In these set ups -9 is usually key for our location.  We only get to -8 this time.  Close but no cigar.

-10 is the guarantee of lowland snow .

Good night! 

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How accurate is HIRLAM? 

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam/hirlamuk-1-39-0.png?04-23 

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam/hirlamuk-0-39-0.png?04-23 

Looks really good. Hmm. 

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Well, that was a washout, pretty much as the models (except GFS) were showing. The death knell was the loss of the -10C isotherm that, at one stage, looked like reaching Kent. Without it, even at night, it simply wasn't cold enough to bring snow all the way down.

It's a shame, as the North Sea did its convection stuff just fine, even with a rumble or two of thunder thrown in. It's just too damned warm these days!

(The Downs should look pretty this morning, but that's scant consolation.)

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The latest model output suggests that tomorrow's frontal system will pep up a little as it reaches the East Anglia and the Home Counties and down into the SE. Enough to leave a 1-2 cm layer for quite a large area by Wednesday morning.

As Quantum had said in the MOD thread, the front moving SE through Thursday into Friday looks much more active and if the warm sector gets squeezed out it might yet deliver a surprise. Definitely something to watch closely over the next 48-72 hours.

Wednesday 0600 snow cover map from WRF

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The METO tend to agree as a new warning just issued for mainly East Anglia!!

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-07

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The warning zone starts 5 miles east of me.....

 

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Since I had to travel to Deal this morning for a dentist appointment, I got to see my first actual snow cover in 5 years as I passed through Capel being at 150 asl. I was also dismayed at the number of crashed and abandoned cars along the way. Seriously since when 1 cm of slush was enough to cause widespread traffic mayhem? However, on the way back to Folkestone just before 12 pm, all of the snow exposed to the winter sunshine were gone.

PS: Offending rotten molar has been successful and painlessly pulled out, so I'm feeling quite pleased with myself over that.

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Just posted in the Net Weather regional thread (NW)

 

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Latest model guidance for tomorrow's front...

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=29&mode=1&map=5 - NMM

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpege.php?ech=28&mode=1&map=330 - Arpege

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=26&mode=1&map=510 - ICON

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=29&mode=1&map=430 - HIRLAM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_30_43.png - GFS

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/180205_0000_36.png - ECM

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2018/02/05/basis06/ukuk/prec/18020612_0506.gif - EURO4

All in all we have very good agreement now of the front making it across the NW without too much of a fizzle. Not a single model completely destroys the front before it clears our region, but the models disagree on the intensity of the precipitation. GFS and HIRLAM are keener for some heavier precipitation, ICON and EURO4 only really show light stuff towards Manchester and the Peaks. The models also disagree on the front's timing - the peak appears to be the morning around 10am but this varies by model.

For a change, more northern and western parts of the NW look likely to get the heavier snow - there could be some issues at rush hour in Liverpool and Preston for example. If we do get any accumulation, there could be some melting in the afternoon before a re-freeze after sunset.

It's notable that Euro4 is not modelling much snow accumulation across the region and this should be noted. 

The front could easily be more potent than the NWP suggests, but we won't know until the early hours. 12z guidance won't help us much IMO - it's a radar job from now.

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I forgot Arome. Looks ok too.

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arome.php?ech=27&mode=101&map=30

 

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Looks fairly good for my location and that ties in with MetEireann's yellow weather warning for the Eastern half of Ireland. I would be worried about amounts, though. MetEireann are suggesting accumulations of no more than 3cm.

The rainfall is just beginning to appear on the MetEireann radar https://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp  Not exactly impressive, is it?

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Fronts are very fickle like this and they often fizzle and re-intensify  seemingly randomly as they move SE.

I think for this part of the world, 1cm is about as good as we can hope for, unless the front is more intense than currently modelled. 

Surface parameters look likely to support snow however, which is always a positive. 

