Overview
A slightly warmer than average spring with generally close to average rainfall is expected. Rainfall amounts in the north and west could tend to be higher than average with amounts in the south east closer to average. The forecast is not for a very dry spring anywhere.
Temperature
Temperatures are expected to be slightly above the long term average over the three month period. A deviation of between -0.1C to +0.9C from the 1971-2000 average is expected.
Precipitation Over the three month period precipitation levels are generally expected to be close to average.
March
Temperature: Close to average
Precipitation: Close to average (Slightly below in the south)
First half
The first half of the month is expected to bring colder conditions for a few days, and then a gradual progression to less settled weather, although in the south it should remain dry at times. As it becomes more unsettled temperatures in the north may still be low enough for some sleet or snow, especially over higher ground. Southern parts may also be chilly at times, but on the whole temperatures should become close to the seasonal average. At times showers or longer spells of rain are likely to push across the whole country.
Second half
The second half of the month should bring close to average temperatures for all parts, so in the south during drier spells it may begin to feel quite warm. Mixed weather is expected, with some unsettled spells again pushing showers or longer spells of rain across the whole of the country, but drier spells at times too.
April
Temperature: Slightly below average
Precipitation: Slightly above average
First half
The first half of the month is expected to bring a trend towards rather unsettled and at times chilly conditions with heavy showers and some longer spells of rain. It may still be cold enough at times for some wintry showers, especially in northern areas where overnight frost is also likely at times.
Second half
The second half of the month will probably see unsettled conditions for much of the time, although temperatures will probably be close to the seasonal average. As the forecast period progresses there may be an increasing chance of drier and warmer spells of weather developing, particularly in southern and central regions.
May
Temperature: Above average
Precipitation: Slightly below average
First half
After a mixed start the first half of the month is expected to bring a good deal of dry and increasingly warm conditions to much of the country. Some less settled interludes are still expected, especially in the north where more it could be cooler and wetter at times.
Second half
The second half of the month should see temperatures continuing above average for much of the time, although it may well turn less settled at times with heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain returning at times.
Forecast Issued 29/02/2012
Key
Temperature
Much above average - the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be more than 2C above the 1961-90 average
Above average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be 1C to 2C above the 1961-90 average
Close to average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be between 1C below and 1C above the 1961-90 average
Below average – the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be 1C to 2C below the 1961-90 average
Much below average - the Central England Temperature (CET) is expected to be more than 2C below the 1961-90 average
Rainfall
Much above average - expected to be more than 150% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Above average - expected to be between 125% and 150% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Close to average - expected to be between 75% and 125% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Below average – expected to be between 75% and 50% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series
Much below average - expected to be below than 50% of the England & Wales Rainfall Series