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The Queen’s Diamond Jubilee weekend – Update

Posted Wed, 16 May 2012 07:57:04

The Queen’s Diamond Jubilee celebrations and bank holiday weekend are still a long way off in weather terms, but they are now just in the timeframe covered by the GFS/GEFS weather forecasting models. So what’s on offer? As you’d expect things are still uncertain, but some trends and themes are beginning to emerge. The general theme through next week is for unsettled weather to continue, but there are signs of high pressure to the north of Britain increasingly beginning to influence our weather, with a growing chance of dry conditions pushing down into Scotland, Northern Ireland and then into more northern parts of England. Once high pressure begins to exert its influence it can last for quite a long time, so if that trend continued through the following week we could see drier and warmer weather developing further south too, and the run up to the Diamond Jubilee weekend would possibly not too bad. However, there’s no assurance at all at this stage of dry weather for the bank holiday weekend, but I’m ‘slightly’ optimistic and keeping my fingers crossed. If you’re using the 16 day weather forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook remember they update every 6 hours to use the latest forecast data, and the best way of using these at their extended range (e.g. more than 5 days ahead) is to frequently check them and look for trends and consistency. If they are changing substantially and frequently it’s a good sign that confidence is low, but this will increase as the time of the forecast approaches. So keep checking and keep your fingers crossed.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Storm clouds gather over Berkhamsted

Another storm brewing! Torrential downpours here today, and cold too. Rain, hail, thunder, but yet to see snow!!!!

Posted at Tue, 15 May 2012 15:08:16

The Queen’s Diamond Jubilee weekend

As I said the other day, it’s still too early to be confident about the what the weather will be like for the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee celebrations between 2-5 June 2012, but that’s no reason not to start looking at how it could develop. It still looks as though mean pressure to the north of the UK could be higher than average, and that suggests a flat west or south westerly flow is unlikely which could be read as good news because the prevailing south westerly flow brings changeable conditions, with low pressure systems moving east, followed by transient ridge of high pressure which bring a day or two of reprieve from the Atlantic muck. On the other hand it could be read as bad news too, because low pressure systems can be forced to take a more southerly track, becoming slow moving and sticking over the UK, with the risk of prolonged spells of wet weather. There is another possibility though, and that’s for high pressure to become more extensive, spreading further south and east inot the continent, causing low pressure systems to stall to the west of the UK, which then causes very warm air to be pulled up from North Africa or southern Europe. The classic conditions for a ‘Spanish Plume’ heat wave. Personally I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for this last option, but at the moment that’s just a hope and I’m not suggesting it’s the most likely outcome. Bank holiday heat waves seem to be as rare as hen’s teeth, but we can keep hoping.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Posted at Mon, 14 May 2012 09:54:11

Gardeners beware

It’s looking as though we’ll have some very cold nights during the coming week, with frosts likely at times even in more southern parts of Britain. I’ve pasted in the latest minimum temperature forecast chart 6GMT Thursday 17th May from the GFS computer model, and it shows values are low as a bone chillingly cold -5C (27F) in parts of Central England. That’s very likely to be overstating the depth of the cold, and it’s worth keeping an eye on subsequent runs (remember those charts are updated every 6 hours) to look for consistency. I expect we’ll see that cold moderated as the forecast time approaches, but if you do have frost sensitive plants outside take note and be prepared!

Posted at Sun, 13 May 2012 11:05:14

The Queen’s Diamond Jubilee

The Queen celebrates 60 years as Monarch in 2012, and celebrations will culminate in a series of events between 2-5 June 2012. So will the weather be kind? As most of you will know the weather more than a few days ahead in the UK is often very difficult to predict, so given that we’re talking about a period that is still several weeks away, it is too early to be confident. Recent weeks have brought very unsettled weather to most of the country, and there has been enough rain for some of the drought orders to be lifted already. In the short term it looks as though the unsettled theme will continue, albeit with drier and brighter days at times, for example this weekend looks ok for much of Britain. Looking a couple of weeks ahead and it seems likely that we’ll see a positive pressure anomaly to the north of the UK, so higher pressure over Greenland, Iceland and possibly Scandinavia seems to be very possible. In winter that would be hinting at cold and snow, but at this time of the year it could either mean very wet weather or possibly very warm and drier conditions if that high pressure area can build into Scandianvia and near continent. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that eventually this type of pattern will build and we’ll pull up some hot and dry weather during the summer months. In fact this year reminds me quite a lot of 1983 which brought exceptionally hot weather in July. So will we see a change for the Jubilee celebrations? I suspect by then a change in the weather patterns will be taking place, but I’d be more comfortable if the celebrations were taking place in late June or early July. I’ll post regular updates on the weather prospects in the run up to the Queen ‘s Diamond Jubilee, but at the moment I think it’s in the balance.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Posted at Sat, 12 May 2012 06:51:20

