mountain torque with the forward momentum of the Pacific Ridge. I blame a poorly modelled displaced PV inducing an erroneous -NAO and AO but you all know that.

Not a quote and not a gripe at these sort of posts but gobbledegook like this is becoming increasingly frustrating 🤢

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Look at in layman’s terms Neil....... We're clueless as to why. 😁

I am expecting this winter to end up as another 1/10 for much of the South. I don’t foresee anything resembling real winter in the next fortnight to three weeks.

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 That’s fighting torque! 

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It feels like its going that way doesn't it. 

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Yup! Hear that ticking sound? That's the "you've got 4 weeks left of deep cold potential" clock, making its regular appearance.

Of course, you can't write winter off just yet (or even the whole of January, although that's getting closer...) but you know if you had to put a bet down it'd be for a decent easterly spell to not occur.

I do wonder, sometimes, whether I'll ever see another easterly. 21 years is a hell of a long time and it means that a good chunk of the population down here haven't seen one... no wonder they all get excited at an inch of sopping wet foamy snow, having never seen powder; you can see why they moan about 5C in a stiff westerly being "bitterly cold" when they've not experienced a howling easterly gale with a high of -2!

Those things used to happen at least once a decade (yes, even in the 1930s) yet since 1997... zip. That both cheeses me off and worries me, as each year that goes by with our usual mush makes me realise that things really do seem to have changed.

The upcoming AMO switch is, IMO, the only real chance we have of getting back the winters we remember from the 90s and earlier. And if that fails, well...

(At least there are still holidays to areas with snow. For example, I've seen more snow in Alaska and Japan than I've seen here in years - and that was in May 2015 and October 2017 respectively. Canada this October promises a similar snowfest. I know others have also travelled to see snow. You would think, living where we do so close to the Arctic that this really wouldn't be necessary, but at least it offers an option. Nothing, though, beats the feeling of watching the snow swirling around in your own back garden.)

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Plenty of acronyms over on "the other side"! The fun thing though is that they never seem to realise all the GLAAM, MJO and yes, mountain torque stuff is just another way of looking at the GFS charts that we all use every day. They're just as prone to failure as the plain old 500hPa charts, yet for whatever reason they seem to have acquired an air of mystery about them.

Truth be told, I feel a lot of people go overly techie just so they can say "I told you" when a cold spell does eventually come off. Yet if you look at the boring old 850hPa ensembles you can tell just as much - if you consistently see cold straggler ensemble members it means that yes, there's a chance of a cold spell.

(That's not to slight those who genuinely know what they're on about when it comes to using the techie stuff, rather than those who think they know what they're on about. They're few and far between, however and they tend to get snapped up by weather companies and then told not to post too much on forums!)

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Yes and a big rant this is the problem with my rants is that they are repetitive so sorry you may have heard this before.

After that pathetic easterly last weekend I thought cold zonality would be fun - lot's of sleet. hail, soft hail or maybe wet snow!? NO!

But this rant is the fact that the models have flipped totally and even if this week wouldn't provide any sustain cold or snow for the SW at least we would have been seeing some cold zonality and frost as winds turn northerly by next weekend, then of course one thinks that there is the potential of an easterly and SSW developing just if this doesn't got to plan or even if we didn't get the northerly or easterly at least the SSW would give us hope but guess further down the line in Feb!? You know what I am going to say...shall I say it or not!?

No! - i'll keep my mouth shut but the USA /Canada had 2 weeks of severe cold/bitter wintry weather and this wasn't forecast either not by any models. It's just when you think 'everything is in the right place' - As Radiohead would say). -

You see the USA incl southern and eastern states warm up giving a sign that Europe will cool down
We are in mid -winter now.

Some factors:

1. We have HP over the Arctic or weaker polar vortex.
2. We are in a La Nina winter
3. Solar Minimum/fewer sunspots
4. We are in an easterly QBO 

5. We had increase build up of Siberian snow cover.

6. It was a very active Atlantic Hurricane season.

You would have thought that there is a chance that one day a cold spell will occur and last for more than a few days and actually give us some wintry weather for the first time since 2013!? BUT NO...what happens - HEIGHTS rise over Azores and it all goes pear shaped, even the SSW has been pushed off!

I really don't know with this country and why every time we see signs in GFS and more of a cold spell or and SSW or an ideal set-up for a sustained cold spell it get's taken away from us!?

I really had good vibes about this, this time.

Those in the Midlands and North who saw snow in December were lucky - if it wasn't for that snowfall event around 10th December 2017 then we would be very dissatisfied - the thing is it's never been cold for the SW - Even winter 2016/17 saw overnight lows of -5c. We have not fallen below freezing for a month now.

