SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: For November-December-January above-average temperatures are more probable than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for November-December-January will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 30% and 35% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). CONTEXT: Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Central and Eastern Pacific have now fallen close to La Niña thresholds. Long-range prediction systems indicate this cooling is very likely to continue in the coming weeks, leading to a full La Niña event over the next few months. La Niña slightly increases the chances of blocking patterns over the North Atlantic and Europe in late autumn and early winter, leading to increased chances of colder-than-average conditions. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), an oscillation of the equatorial winds in the stratosphere, is in an easterly phase. The QBO is linked to conditions over Western Europe during late autumn and early winter through an influence on the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at the surface. An easterly phase of the QBO tends to moderately increase the chances of a negative phase of the NAO, which in turn increases the chances of below-average temperatures. Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are generally above average, consistent with the current high levels of warmth globally. West of the UK, however, temperatures are slightly below average. Nevertheless, warmth beneath the ocean surface, which is expected to have an increasing influence on surface conditions as the period progresses, favours higher-than-normal temperatures for the time of year. For November-December-January as a whole, long-range forecast systems generally show an increased chance of westerly air flow over the UK, although some show more likelihood of high-pressure patterns over the North Atlantic implying a greater likelihood of northerly or north-westerly winds. Overall, the outlook shows increased chances of above-average temperatures in the 3-month period (see figure T2). Despite this, the risk of colder-than-normal conditions remains a significant possibility, with some of the drivers of UK winter weather, such as La Niña and the QBO, favouring weather patterns associated with colder-than-normal weather.

Thought it worth pasting the full METO contingency forecast for November to January.

They come down on the warmer than average side but with  a significant possibility of colder than normal.

Overall I would still go for an NAo+ winter.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

That full summary is certainly worth reading again and again - it's as close as the METO are likely to get to acknowledging the modern era.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

A year ago today.    Another fall a week later, but this was as good as it got all winter.   

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Like I said it matters not when you can still get winters like above. 😉

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Given the current model output and the METO  30 day having a blocked outlook blocked surprised there is not more activity on winter prospects.I notice however that the latest 30 day concludes with possible return of westerlies by the end of the period.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

That's the problem, lastNovember was full of early snow, frost and winter promise then followed by a drab winter even more boring than 1992.

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

If I was to issue a winter forecast now I would be going for a cold but mainly dry early start to December but becoming progressively milder as the month goes on with heights lowering around the pole. January continues mild and wet with a big Euro high and a strong PV over Greenland until around the last third of the month before things settle down somewhat but remain mildish with heights over France giving large parts of the country a fine back end to the month.

February starts fine, dry and mild but with heights transferring over to Scandinavia bringing colder weather to the south and east of the country whilst the north and west are more under the Atlantic’s influence so milder and wetter here. All in all a rather pish poor winter for cold weather IMO.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I'm sure your guess is as likely to be true as anyone elses......i'm hoping that whoever guesses it will snow and be cold is right but that feels like wishful thinking

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

If I was to issue a winter forecast now I would be going for a cold but mainly dry early start to December but becoming progressively milder as the month goes on with heights lowering around the pole. January continues mild and wet with a big Euro high and a strong PV over Greenland until around the last third of the month before things settle down somewhat but remain mildish with heights over France giving large parts of the country a fine back end to the month.

February starts fine, dry and mild but with heights transferring over to Scandinavia bringing colder weather to the south and east of the country whilst the north and west are more under the Atlantic’s influence so milder and wetter here. All in all a rather pish poor winter for cold weather IMO.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

This sounds more like a summary of the last few Winters SC. I sometimes can't tell if you are being jocular or not. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Its just a wild guess looking ahead using what the fairly useless long range models are hinting at coupled with past moderate Nina patterns and how warm the Atlantic is right now. 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Sounds like the usual fair so. Roll on the switch in the AMO index. Just another 5/10 years to wait. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Ok, so this is the way I see it at the moment:

ENSO - Borderline  -neutral/weak La Nina likely - slightly favours a cold Winter

eQBO - timing/amplitude should favour a colder Winter

Solar cycle position - favours a cold Winter

Atlantic SST Profile - favours a milder Winter

October synoptic anomalies - favour a cold Winter

So on paper it should be a cold Winter, but it would just be our bad luck if the Atlantic SST's trumped everything else wouldn't it!!

The really intriguing thing is that 1962 does seem to be the best analogue for 2017 in terms of having similar ENSO set up, similar eQBO profile, and around the same position in the Solar Cycle, plus October 1962's synoptic anomalies were similar to 2017.  

Furthermore, I've noticed that Novembers that have higher than normal pressure over Greenland especially in the second half of the month, are generally followed by cold Winters.  The model outlook certainly points towards a lengthy spell of Greenland blocking,  so I think another reason to be more optimistic.  

Also there's no reason to be downbeat about the UK missing out on significant cold weather this month.  The Novembers of 1984, 1995, 2009 and 2012 failed to bring in any notably cold weather, and instead produced mild cyclonic spells with southerly winds. All of the Winters that followed were cold and wintry.  

So at the moment, I would lean towards it being colder than average this Winter, but still a bit early to say for sure.  If we get a strong Greenland High for the rest of this month, then that increases the chances.

Originally Posted by: Andy J 

The way I see it is the same as the last 3 winters...a none event...we've had numerous perfect scenarios, when even the Met Office were forecasting harsh conditions, and yet they still haven't produced any proper winter weather for the majority of the UK, so I don't see how this winter will be any different for most of us...

Originally Posted by: phlippy67 

Ok, so this is the way I see it at the moment:

ENSO - Borderline  -neutral/weak La Nina likely - slightly favours a cold Winter

eQBO - timing/amplitude should favour a colder Winter

Solar cycle position - favours a cold Winter

Atlantic SST Profile - favours a milder Winter

October synoptic anomalies - favour a cold Winter

So on paper it should be a cold Winter, but it would just be our bad luck if the Atlantic SST's trumped everything else wouldn't it!!

The really intriguing thing is that 1962 does seem to be the best analogue for 2017 in terms of having similar ENSO set up, similar eQBO profile, and around the same position in the Solar Cycle, plus October 1962's synoptic anomalies were similar to 2017.  

Furthermore, I've noticed that Novembers that have higher than normal pressure over Greenland especially in the second half of the month, are generally followed by cold Winters.  The model outlook certainly points towards a lengthy spell of Greenland blocking,  so I think another reason to be more optimistic.  

Also there's no reason to be downbeat about the UK missing out on significant cold weather this month.  The Novembers of 1984, 1995, 2009 and 2012 failed to bring in any notably cold weather, and instead produced mild cyclonic spells with southerly winds. All of the Winters that followed were cold and wintry.  

So at the moment, I would lean towards it being colder than average this Winter, but still a bit early to say for sure.  If we get a strong Greenland High for the rest of this month, then that increases the chances.

Originally Posted by: Andy J 

The way I see it is the same as the last 3 winters...a none event...we've had numerous perfect scenarios, when even the Met Office were forecasting harsh conditions, and yet they still haven't produced any proper winter weather for the majority of the UK, so I don't see how this winter will be any different for most of us...

Originally Posted by: phlippy67 

The way I see it is the same as the last 3 winters...a none event...we've had numerous perfect scenarios, when even the Met Office were forecasting harsh conditions, and yet they still haven't produced any proper winter weather for the majority of the UK, so I don't see how this winter will be any different for most of us...

Originally Posted by: phlippy67 

2012 cold and wintery winter.. really?? 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I mean the Winter following the November of 2012 - Winter 2012/13.   It was cold and wintry for most places.

Originally Posted by: Andy J