Issued Thursday 21st November 2024
Issued 19th November 2024
The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.
The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.
Friday: Very cold with a widespread frost early in the day. Wintry showers continue in coastal counties and a few could push into central counties for a time. Later on cloud starts to build from the southwest.
Saturday: Wet weather quickly pushes northeastwards. In northern England and Scotland the rain will be preceded by a period of snow which is expected to give significant accumulations, particularly over high ground. However, it will be turning much milder, with temperatures possibly reaching 16C in the south. Very windy, especially in coastal counties where severe gales are possible.
Sunday: Northern and western areas have a blustery day with sunny spells and showers. In central England and perhaps Wales more persistent and at times heavy outbreaks of rain are a risk throughout the day. Mild in the north and very mild in the south.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Changeable to begin with. All regions have showers or longer spells of rain and at times it could be windy. Temperatures fluctuate, but on the whole they are expected to be close to the norm. Over high ground in the north it could be cold enough for sleet or snow at times. Towards the end of the period it may turn drier and more settled from the west.
Forecast confidence is high.
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Mixed. Early on it should be mostly dry in the south and east of Britain. In the north and west more changeable weather is expected. There is a lot of uncertainty about how things will develop, but there should be a reasonable amount of dry weather, particularly in the south. There are some indications of it becoming cold, but the most likely outcome at the time of issue is for temperatures to often be close to the average. However, there is a risk of patchy frost and fog. If fog should linger well into the days, temperatures would be suppressed.
Forecast confidence is very low.
A cold air mass over the UK is quickly displaced as frontal systems associated with a deep area of low pressure called Storm Bert push northeastwards. It will become unseasonably mild for a time. Another area of low pressure is then likely to move in from the west, but once it clears a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build.
The chart below is from the GFS model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 22:00, Sunday 24th November.
The most likely scenario is for high pressure to be centred over continental Europe, with its influence extending to the UK at times, especially the south and east. However, there are tentative signs of it building further north and some computer model runs have positioned high pressure close to Iceland. Were that to happen, Atlantic systems could be steered further south and in the UK the risk of rain, sleet and snow would increase.
The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Sunday 1st December.
After a cold and wintry start, Storm Bert brings a big change. Much milder air pushes northeastweards across the UK, along with heavy outbreaks of rain and strong winds. In the north a period of snow is expected which could be disruptive. Later on signals become very mixed.
The GFS chart below shows forecast wind gusts at 11:00 on Saturday 23rd November.
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