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nsrobins
  • nsrobins
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 February 2018 06:52:54

If Mods allow, I think these work quite well for people who don’t want to sift through the flotsam and toy drifts in the MO thread. It would be good therefore to try to keep this one fairly tightly confined to mesoscale discussion and short/mid term potential.


And on that note, I see dps falling now with a decent packet of showers approaching the SE. Also watch for a potential streamer early Mon then we have the occluding trough Tues that GFS is now keen to disrupt further west.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Retron
04 February 2018 07:02:12
I'd imagine this will be quite busy over the coming week!

Down here there have been several rain showers already today, with the Thames Estuary currently showing more showers (albeit none on the right angle to hit here). The last shower that came through had soft hail (graupel), typical of "lake effect" convection.

The downside is that 850s are going to at best be marginal for low-level snow here; gone are the -10s and instead it looks like -7 or -8 is more likely.

It also looks like a chunk of colder air has now arrived. Despite the clouds, the temperature's fallen by a degree in the last 15 minutes (now 1.9C) and the dewpoint is falling too (down to 1.0C). I would expect sleet in the next shower if things stay the same.

The models show a pocket of less-cold upper air crossing the far SE this afternoon and this could well tip things back towards rain.
Leysdown, north Kent
Gary L
04 February 2018 07:12:46

After. a quick look through the models this morning the next feature is the disrupting front coming from the West on Tuesday morning - it looks like giving decent snowfall across Scotland and far N England possibly but very quickly dies a death by the afternoon on Tuesday as it moves East. The GFS 00z is fairly representative of the cross model forecast from what I've seen.


09z -


09z GFS


15z -


00z GFS 15z


After this a similar event looks possible on Thursday but it's a bit far out at this point! The event just gone fizzled out and left a good 2 inches or so around 450 m in Saddleworth when I went for a drive yesterday. Nothing at 200m.


PS - not sure what happened to the rendering of the charts, whatever I change it stays the same!


 

nsrobins
  • nsrobins
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
04 February 2018 07:29:48
Darren is correct in that this afternoon into evening parameters nudge the wrong side of marginal for the SE - it’s early hours into tomorrow morning that they drop again and 3cm+ is possible even to low levels depending on the detail of the convergence line. We’ve seen these things behave quite differently (each way) compared to what’s modelled even at 6hrs lead time.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whether Idle
04 February 2018 07:33:38

Darren is correct in that this afternoon into evening parameters nudge the wrong side of marginal for the SE - it’s early hours into tomorrow morning that they drop again and 3cm+ is possible even to low levels depending on the detail of the convergence line. We’ve seen these things behave quite differently (each way) compared to what’s modelled even at 6hrs lead time.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Started snowing here 5 minutes ago, 


the models suggest (Ive looked at a few) that the upper air warms up 3pm-9pm so more likely rain but then back to snow 10pm -10am tomorrow.  Que sera.  


Edit - 0735 - shower stopped, bit of slush, now melted 2.1, 0.2


edit 3 - some of the upper air forecasts are for this now to be the best chance with -8 overhead, warming to -5 this evening and overnight, so we shall see but my expectations are minimal unless the uppers stay at -8 or below.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
04 February 2018 08:05:23
It’s not cold enough here today for any of the showers to be wintry and the best chance in the near future has been and will be Monday night/Tuesday morning’s occlusion. Today the air is simply too warm off a “warm” long sea track. Incidentallly why I said “warm”, is because SSTs in the region appear a little below average.

As ever this is not really a problem in the SE and can actually be helpful for convective purposes.

On a different note yesterday’s stalling front gave the ski centres (more especially Cairngorm) a real dumping of up to about a foot of snow.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Sevendust
04 February 2018 08:15:45

A Thames streamer can deliver here so I'm watching for the wind trajectory later today. Showers tend to funnel along the North Downs and therefore affect Alton so we'll see

ballamar
04 February 2018 08:31:32
I think this could turn out a disruptive event for some this evening/tonight

Usual suspects but looks like a growing threat
Deep Powder
04 February 2018 08:50:31


A Thames streamer can deliver here so I'm watching for the wind trajectory later today. Showers tend to funnel along the North Downs and therefore affect Alton so we'll see


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Yes and notoriously difficult to forecast as this video shows: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=N79b5vHm9QM


One of my all time favourites Rob Mcelwee forecasting a dusting in the SE on the 8am weather report 30th November 2010. As it turned out, a streamer set up and we had a foot of snow over the Downs by the end of the day (heavy snow all day!). 