Massive contrast

The temperature gradient across the country and the near continent is very marked at the moment. I’ve pasted in the forecast maximum temperature chart for this afternoon, and as you’ll see it’s only expected to be about +2C (36F) over higher ground in parts of Scotland. Compare that with just across the English Channel, where north eastern parts of France look like reaching a scorching 25C (77F) during sunny spells, which makes it pleasant for sitting out on the beach as opposed to wrapping up in winter warmers and skiing down Cairngorm. Beyond today the outlook remains unsettled, although a ridge of high pressure should bring drier conditions for a time before low pressure returns next week. Once that clears away pressure patterns may well become slacker as we’d expect heading towards the summer, and this can lead to warmer, and possibly, but not necessarily settled weather.

Posted at Thu, 10 May 2012 09:23:20

Worst spring weather I can remember

I don’t know what the statistics say, but anecdotally this is the worst spell of spring weather I can remember in southern England, and I’ve lived in this part of the country since 1995. The combination of cloud, rain and often low temperatures really has made for an appalling spell, and ironically is in complete contrast to March which brought very dry and often mild or even warm weather. Regular readers will know that every year I grow a variety of tomato plants from seed, and then plant them outside in the open air, usually during April. This year the tomato plants are on life support, either in a polytunnels or inside! I’m close to throwing in the towel on them this year for the first time ever. So will the weather change or is the coming summer looking a write off? As usual with long range weather forecasting in the UK it’s not really possible to be very confident, let alone certain of how things will turn out. In the shorter term we’ll see more rain during the next couple of days, but things should improve for a time this weekend. Unfortunately the first half of next week looks set to bring more unsettled weather, at least to central and northern parts. Beyond this the uncertainty increases, but I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that the summer won’t be a write off. Fingers crossed for the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Posted at Wed, 09 May 2012 07:51:14

Very cold start to the bank holiday

Bank holiday Monday started off with very low temperatures across much of the country. In the north temperatures were below 0C (32F) in quite a number of places, and even in the south it was close to freezing around the Greater London area, with a ground frost . You can see the lowest values at a number of location on our weather archive page. Cloud and rain are now moving in from the west, and it is looking like a poor bank holiday unfortunately. Nothing unusual there I suppose!

Posted at Mon, 07 May 2012 07:35:57

Weather battleground

The coming week could well bring some very interesting as the boundary between warm and cold air masses straddles the country and tries to edge further north. I’ve pasted in the forecast maximum temperature chart for Wednesday afternoon, and it’s showing a huge temperature variation over a very small distance. High ground in the north is stuck at +1C whilst the temperature a couple of hundred miles south soars to a balmy 18C. Remember this is a forecast chart and the details could well be wrong at this range, but it does give a good indication of the general picture. With this massive temperature gradient I would think there is the potential for some very significant rainfall to occur. Bands of rain are likely to dart up from the south west and head towards Britain (check out the chart viewer page, select Atlantic and Eur precip and then step through and you’ll see this well) from Monday onwards. The exact trajectory they’ll take isn’t certain, so the advice is to keep up to date with the forecast because on some days during the coming week parts of Britain can expect to get very wet. By next weekend it looks as though pressure will be rising from the west, and that could well bring drier weather. Will that finally be the start of a significant change in the weather patterns? Wait and see!

Posted at Sun, 06 May 2012 11:03:48

Can you tell me what the weather will be like on..?

It’s getting to the time of year when the most common to TWO is “Can you tell me what the weather will be like on…” Unfortunately due to the number of requests it’s not possible to reply to everyone asking for a bespoke forecast. My advice when looking more than a few days ahead (more than a few days ahead) would be to check the postcode forecasts on the site regularly as they are updated every 6 hours and look for trends and patterns. For example, if the forecast with an initial lead time of 10 days is consistent as the date gets nearer, the confidence level in it being right increases. If as the time approaches the forecast is still changing considerably then it is a good sign that confidence in any one outcome is relatively low. Those of you with more time and inclination to dig a little deeper should take a look at our model chart viewer page as this gives you access to a number of computer models including the GEFS ensemble which is a great tool for assessing confidence levels.