Brian Gaze's blog

Snow in the south east

2006-10-03T19:12:00Z

At this time of year people start asking whether it will snow this winter! Well even in southern parts it has snowed and settled during most recent winters, although there are some significant local differences. The conditions for snow are often marginal in the UK, and especially so in southern regions. Therefore, it helps to live in one of the hillier parts. London itself often misses out on snow, but the surrounding areas do quite frequently see a covering. In the Chiltern region just 25 miles north west of London there has been some decent snow during recent winters. Here's a few photos taken in and around Berkhamsted, Hertfordshire.

Click here to see the full gallery of snow pictures.

About long range forecasts on this site

2006-08-23T16:30:00Z

A common question visitors to our site ask is 'Does TheWeatherOutlook change its long range forecasts if conditions are not developing as expected?' The simple answer is 'no'. Each week our 14 day discussion forecast is updated twice, but our 45 day and seasonal forecasts are only updated at the beginning of each month, and at the turn of the current season.

My opinion is this is a better approach than updating a long range forecast every week to fit the current pattern development and the output from computer based medium range forecasting models. Using the latter approach could well lead to wild fluctuations in the forecast from week to week. How is that then judged? Of course it would give the benefit of being able to selectively claim that the seasonal forecasts were 100% spot on! Because the chances are that if they were updated every week, one of the updated would be pretty much spot on.

Autumn on the way!

2006-08-19T06:34:00Z

A lot of emails arrive asking why TWO long range forecasts (lrfs) forecasts cover the following periods (instead of following the equinoxes)...

Winter - December to Feb (Dec 21st to Mar 20th)
Spring - March to May (Mar 21st to Jun 20th)
Summer - June to August (Jun 21st to Sep 20th)
Autumn - September to November (Sep 21st to Dec 20th)

...the reason is because these are the definitions used by the UK Met Office.

So that means the Autumn forecast will be online shortly! This year has brought some cooler than average months, but also July which was the hottest month ever recorded in the UK. One thing which has been notable is the lack of the moderating influence from the Atlantic influence in our weather, and if this continues during the next 6 months there could well be further spells of unusually warm, or perhaps unusually cold weather.