Use this thread for weather discussion which isn't covered by one of the more specific threads.

Lovely sunshine today, but this NEly feed can feck right off now as its only going "drag the clag" from the North Sea.  Bring me a so'wester breezing up the Channel any day.

Bring back a S. Westerly so it may add a few degrees to the weather .. Wet weather needed for growing now...

Oi!

May a feed from an easterly quadrant continue! We get enough westerly gunk in this region.

After what has been a lovely spring-like day yesterday here at Kentshire, it's back to general cloud cover and feeling cold at 7 C.
I can see the Atlantic-induced "breakdown" on the medium range charts, hopefully that should try and bring temperatures back up to average values and with a bit of luck the rain may do that "bypassing to my north" thing in time - but that is me trying to be optimistic.

We are going skiing at Easter to France, there just doesn't seem to be any consistency at all in the models at the moment. One run it looks like I need my swimming trunks on the slopes the next suggests thermals. Also everyone seems to packed up discussing the models and gone off for the Summer.Hey ho.

Chaotic atmosphere, there's the clue.

There were rarely any definitive indications in any of the medium (GFS, ECM) or long term models (glosea for instance) of a significant cold spell in March/April. Most of the pre-season submissions suggesting a 'late winter' were based on a blend of trends, with El Niño high on the list of influences, and many were backed-up by a decent evidence base and reasoned arguments. Some contributors are heavily biased towards the as yet little understood influence of SSW events in the northern hemispheric stratosphere, and I cite Cooling Climate as one of those, to the point of criticising anyone who suggested otherwise, including the Ukmo (monthly text outlook updated daily) who he suggested didn't know what they were talking about in saying a significant N or NE spell was a very low probability. I've learnt over the years that the weather prediction business is way too complex to be putting all your eggs into one basket.

Cooling Climate may well of been correct with his 'SSW will deliver significant cold to the UK' forecast, but despite his claims I do understand the nascent science of SSWs to a reasonable degree, enough to suggest if he had been correct it would be more by luck than judgement.

thanks for this explanation 😊

So once again this climate of ours has shown that you'll probably have better luck guessing the lotto numbers then predicting the weather weeks in advance. As charmhill said 'chaotic climate' seems to sum our climate up.

I can understand sticking to your guns about something if it's what you truly believe,  but that is a little cringe saying the metoffice don't know what they're talking about 😮 oh dear 😔

It's worth remembering a number of similar claims were made during winter 2015/16. For example on Jan 19th 2015:

Really hope the blowtorch strat warming in FI is not a red herring for this could very well be what we have been waiting for so far this season to deliver the goods.

From recollection the 'goods' weren't delivered then either. Perhaps we can expect similar predictions of their arrival next winter?

The difference may perhaps be that there wasn't, as far as I am aware, an SSW in winter 2015?

Considering the washout forecasts for Sat & Sun, we've been remarkably dry here 

What a delicious irony! All winter we've been looking at the ensembles, strat and other signals to see what the weather may be like in a couple of weeks time. Despite this today we've got the most savage spell of weather southern England has experienced for some time and it was almost unheralded until 48 hours ago. 

Heavy rain, drizzle, thunder, lightning, hail, sunny periods, cloudy periods, longish dry period, squally winds, snow, sleet, mist, frost, squall line....March 2016 is turning out one of the most varied Marches for some years. 

So can anyone provide a simple verdict / assessment of the SSW event this spring? 

Lovely sunny start here, off for a round of golf soon and it'll make a change not getting soaked right through! ...... Expecting some heavy rain this evening though, great weather for the Garden :) 

Cloudy start. Brightening up now. Sunny later..   Chickens will be sunbathing again. Their tray and sleeping quarters along with the nest boxes will be cleaned out. Plants to be planted. Just the day.. All in short sleeve order with no jumper on.... 

As this is not a full report on my observations (free time is limited and better spent on physical activities I find!), I figure some stats on March rainfall may as well go in this thread:

Despite having having 18 dry days (with 14 in a row 10th-23rd), large rainfall events on 9th (37.9 mm) and 27th-28th (30 mm) combined with 10 days of fairly typical totals to produce a sum of 106 mm for the month, which in my series back to 2000 is second only to 2001 (111.5 mm). Quite remarkable for the first month of spring - it's more like what you'd expect in a hot summer's month featuring a few isolated but mighty downpours.

I thought to check these stats after trying to sit on a grassy mound today only to find that it was surprisingly spongy and damp. The dry, sunny conditions with a keen breeze had fooled me into thinking it would be dried out!

The problem is, it's not enough to counter the fact that 2016 has had the second wettest first three months in my records; its total of 335.3 mm is a whole 40.6 mm clear of the third place year, which as it happens is 2001 (294.7 mm).

Yet it's still a long way short of the title holder - 2014, which had a ridiculous 454.0 mm during the same period!  

At least there's been a good amount of sunshine - this is the third sunniest year on record so far, behind 2003 and, funnily enough, 2014. This is thanks to mobile weather in Jan and Feb - there tends to be a lot of sunshine in between the frontal systems and showers.

 I have to admit that while it is being a lovely bright morning at this end, there is still that pinch in the air where I'm having to wait until the sun swings around to the front of my west-facing house to provide some solar heating indoors without resorting to turning the heating on (whenever the sun is out, of course!).
  Nice for airing the house out, but not quite so appealing for my elderly mother who complain about feeling "freezing cold" even in the middle of a heatwave. You know, there is always that type of person in the house.

Can anyone help with this one? Early March, say 12 years ago estimate? It was 7 degrees here and live BBC news in London (It might have been Nicholas W) was being reported in really heavy snow. Estimate 6pm? I thought with amazement- how can this be? Then, during the evening, the temperature fell so that I barely checked the thermometer for an hour and it was just above zero. I went outside and the snow was blowing around in drifts and it laid.

I have tried many times looking at the 850s and my records which record max & min & I can't pinpoint this event. If anybody knows, it's someone on TWO.

I remember April 1986 as a miserable affair apart from a day or so towards the end; surveying with the OS I was frequently dodging snow showers. April 83 seemed colder overall but without the snow. April 89 had snow laying even here. That's the central south for you, but how do these other years compare to this year where you are?