Winter 2022-23 colder than average?

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[Published 06:15 02/12/2022]

Windblown snow on birches, Boat of Garten, 14 Jan  15. Posted by slowoldgit

The TWO winter forecast has been issued and the headline is for a slightly colder than average season. In the short term there will be a chilly feel to things as an easterly wind strengthens, but much of the UK will be dry. Uncertainty increases next week, but many computer models are suggesting that cold air will sweep down from the north or northeast and perhaps lead to an increasing risk of snow.


The UK winter 2022-23 weather forecast covering December, January and February has been issued. A slightly colder and drier than average winter is forecast, but other scenarios leading to a significantly colder or milder outcome are possible.   

Friday starts wet in parts of north eastern Britain. Elsewhere it is mainly dry, but there is quite a lot of fog around locally a touch of frost.

Through the day outbreaks of rain push westwards across Scotland but they become increasingly light and patchy. There will also be showers in parts of eastern England with some heavier ones in East Anglia. Elsewhere it remains dry and a strengthening wind clears the fog.

Temperatures range from 5C (41F) to 8C (46F). See the rain radar for the latest view.

UKV 1
UK Met Office UKV, rain, 15:00 Friday, 2nd December

Tonight showers become more widespread in eastern England. There could also be also be some showery bursts of rain in the far north later on. Rather cold with frost most likely in the north and west.

Tomorrow outbreaks of rain and hill snow extend across northern and western Scotland. There is a chance of them pushing into Northern Ireland too. Much of the rest of the UK has a good deal of dry weather, although in central regions showers are possible. Cloud amounts vary. Rather cold.

UKV 2
UK Met Office UKV, temperatures, 15:00 Saturday, 3rd December

Cold outlook favoured

Sunday is looking cold. In central and northern eastern parts of the UK there will be showers and over the hills they increasingly fall as sleet or snow. The south should be dry and bright intervals are likely. A keen easterly wind exacerbates the chill.

During Monday there could be some patchy outbreaks of rain in southern and central Britain. The north has sunny spells, but showery rain or snow is possible in Scotland. Rather cold.

Forecast details for the rest of the week remain uncertain. However, most computer models are suggesting it will become even colder and the risk of snow could start to increase in all of the UK.

GFS chart 1
GFS, surface pressure and precipitation, 15:00 Tuesday, 6th December

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Windblown snow on birches, Boat of Garten, 14 Jan 15. Posted by slowoldgit View full size.

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