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That's my impression too and I've seen fronts like this one bring little or nothing in the way of rain or else pep up and give something more substantial. The funny thing is that at other times of the year, you'd barely notice. At least, whatever you get ought to lie on the ground at your location, it should be cold enough at least. I think that we'll see some snow here but it might be a touch too mild to lie, given that it's not likely to be heavy.

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Over the years I've noticed this with many frontal troughs: what looks quite clean and homogeneous on the lower res models turns out to be anything but: quite variable, with pockets of precipitation appearing and fizzling and drier slots appearing from nowhere.  Some of the higher res models depict this to an extent but seldom in the way it actually happens.

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Good way of putting it. Most of the time we lose out - but very occasionally we end up with more (I don't think any model in either Jan 10 or Dec 10 showed here getting anything like the level of snow we ended up with)

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Those 'dry slots' are my Mrs' Snow shield and I reckon it'll be working fine over the Calder Valley through tues !( though she wasn't ready for the flurries today!)

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We have total cloud today and it's 3.5 C. I'm worried that the temperature wont fall much ahead of the front so it could arrive late evening at 2 or 3 C. Can anyone reassure me?

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If this is any consolation, I can tell you that the dew point was below freezing at 3pm this afternoon at both Edinburgh Airport (-2°C) and Edinburgh Gogarbank (-2.5°C). I don't know about the botanic gardens though because there hasn't been any update for there since 1pm this afternoon although the dew point was below freezing at that time as well at -0.2°C.

That at least, gives us a chance of seeing some snow depending on what the upper air temperatures are like. However, we have been in this situation so many times before, only to then see the dew points jump up to above freezing again at the crucial time just before any precipitation arrives.

At 3pm, the actual temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank was 2.6°C and at Edinburgh Airport at that time, it was 3°C at that time. Since the temperature at Edinburgh Airport is only ever measured to the nearest 1°C, that could be anywhere between 2.5°C and 3.4°C. This makes thinks things a bit more marginal, but my guess is that what we get under the current circumstances, will probably be more of a sleety mixture with the majority of that in the north of Edinburgh in particular, consisting of rain.

 

 

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This is pretty much what Louise Lear was saying on the Beeb about an hour ago.

Basically, the front fizzles out by the time it gets to my neck of the woods. Once the remnants of the front have passed through it 'could' then reinvigorate itself as temperatures further cool.

You really couldn't make it up.

Edinburgh now.

And when the precip arrives.

Entirely snow from start to finish.

 

 

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To me, this is another example of why we could have done with getting that elusive first official air frost in 10 days last night because if that had happened, the temperature would have been starting off from a much lower point and with this cloud cover coming in, that might well well have resulted in the temperatures barely getting above freezing all day today which in turn, might have improved our chances of snow a great deal further.

However, that cloud cover came in just a bit too early last night to allow us to have that air frost and in the end, that could well be what scuppers our chances of getting some snow from tonight's weather system. Of course, I'm hoping that this isn't the case, but I have a funny feeling that this is what could well end up happening. On the positive side though, both the temperature and dew point are dropping just now which means that there is still some hope yet.

 

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https://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Reasonable levels of precipitation showing up on the MetEireann radar, even if it's a fairly narrow band. Rain so far, except at one station, Knock, which has some altitude.

https://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

However, it was only forecasted to turn to snow as it moved East. So far so good. Of course, as Joe Bloggs said, the level of precipitation can fizzle or intensify so all to play for.

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Fingers crossed here but some of the models seem to show rain on the back end of this front here...

Euro4 has light to mod snow moving down into the Midlands by 18hs.

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Yes, I worry about the risk of a slushy mess as other areas get a nice covering again. It could go either way I think.

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Wouldn’t have made any difference. We did get below zero briefly yesterday evening but as soon as the cloud arrived the temperature shot up and it’s been stuck around 2-3C since 1am

I’ve got no interest in tonight either way. Even if it does snow, anything that comes off a frontal set-up is always horrible wet stuff. So no decent fall on the cards and anything which does lie will be washed away by Thursday’s forecast rain anyway

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