14 day UK weather forecast

Hot start then mixed weather returns 

Issued Sunday 23rd June 2024


14 day video

Issued 25th June 2024

The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.

14 day video weather forecast

14 day discussion

The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.

Hot spell

Week 1: 24/06 to 30/06

Monday, Tuesday: Much of the UK has fine conditions and it will be very warm or hot. In Scotland and perhaps other parts of the north west there is a risk of some showery rain.

Wednesday, Thursday: Fine and very warm or hot in central and eastern areas. In the west there should be sunny periods to begin with, but the risk of rain increases as cooler conditions begin to return. Showers could also break out in central and northern Britain.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday: A transition to changeable weather is expected in all areas. Therefore, showers or longer spells of rain are possible in all of the UK. Temperatures dip back towards the average.

Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.

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Changeable and cooler

Week 2: 31/06 to 06/07

All regions could have showers or longer spells of rain at times during the week. In the south east and East Anglia there is a risk of thundery conditions developing on occasion. Despite that, there should be a reasonable amount of dry and bright periods too, with the the best of them in the south and east of the UK. Temperatures close to or slightly above the seasonal average.

Forecast confidence is low.

Expected developments

Week 1

High pressure will dominate the weather early in the week. It leads to very warm or hot conditions, but later on an area of low pressure and its associated frontal systems push eastwards across the UK.

The chart below is from the UK Met Office Global model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 12:00, Thursday 27th June.

UKM Global pressure and precipitation forecast chart

Week 2

A more mixed pattern is forecast for much of the week. High pressure centred to the south is likely to have influence, but so will areas of low pressure. They bring the potential for wetter spells and it may become thundery at times. As usual at this range, forecast details are uncertain. Therefore, it is possible that high pressure will be more dominant than currently envisaged. 

The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Wednesday 3rd July. 

GEFS mean surface level pressure forecast chart

 

Key weather developments

Very warm or hot weather develops at the start of the forecast period. Temperatures could pip 30C for the first time this year in the UK.

The UKV chart below shows forecast rain at 15:00 on Wednesday 26th June.

UKV forecast chart

Hourly weather

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16 day weather

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Computer models

For a huge range of data see the Model inventory which provides output from the Arpege, Arome, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, Icon, ECM, ECM ENS, UKV, UM and Fax models.

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COMPUTER MODELS

INFO

Short range
Short to medium range
Medium to long range
Deterministic
Ensemble

See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data