30 to 150 day weather

New ultra long range outlooks

Forecasting the weather more than a few days ahead in the United Kingdom is very difficult and the skill level in long range forecasts is generally very low. In other words it is considered impossible to accurately forecast the weather on specific days at longer ranges and there's even doubt about how well the current technology helps identify longer range trends. Nonetheless there are computer models which look a long way into the future to try and provide guidance on what may be incoming!

The Climate Forecast System v2 (CFSv2) is one of these and we're now able to bring 30 to 150 day forecasts based on the data it produces. The forecasts update every day and it is important to realise these should not be relied on or used as a planning tool. However, they may be of value in identifying possible trends, for example, are the summer months showing long settled spells or the winter months cold ones. Is the forecast consistent from day to day or is it changing dramtically? If the former then confidence could be higher. 

The 30 to 150 day forecast page is great fun to view but remember that the seasonal discussion forecasts on the site could be pointing to a different outlook. This is because they consider a wide range of factors and are only updated at the start of each new season.   Enjoy the new feature! Here's the direct link. 

30 to 150 day forecasts

Issed 23/08/2013 

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