Still grim out there folks

DEW that's one of the key reasons she's got that rise

But its not only by sacking workers that Rosenfeld is going to squeeze even more profitability out of their new aquisition. In a masterclass of nasty, dehumanised super-capitalism Kraft are going to get the remaining UK workforce to "voluntarily" give up their right to a final salary pension. This despite a clause in cadbury's original trust deed that expressly precluded such an action that could change benefits to members that is actuarily judged to be unfair or materially detrimental.

Hence the need for a "voluntary" response from the workforce to accept a scheme with lower benefits to members/costs to Kraft. In order to pursuade the workforce of the merits of this change Rosenfeld's team have employed the not so subtle tactic of a threatened 3 year pay freeze. 

Kraft claim to have been unaware of the clause in the pension deed when the made the takeover Either the old Cadbury board have played a fast one, or the due diligence was shonky. Either way, the outcome is shocking for the workforce...as usual in these matters. But hey, well done Mrs rosenfeld on her pay hike

Indeed Simon.  I would certainly recommend folks take advantage of the current beneign (from the debtors point of view)  environment to reduce  capital sums owed.

Inflationary pressures are likley to be  felt here  irrespective of the state of the UK economy becuse of a depreciating Pound and  foreign  demand for commodities.

The reality for most is that their biggest capital debt is their mortgage, and given the sums involved most people, starved of pay rises, are using the low interest rate regime to tread water. People on average incomes aren't going to be able to knock anything off their mortgages because the slack isn't there.

I'm talkiing about the run of the mill family here, rather than the young and old.

I'm talking about that vast rump of society - the family with a couple of kids. You and I both remarked last year that while inflation was virtually non existent in the statistical sense our food bills were shooting through the roof.

Add the cost of petrol, council tax (a 2.5% increase is something to jump up and down about with joy, apparently), increasing rates on credit card debts (to restore balamce sheets of the providers), the lack of pay rise actually means a lot of people aren't actually benefiting much from the low interest environment.

The funny thing about retail parks etc is that I suppose we expect them to be barren wastelands in a recession like this. Really though lost of people are in work, and are buying things. A 5% drop in retail sales would be horrendous, and yet that could be represented by just 5,000 less people visiting Bluewater (Assuming a figure of 100,000 footfall which could be way out). Could you tell if that was the case? 95,000 people is still an awful lot, after all. 

And that's the rub. When mortgage rates increase more people will be on base rate than was the case before the CC. It was about 11% then but with the lack of deals now available and the vastly higher eligibility criteria a large number of people are going to notice each increase...drip...drip...drip. When that drip gets to £100 a month, and pay hasn't increased, and petrol approaches 130p a litre etc etc...and the public sector is hit by redundancies at the same time...that's the explosive mix which any new government will have to manage. 

Promise?

note that IOD survey shows optimism in the service sector and pretty poor in manufacturing. if we take the upturn in the service sector to be a consequence of the upturn in the manufacturing sector that we saw Q4 2009, the lack of forward movement in manufacturing Q1 2010 (despite good march purchsg managers survey) will likely lead to a fall off in the service sector Q3 and Q4 2010. amazing to see the OECD forecasting decent UK growth second half 2010 when the eurozone is now showing no growth Q4 2009 following the slow pick up Q2/Q3 2009. methinks the OECD are beind the curve. doesnt feel great out there.

Where are the fuel protestors when they are needed?

Petrol prices hit record high

Yes, this is becoming an issue.  I have a relatively small commute, but my weekly outgoing on road fuel has now become a bill of some consequence.   This is bound to eat into disposable income and the ability of people to save at a time of low wage increases and pay freezes.  Naturally it also knocks on to increased costs for business and a general rise in prices. 

Under these circumstances it is insanity for Govt. to keep "loading" tax onto fuel - This milk cow has definitely run dry