Autumn 2024 weather

In this first look at the prospects for autumn 2024 a range of factors are considered. These include: recent temperature trends, seasonal models and background signals.

Temperatures trends in 2024 so far

The Central England Temperature (CET) has mostly been above average so far this year. However, June and July were very close to the 1961-90 norms. August has seen warmer than average conditions.

Autumn 2023 warmer and wetter than average

Autumn 2023 was not quite as warm or wet as autumn 2022, but it was wetter and warmer than the 30 year norm. September saw the UK's highest temperature of the year, with 33.5C recorded at Faversham, Kent on the 10th. In contrast, October was often unsettled and finished as the 6th wettest since 1836. November began very wet, but the second half of the month was more mixed.

The UK mean temperature for autumn 2023 was 10.8C which is 1.0C above the 1991 - 2020 average.  

The monthly temperature anomalies were:

September: 2.2C
October: 1.0C
November: -0.1C

The UK rainfall total relative to the 1991- 2020 average was 122%. The monthly statistics were:

September: 131%
October: 140%
November: 96%

Sunshine totals were 105% of the 1991-2020 average. The monthly statistics were:

September: 112%
October: 92%
November: 112%

In recent years there has been a tendency for months to be above rather than below CET and that trend has continued through 2024 so far. That said, June and July were close to the 1961-90 averages and below the 1991-2020 ones.

Autumn seasonal model overview

The table below summarises output from seasonal forecast models for September, October and November 2024. It  represents the data available at time of publication and subsequent updates may favour a different outcome. 

C3S multi system incorporates data from a range of sources including: ECMWF, UK Met Office, Meteo France, CMCC, DWD, JMA and NCEP.

As is usually the case with the seasonal models there is a strong signal for above average temperatures. The precipitation signal is often weaker and that is the case here with no strong indication.

NOTE: Since the first update in July changes have been minor. In particular, the JMA model is now showing a stronger signal for above average temperatures. The outlook for precipitation remains very uncertain.

Background signals

In addition to the seasonal models a number of key points are worth mentioning:

1) There is a 66% chance of a switch from ENSO-neutral to La Nina conditions during the autumn period. The chance of it persisting through until the end of January is 74%

That could suggest an increased chance of cold snaps in the late autumn.

2) A very active hurricane season is forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center. This could increase the chance of high pressure blocking over continental Europe.

NOTE: Approximately two thirds of Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between 20th August and 10th October.

3) Current high levels of global warmth.

4) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) continue to be well above the normal in most of the North Atlantic. However, they are now close to the average to the west of the UK and around Iceland.

5) Some computer models are forecasting a weaker than average polar vortex developing during the second half of the meteorological autumn. This would increase the chance of cold spells.

6) Warmer than average seasons have been common in the UK during recent years. That said, June and July have both been close to or slightly below the 30 year average.

The above pointers are mixed and possibly offer less support for a warmer than average autumn than has been the case in most recent years. 

Chilly weather more likely than recent years

At this stage aggregate temperatures for the meteorological autumn (September, October and November) are considered more likely to be above average than below. With that said, compared to recent years the chance of cooler conditions over the season are considered to be higher. 

On balance, rain amounts are expected to be close to average.

NOTE: Since the July update there haven't been significant changes to the outlook.

There autumn forecast is released at the end of August.

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