Not saying that's what will happen this time, appreciate setup is different, just highlighting the difficulty in forecasting these events!


😎


edit - great delivery by Rob, last of a great breed?

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Whether Idle
04 February 2018 09:39:42

I think this could turn out a disruptive event for some this evening/tonight

Usual suspects but looks like a growing threat

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Cant quite see much coming out of this set up for very many of the "usual suspects" whoever they are?


1.  Its not cold enough


2. The convection is shallow


3. The cold pool is tethered with pockets of warmer air embedded at no notice


4. It does not last long enough


5. Most precipitation is forecast over the Channel, which is a key point!


6. The MO SWW (assuming they don't pull it later this morning) hardly makes me quake with the prospect of up to 3cms of snow locally above 100m.


In other words, I'm expecting nada, I don't expect to be pleasantly surprised.  Disruptive?  Doesnt seem at all likely.  I think we can cope with an inch of snow on the tops of the Downs.  If you can see this panning out differently given the data available I will listen.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
04 February 2018 09:46:40
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018020406/21-779UK.GIF?04-6 

I think the early hours and throughout tomorrow morning has great potential for Kent especially.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Joe Bloggs
04 February 2018 09:55:19

06z is still showing a little bit more potency to Tuesday’s front. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_54_43.png


After all the let downs of this winter so far I’d be delighted with a cm or so. I’m still not convinced the front will make it this far SE. At least if it does, it should be non marginal, SNOW. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Whether Idle
04 February 2018 10:09:30
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018020406/21-779UK.GIF?04-6 

I think the early hours and throughout tomorrow morning has great potential for Kent especially.


Thanks Michael, yes, Ive had a look, but it does not alter my perception.  Justin up on the Downs and places like Capel le Ferne might get up to 3 cms at very best  but down in the towns its going to be a non event I think.  Still, something can be seen as better than nothing. 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Retron
04 February 2018 10:18:26


Thanks Michael, yes, Ive had a look, but it does not alter my perception.  Justin up on the Downs and places like Capel le Ferne might get up to 3 cms at very best  but down in the towns its going to be a non event I think.  Still, something can be seen as better than nothing. 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Well, if the MetO raw output is to be believed it'll rain all night and into tomorrow morning here - lovely. It had been showing snow symbols (and fewer of them) yesterday, so the switch implies UKV is seeing warmer upper temperatures than were forecast until recently.


Sittingbourne, a few miles inland, now has sleet and rain symbols. It's not until you get as far as Maidstone (15 miles inland) that the snow symbols start to appear, but even then there are sleet symbols too.


In fact, you have to go all the way to Sevenoaks before you get nothing but snow!


Hopefully that'll change nearer the time, as otherwise there'll be a lot of pee'd off snow fans in Kent at least...

Leysdown, north Kent
Whether Idle
04 February 2018 10:26:56


 


Well, if the MetO raw output is to be believed it'll rain all night and into tomorrow morning here - lovely. It had been showing snow symbols (and fewer of them) yesterday, so the switch implies UKV is seeing warmer upper temperatures than were forecast until recently.


Sittingbourne, a few miles inland, now has sleet and rain symbols. It's not until you get as far as Maidstone (15 miles inland) that the snow symbols start to appear, but even then there are sleet symbols too.


In fact, you have to go all the way to Sevenoaks before you get nothing but snow!


Hopefully that'll change nearer the time, as otherwise there'll be a lot of pee'd off snow fans in Kent at least...


Originally Posted by: Retron 


I think its just not cold enough Darren, I will be very surprised if there is snow outside here tomorrow, very surprised.  Your post above seems to me to be more realistic.  Time to readjust your expectations now I think. 


It isn't going to happen this time.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
The Beast from the East
04 February 2018 11:33:09


 


Yes and notoriously difficult to forecast as this video shows: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=N79b5vHm9QM


One of my all time favourites Rob Mcelwee forecasting a dusting in the SE on the 8am weather report 30th November 2010. As it turned out, a streamer set up and we had a foot of snow over the Downs by the end of the day (heavy snow all day!). 


Not saying that's what will happen this time, appreciate setup is different, just highlighting the difficulty in forecasting these events!


😎


edit - great delivery by Rob, last of a great breed?


Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 


that was incredible, and the heaviest snow we've since Jan 1987. Its was also localised with se London copping it but very little the further north you went


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gusty
04 February 2018 12:00:28


 Cant quite see much coming out of this set up for very many of the "usual suspects" whoever they are?


1.  Its not cold enough


2. The convection is shallow


3. The cold pool is tethered with pockets of warmer air embedded at no notice


4. It does not last long enough


5. Most precipitation is forecast over the Channel, which is a key point!


6. The MO SWW (assuming they don't pull it later this morning) hardly makes me quake with the prospect of up to 3cms of snow locally above 100m.


In other words, I'm expecting nada, I don't expect to be pleasantly surprised.  Disruptive?  Doesnt seem at all likely.  I think we can cope with an inch of snow on the tops of the Downs.  If you can see this panning out differently given the data available I will listen.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Agree. Altitude below 50 metres is likely to see very little now if any. Uppers have edged up to -8c, crucially making things extremely marginal. Key to getting low level now is precipitation intensity aligned with diurnal cooling.


A few cm's on the Downs will look nice. This is the way things are these days. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Jonesy
04 February 2018 12:14:00


 


Agree. Altitude below 50 metres is likely to see very little now if any. Uppers have edged up to -8c, crucially making things extremely marginal. Key to getting low level now is precipitation intensity aligned with diurnal cooling.


A few cm's on the Downs will look nice. This is the way things are these days. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Looking across the Estuary it has a look and feel about it but after reading that Steve I'm going to put the sledge away , was nippy out on the course this morning (Upchurch)

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Retron
04 February 2018 12:20:22
No point looking for snow down here for the next few hours, anyway....

Just had a shower pass through (yellow on the radar, so quite heavy) and it was nothing but rain. Not even a hint of sleetiness!

The temperature was 5.3C (dew 3.2) and it's now fallen to 4.6C (dew 3.6C).

Quite disappointing given the uppers, but to be expected I guess.
Leysdown, north Kent
idj20
04 February 2018 12:20:32


 


Looking across the Estuary it has a look and feel about it but after reading that Steve I'm going to put the sledge away , was nippy out on the course this morning (Upchurch)


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 



Don't think there'll be that much in the way of settling snow here on the coastal edge, but I'll be heading to Deal tomorrow morning for dental treatment thus taking me over high ground in doing so. That should make the whole ordeal that little less painful.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Jonesy
04 February 2018 12:23:58




Don't think there'll be that much in the way of settling snow here on the coastal edge, but I'll be heading to Deal tomorrow morning for dental treatment thus taking me over high ground in doing so. That should make the whole ordeal that little less painful.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Don't eat yellow snow Ian 


I feel it's going to be a long night of radar watching, waiting for a streamer 

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Solar Cycles
04 February 2018 12:28:24
I think many will be disappointed over the coming week any frontal activity looks decidedly patchy in nature at best. I think Tuesdays feature gives us the best chance of snow but Thursdays feature looks a wintry mix.
Phil G
04 February 2018 12:38:13
It's a tale of two halfs where you live. Away from the SE, looking out west and how much is left on the front as it comes through. In the SE all eyes out to an easterly type direction where in the past on rare occasions we have done very well.
Before anything really gets going, expectations have gone from promising to negligible from the latest runs. Personally, if there is a bit of white and a landscape change out there for a bit will make me feel more comfortable. Still traumatised during that period of nothing in the nineties to noughties.
I like the seasons and just happy nowadays to feel seasonal in Winter when it should be on paper.
Gusty
04 February 2018 12:40:58


 Looking across the Estuary it has a look and feel about it but after reading that Steve I'm going to put the sledge away , was nippy out on the course this morning (Upchurch)


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


The sledge is out Jonesy . I have a hunch we are in for a last minute upgrade. The southern North Sea looks very blobby. Intensity, uppers a little cooler and night time could all conspire to deliver. IMO 1-3cm low ground, 5-8cm high ground is not out of the question.


We have been here before in the 90's. Even Feb 2010 (28cm IMBY) only had a forecast of 2-5cm in the hours preceding the event.


.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Retron
04 February 2018 12:56:20


We have been here before in the 90's. Even Feb 2010 (28cm IMBY) only had a forecast of 2-5cm in the hours preceding the event.


.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Well, one thing's for sure - I won't get less here than I had in Feb 2010!


(Yup, zilch here.)

Leysdown, north Kent
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