I wonder if we should draft up a 'winter is over' thread.

I just don't get it - why such a flip? Was it the height rises in the Azores? Why isn't that LP sinking southwards end of this coming week into weekend to bring us that cold north easterly with frosty clear cold nights!?

LP systems were always going NW to SE and the jet was dipping to the south some models forecast it to dip as far south as North Africa then all of a sudden the jet shifts northwards and it's not like it's a 100 miles north but 2000 miles north from the start of next week thus sending LP systems into Norway and Svalbard ruining our chances of any blocking over Scandinavia to build, whilst heights are rising over Azores. - Now the jet is taking our LP systems on a SW to NE direction.

That pathetic easterly last weekend was a big waste of weather too! So far we have wasted 2 weeks of winter giving little or no frost or any cold spell and with it being cool and wet this week followed by milder this would mean 3-4 weeks of winter has been wasted come the end! January has been a total write off so far.

Very disappointed indeed. But what can i say? Looking at the wider picture it's only the weather really!? So WHAT!?

Just hope one day we will see a cold spell in winter and for it to last for more than a few days with proper snow lasting all day and an easterly wind with severe frosts. The sort of cold spells we use to get pre March/April 2013.

It can happen because It happened all the winters I can remember falling and settling and lasting etc = (1984/1985, 1986/1987, 1990/1991, 1991/1992, 1993/1994, 1995/1996, 1999/2000, 2000/2001, 2001/2002, 2002/2003, 2004/2005, 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/2011) (December 2010 to remember), (2012/13).

So it can happen we can get a sustained severe or bitterly cold spell lasting more than a week just not had it since March 2013. 

People say we live in a rubbish part of the world for snow given the Gulf Stream and surrounded by water but and a big BUT we have had cold spells before - We were surround by water and had the gulf stream back in those above years. What about winters of 1978, winter of 62/3 winter of 47 etc? Yes cold winters are becoming rare - the last colder than average winter was perhaps 2012/13 but even then it wasn't that cold. Winter started late and continued into spring.

Given the above 6 factors you have seen - the list. Ok we don't have the tripol as i have been watching GavsWeatherVids but the fact we can't get any sustained cold given the above factors is beyond a joke! 

Anyway all!? - Wrap up warm as this Arctic blast hits the UK this week as they say! Ha! The irony of it.

 

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Max here today through daylight hrs was 4c....down to 2.5c now...warm up due overnight before the "bitter cold Atlantic" descends for 48hrs....this in theory could be the coldest max I see for sometime.....irony is a form of comedy they say...

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Nail on head.👍🏻

 

Ah well, looks like another potentially cold spell of winter has gone pear shaped, I thought...as did many...that it was virtually nailed on for a week of below average temps and snow for most regions, the Jet was set to be angled NW-SE to the west of Ireland keeping us in the cold flow with a possible major snow event midweek, but now it's just going to be cold for a day or so then stormy and wet for most then slowly getting milder...!! I too am at a loss as to how this keeps happening when all the building blocks are supposedly in the right place, I'm no expert but I've been recording/monitoring weather for 30yrs and things have changed greatly in the last decade or so, we're half way through winter now and I think this week was our best shot at a sustained cold spell, we might get the odd snowfall during Feb/Mar but they disappear quickly, 3 and a half winters and I've only recorded 5 days of snow falling...!!!

 

Indeed thanks ! Glad I am not the only one. What I would like to know is why it went tit's up? When things were looking so so good. SO let's leave the SSW potential out for a sec - we were still on course to have a week of colder North westerlies then northerly!? This is short to medium term. Also that disturbance taking a more northerly track too!?

Was it the disturbance' as mentioned above in N. Atlantic / i.e the trough on Wednesday or the fact that heights kept rising over Azores!? What caused it!? January is the best time for sustained cold/snow when nights are longer etc but it never occurs in January. I don't want a cold March or April!! That being said we will probably get a SSW in Feb to give us a cold March/April which is sods law. So any snow that does fall will quickly melt as the days get longer and sun gets stronger.

 

At least you're up in Yorkshire! As for the south esp the South west it's a 'NO GO'.

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I'm one of those people.  Well, I wouldn't describe recent weather as bitterly cold but I have found myself complaining about how cold it feels like most other people do, and I have experienced weather much colder, both in the UK and abroad. 

As much as I love snow, I feel very much like a summer person these days. I've even been tempted to take a holiday somewhere nice and warm!

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Just want to add another rant to my previous rant  - Looks like things won't turn colder for the south west anyway apart from in the showers of rain.

Today's maximum temperature in Exeter was 6.5c.- Which is seasonably cool or average to a bit below.

