Warm weather on the way?

Despite the higher temperatures the weather will be turning more unsettled. A low pressure system and its associated weather fronts will be moving in from the Atlantic on Wednesday. If the cloud and rain arrive earlier than predicted by most computer models, the maximum temperatures will be lower. 

The best chance of reaching 21°C or even 22°C on Wednesday is in the southeast and East Anglia, where dry and sunny conditions are most likely to persist.

The ECM chart above shows average temperatures between 12.00PM and 3.00PM on Wednesday. Based on this, maximum temperatures could reach 22°C, with even 23°C not entirely out of the question. This aligns with the upper end of the forecast range.

However, temperatures could be significantly lower. Recent Meteo France Arpege model runs suggest that cloud and rain might arrive in eastern England sooner, leading to maximum values being closer to 17°C or 18°C.

October temperature records

The expected temperatures are far from record-breaking. The highest October temperature in the UK is 29.9°C, recorded on October 1, 2011. The date record for October 15th is 23.6°C, set in 1977. It's unlikely to be broken this year.

Will the warmth continue?

Despite cooler air moving in from the west, temperatures are forecast to remain above average for much of the next two weeks. When looking more than a few days ahead forecast confidence starts to fall. Nonetheless, ensemble computer models are suggesting that above average temperatures remain a lot more likely than below average ones until around 25th October. At that point a very wide spread of possible scenarios is offered, with both above and below average outcomes being similarly likely.

Unfortunately, the relatively high temperatures are likely to be accompanied by mixed weather, with rain and possibly strong winds affecting all regions at times.

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