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Gavin D
02 December 2023 11:41:29
06z GFS setting up Uncle Barty around mid month
doctormog
02 December 2023 11:49:31

06z GFS setting up Uncle Barty around mid month

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



”Uncle Barty”? Looking at the 06z GEFS at the end of the 06z set and the op run is only 8 to 10°C above the mean so nailed on I would guess.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Saint Snow
02 December 2023 11:53:04

GEFS 06Z looks fairly decisive as far as the south is concerned. The question now is surely turning to whether the late autumn kerfuffle is over and BAU is resuming for the winter. Or not? It's worth remembering that most of the colder winter in the late 70s and 80s didn't get going until after Christmas. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



BAU?

Bloody Annoyingly Useless?

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
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doctormog
02 December 2023 12:00:33
Either Business As Usual or Boring And Uninspiring?
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
02 December 2023 12:44:53

6Z GFS control run looks to be taking a rather different route from the operational, with significant trough disruption at T168.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Well the control didn’t make it either. 

Plenty of colder runs on the 6Z GEFS though. The op run was very much at the top of the pack. 

My pocket will be happy to see a milder interlude. I do like frosty foggy weather but my heat pump is less keen. Temperatures around zero and fog are about as bad as you can get for a heat pump as the unit ices up and has to waste heat defrosting. 

Still a heck of a lot cheaper than my old storage heaters though!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
02 December 2023 12:52:12
As I say, until the ensembles are all on the same page consider nothing resolved. Already the OPs are going for something different compared to a few days ago (progressive yes, but with a scandi high building behind quite rapidly)
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
02 December 2023 13:14:14

06z GFS setting up Uncle Barty around mid month

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



I am amused to see the Bartlett High being quoted when the set-up is nothing like it.

That is not a Bartlett High, it’s a Euro High: a Bartlett High describes a pattern where successive high pressure cells move west to east to our south.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
02 December 2023 13:20:28

Well the control didn’t make it either. 

Plenty of colder runs on the 6Z GEFS though. The op run was very much at the top of the pack. 

My pocket will be happy to see a milder interlude. I do like frosty foggy weather but my heat pump is less keen. Temperatures around zero and fog are about as bad as you can get for a heat pump as the unit ices up and has to waste heat defrosting. 

Still a heck of a lot cheaper than my old storage heaters though!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



At both the 850hPa level for London the Op was pretty much a complete outlier for the last 4 days of the run, completely without support from the ensemble suite, except on Day 16 when 2 members join it. On the height of the freezing level it was a complete outlier, about 400m above anything in the ensemble suite. 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


tallyho_83
02 December 2023 15:49:46
No one has mentioned about the potential warming in statrosphere over Siberia and pushing into the N Pole end of the run which has been consistent for several days now - of course not an SSW/ split PV or Reversal but it's very early to see any kinds of warming in N. Hemisphere so one to keep an eye on I guess?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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