So leaving the drop in temperatures during showers out of the equation - Tomorrow we expect a max of 9c Tuesday a max of +8c Wed a max of +10c and Thursday +8c and Friday +7c. So it looks like today is set to be the coldest day of the week then! ha! Classic! Look forward to this Arctic blast and +8c! ha! NOT)

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What is in interesting though, is that the week ahead was always forecast to be unsettled.

For a while, that forecast of unsettled weather had been downgraded quite a lot and a couple of days ago, it had looked as though the week ahead would actually be fairly dry here, apart from tonight's band of rain. Once that passed through, we would then be in a north-westerly air stream over time which for here in Edinburgh, is usually just dry at this time of year, though still fairly cold. That midweek weather system was then being shunted further south by the models to the point where it had looked that there might be some snow from that down south with Scotland possibly missing out on that altogether, but staying in the cold air.

Now though, that forecast of an unsettled week ahead has now been upgraded once again, and is now actually closer to what that original forecast was in the first place. . Instead of getting what would have been a dry north-westerly, we are now looking likely to be in a straight westerly which then brings an increased risk of showers filtering through the Forth-Clyde Valley towards the Edinburgh area, which in turn means that we could possibly end up getting those showers after all. On top of that, the midweek low pressure system has been pushed further north again, and even Gavin P. has said in today's videos that this low pressure system is now looking likely to be officially named by either the UK Met Office or The Irish Republic's Met Eirann (if that happens, it will then be known as Storm Fionn, which is the next name in that list). That would then leave us getting a lot of rain and milder temperatures from that. The latest models still have the worst of the wind being just to the south of here, but that only needs to be shunted a bit further north for us to then be facing the full fury of those winds, here in the Central Belt in Scotland.

So, this is not exactly the cold outlook that the models were point to just recently and although they did correctly say that we would have some rain during tonight and going into tomorrow (as at 10pm tonight, that has now amounted to 2.4 mm at Edinburgh Gogarbank, along with 0.8 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh), the forecast models even at the very last minute have clearly, underestimated the strength of the wind which we have had along with that. In the last hour, the wind at Edinburgh Gogarbank has gusted up to 47.6mph from the SSW, which is very impressive indeed when you consider that we don't even have a named storm on the scene just now. Yet, even the latest forecasts have said nothing about it being anything like as windy as it has turned out to be and there aren't even any yellow warnings for that, which have been published by the Met Office who were obviously completely caught out by that. So once again, this is yet another one of these situations where you have wonder what chance these models have of getting that midweek forecast correct when they could even get things properly right for tonight, even at that very last minute.

 

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I’ll just leave this here... 

😂😂

 

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another "snowy" northwesterly.

Another very cold wind with rain for us.

Would love to experience a wind based snow even like the east get, but for us in the north west, than little pool of water called the irish sea seems to be constantly set to "warm" the above snow charts demonstrate this.

Interestingly, im sure the atlantic slightly warmer on the west coast of ireland, yet they get snow on the coast. How infuriating is that?!

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I'd also point out that the Irish Sea doesn't seem to prevent the coastal fringes of North Wales and Cumbria from getting snow!

Think this is just a case of it being the wrong side of marginal. Appreciate I'm inland a bit, but I've had plenty of snow from the NW'ern quadrant.

This winter, though, appears to be a case of everything conspiring against the Merseyside/Lancs/Gtr Manchester/Cheshire region away from elevated areas. Barring some transient and thin coverings, we missed out on the December falls, and, after seeming to be in a sweet spot, look very much like this will deliver something between 'nothing' and 'not worth writing home about'

I'm waiting for that once-in-a-lifetime event. Ideally a mini-Day After Tomorrow, with about 10 foot of level snow. Utterly catastrophic. Would love to have to survive for a couple of weeks on what we had in the house (although I'd like to have some warning to get a couple of generators and diesel first! )

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An atrocious chart. Sick to death of the number of times I have seen rubbish like this over the past 7 years

The NE missing out as far inland as Aboyne, which is supposed to be one of the snowiest low level areas in the UK, while the Galloway coast gets covered is just a sick joke

The lack of snow for inland Aberdeenshire over the past five years is beyond ridiculous, far more than the absence for Aberdeen itself. Aboyne and surrounding villages are supposed to average around 40 days of snow cover per year but are getting very little because of this continued garbage of polar air coming in on westerlies instead of northerlies

Braemar is likely to be less affected as it far enough west to be able to pick up snow from westerlies. When I took a trip out there on 13th February 2016, to see the only decent snowfall I have witnessed in years, there was nothing lying until west of Aboyne.

 

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