theweatheroutlook

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Rob K
18 November 2024 07:21:45
iPhone app (yes I know 🤡) has a max of 3C with snow on Thursday rising to 16C by Saturday. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
18 November 2024 07:30:23
Well the ECM has snow for me Tuesday afternoon.  About 4cm. We'll see other output is further north.  Anywhere from southern Scotland to the Home Counties in with a chance tomorrow. Nowcast job.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tim A
18 November 2024 07:39:53
For what's it's worth (not very much in my opinion), when you get to this range, just a reminder that ICON 6Z is already out...
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/46/5376/icond2_46_23_0vzz1.png 



Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Joe Bloggs
18 November 2024 08:37:17
High res charts showing the white hole of doom clear as a bell this morning! Here’s the 00z WRF. 
I expect light precipitation or could even stay dry. Other parts of northern England looking good. 
UserPostedImage

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
18 November 2024 08:43:50

High res charts showing the white hole of doom clear as a bell this morning! Here’s the 00z WRF. 
I expect light precipitation or could even stay dry. Other parts of northern England looking good. 
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


It does generally look pretty marginal,  wouldn't surprise me if all the models are over doing the snow amounts.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
18 November 2024 08:55:46

It does generally look pretty marginal,  wouldn't surprise me if all the models are over doing the snow amounts.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Morning mate! 
To be fair, it’s quite a tough call. 
If you compare forecast dewpoints with where the precipitation is forecast to hit, on the GFS run for example - It looks fairly decent for some. Dare I say that Saint’s patch looks quite promising?
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_24_37.png

 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_24_43.png 

Greater Manchester always fares badly in these situations, I’m kind of over it now. Sheffield looks like it could get a direct hit. Or the whole lot could bugger off South and hit the Midlands, Not long until we can check the radar. 
Could be some very reliable Cheshire Gap showers later this week too, with winds backing more to the WNW. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+2
ballamar
18 November 2024 09:19:17
At least living in the SE there is no hope or expectation. Will be enjoyable to hear the excitement/disappointment from elsewhere! Good luck
warrenb
18 November 2024 09:54:02

At least living in the SE there is no hope or expectation. Will be enjoyable to hear the excitement/disappointment from elsewhere! Good luck

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Indeed, down here in Kent winter is a spectator sport these days.
Tonbridge 45m 
+2
Taylor1740
18 November 2024 10:27:10
Met Office still only expecting the snow to effect higher ground over 200m, and only a very small chance of snow settling to lower levels. We shall see then however I think the vast majority of us can expect a lot of rain based on the Met Office forecast.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
+1
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 November 2024 11:28:14
Its further north on the radar right?
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
scillydave
18 November 2024 11:39:29

Its further north on the radar right?

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Id actually thought the opposite. It's pushed into Wales faster than modelled by the Met Office and Northern Ireland looks drier ATM.
 Another couple of hours and we should have a clearer picture I think. Definitely a now cast for north Midlands northwards.
It'll be interesting to see what it does as it pulls away. Arome, Arpege and ECM have a good bit of snow through South Wales / cotswolds etc tomorrow morning whereas other models have nothing. 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
doctormog
18 November 2024 11:51:20
I see the updated Met Office weather warnings now include this area (from.this afternoon until Wednesday).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Tim A
18 November 2024 11:52:19
Tense times.  Still no idea what will happen but UKV 9Z doesn't take it as far North in an organised way, better for Midlands I would say. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 November 2024 12:08:30
Definitely looks further north and east to me. Models have the precip nearly at the welsh, english border which was not expected to happen for another 2-3 hours.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 November 2024 12:24:38
Precip grazing the south coast of the Isle of man. Most models take until around 7pm for that to happen.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Tim A
18 November 2024 12:40:41
Is it real though, could be false echos?
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
westv
18 November 2024 12:44:22

I see the updated Met Office weather warnings now include this area (from.this afternoon until Wednesday).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


No weather warning for Hull now - I'm sure there was one yesterday although it was all "slight risk"
At least it will be mild!
Brian Gaze
18 November 2024 12:57:13
Arome 06Z brings the snow risk to the south of London tomorrow. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 November 2024 12:58:26
So based on the MSLP I don't think the LP is stronger or further north than anticipated, but the front itself is further NE and maybe a bit more active. I can't say what impact this will have this evening when snow is important.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 November 2024 13:00:58

Arome 06Z brings the snow risk to the south of London tomorrow. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The air will be cold enough, models don't disagree on that. What is odd is the fact this precip doesn't even exist on some of the other models. This system's path and development seems still very uncertain.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
+1
Brian Gaze
18 November 2024 13:06:40

The air will be cold enough, models don't disagree on that. What is odd is the fact this precip doesn't even exist on some of the other models. This system's path and development seems still very uncertain.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



The Meteo France models are showing 2 distinct disturbances. It is the second which brings the snow to the south I think. Here's Arpege 06Z.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Retron
18 November 2024 13:07:13

Arome 06Z brings the snow risk to the south of London tomorrow. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


MC suggests it turns increasingly to soft hail rather than snow. I guess that's due to the interaction with layers of warmer air as it moves SE'wards, meaning there's a layer of milder air within which melts the snow, only for the droplets to become supercooled.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/96/11780/aromehd_1_30_0sbx8.png 

UserPostedImage

(White hatching = snow, orange shading = soft hail / grapuel).
Leysdown, north Kent
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 November 2024 13:20:44

The Meteo France models are showing 2 distinct disturbances. It is the second which brings the snow to the south I think. Here's Arpege 06Z.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Itl be a bent back occluded front from the LP, so one difference between France and the other models is that the occluded front develops while the LP is still close to the UK rather than well to its east.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 November 2024 13:24:53
So it sems clear that the models have broadly got the position, track and intensity of the LP correct so far; but they have got the frontal positions wrong and disagree on the development (or even whether an occluded front will form at all).
If the fronts are more active then expected we can't rule out secondary lows either.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
18 November 2024 13:25:39

MC suggests it turns increasingly to soft hail rather than snow. I guess that's due to the interaction with layers of warmer air as it moves SE'wards, meaning there's a layer of milder air within which melts the snow, only for the droplets to become supercooled.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/96/11780/aromehd_1_30_0sbx8.png 

UserPostedImage

(White hatching = snow, orange shading = soft hail / grapuel).

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Thanks. I've just seen that variable in the grib. It's labelled Graupel (Snow Pellets) which fits in with what that chart shows.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1

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