Summer: Warmer and slightly drier than average Forecast Issued 01/06/2026 Forecast overview The forecast headline is for rain amounts to be close to average across the UK as a whole, although with a slight bias towards it being drier rather than wetter than normal. Warmer than average conditions are favoured. Temperature Above average. Precipitation 85% to 105% of the average. June Temperature: Above average Precipitation: Close to average First half Unsettled weather is expected across all areas during the first week, bringing an ongoing risk of showers or longer outbreaks of rain along with rather strong winds. The wettest conditions are expected in the north and west, with the driest in the south and east. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal norm, perhaps a little below it in the north west and a little above it in the south east. During the second week the likelihood of warmer and drier periods increases, particularly in the south where there is the potential for it to become very warm on some days. Second half Fairly mixed weather is forecast over the period as a whole. Initially the driest and warmest conditions are likely to be focused in the south, but later on it could become more unsettled there. In the north the opposite may occur, with settled spells becoming increasingly likely. July Temperature: Slightly above average (above in the south east) Precipitation: Slightly above average First half Changeable with the potential for heavy and thundery rain. However, dry and very warm or even hot spells are possible. Temperatures will be above the seasonal average overall, but significant regional variations are forecast due to the increased likelihood of humid continental air feeding into the UK. Second half Changeable weather is expected to persist throughout the period, with an ongoing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms. During intervening dry spells temperatures could rise significantly, potentially reaching very warm or hot levels, particularly in the south and east, whilst it remains cooler in the north and west. Large local variations in rainfall totals are probable. August Temperature: Above average Precipitation Below average First half A good deal of fine weather is favoured. However, more changeable spells are possible later. It is expected to be very warm or hot at times, although temperatures may fall back towards the average near the end of the period. Second half Mostly fine and warm weather is forecast for much of the period across the southern half of the UK. However, more changeable and cooler conditions are likely in the north and west, and on occasion these may extend further south. Understanding Seasonal Weather Forecasts We want to be completely clear about the limitations of seasonal weather forecasts. It's impossible to predict UK weather with certainty more than a few days in advance. The seasonal forecasts on The Weather Outlook haven't been independently verified, and we can't guarantee their accuracy. How are seasonal weather forecasts made? Seasonal forecasts predict weather patterns months ahead using four main approaches: Computer Models Advanced climate simulations that couple atmosphere and oceans. Models like ECMWF's SEAS5 and NOAA's CFSv2 run multiple scenarios (ensembles) to account for uncertainty. Analogues These compare current patterns with those in previous years to find matching weather situations. The best matching past events are then examined to see how patterns evolved to predict future conditions. Teleconnections Links between distant weather patterns, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), providing predictability months ahead. Sea Surface Temperatures Ocean temperature patterns that persist for months, influencing atmospheric conditions. SST anomalies serve as early indicators of developing weather patterns. How accurate are seasonal weather forecasts? Seasonal forecasts have varying degrees of reliability depending on several factors: Accuracy by Region Forecasts typically offer modest accuracy, with 50-60% accuracy in tropical regions influenced by ENSO events, compared to 30-40% in mid-latitudes. UK Challenges In the UK, skill levels are particularly low, largely due to its geographical position, where multiple competing air masses make long-range predictions especially challenging. Parameter Variability Forecasts are generally more reliable for temperature than precipitation, providing valuable probabilistic guidance that improves on climatology alone.