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July CET watch
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Global Warming Offline
#1 Posted : 26 June 2010 10:30:18(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,893
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke, Hants 89m asl

Will the dry and very warm weather continue into July? Will it be a hot summer? We have not really had a decent summer since 2006 but June has got us off to a good start this year.

The chart below shows we have had a real mix of temperatures in July over recent years with some very warm years but also some quite cold years. 2006 was obviously the warmest with 19.7C. In 2007 it was just 15.2C. A number of other years have been in the 15s. Only four of the last ten Julys have been above average and only three above 17C. The last couple of years have been just below average with 2009 at 16.1C.

The 1971-2000 July CET is 16.5C
The 1961-1990 July CET is 16.1C
The figure for 1981-2009 is 16.7C

There has been some debate about whether we should switch to Hadley data for the competition going forward given that Philip Eden seems to be updating his site less frequently of late. I think the majority of those who expressed a view were in favour of the switch so I propose that we use Hadley from July unless anyone has any strong objections. Hadley data is almost always updated every day, currently at around 11:55am BST, and the latest figures can be found here: http://hadobs.metoffice....adcet/cet_info_mean.html

Here is the chart showing the July CET each year since 1961

September 2010 data (to 4th)
Mean max: 21.9C
Mean min: 7.9C
Mean temp: 14.9C
Warmest day: 22.7C 3rd
Coldest night: 6.3C 1st
Total rain: 0.0mm
Days with measurable rain: 0
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Gavin P Offline
#2 Posted : 26 June 2010 10:58:42(UTC)
Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,370

Yep, I don't mind switching to Hadley for the competition. I'm sure we can still post Manley updates for interest though?

My July CET guess is 17.7.

A very warm month with several hot spells, interspersed by short spells of much cooler, unsettled weather - These cooler, unsettled periods probably becoming more frequent towards the end of the month.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
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Global Warming Offline
#3 Posted : 26 June 2010 11:15:38(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,893
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke, Hants 89m asl

Gavin P wrote:

I'm sure we can still post Manley updates for interest though?

Absolutely

September 2010 data (to 4th)
Mean max: 21.9C
Mean min: 7.9C
Mean temp: 14.9C
Warmest day: 22.7C 3rd
Coldest night: 6.3C 1st
Total rain: 0.0mm
Days with measurable rain: 0
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Hungry Tiger Offline
#4 Posted : 26 June 2010 14:38:09(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,809
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I think I'll wait to the middle of the week.

Gavin S.

South Cambridgeshire. 93metres asl.
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Brummie Snowman Offline
#5 Posted : 26 June 2010 16:58:45(UTC)
Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,148
Location: Birmingham
I'll go for a warmish month, CET 17.2
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Snow Hoper Offline
#6 Posted : 26 June 2010 23:27:37(UTC)
Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 7,307
Location: Somewhere in Suffolk

16C

Jon, Somewhere in Suffolk
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Caz Offline
#7 Posted : 27 June 2010 00:36:10(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 1,843
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire

I'll go with the switch.  I'm praying the end of July brings some good weather with our daughter getting married on 31st July.  I'll hang on a couple of days before giving my guess prdiction, which will probably be high and more out of wishful thinking.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Tractor Boy Offline
#8 Posted : 27 June 2010 21:22:58(UTC)
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Joined: 05/07/2006(UTC)
Posts: 248

16.9C for me please

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icegooner Offline
#9 Posted : 27 June 2010 22:07:59(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2008(UTC)
Posts: 968
Location: Harrow Weald, Middlesex

I'll go for 17.5C please.

Richard
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wallaw Offline
#10 Posted : 28 June 2010 09:14:46(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 7,273
Location: Stockton-on-Tees, County Durham (Land of Prince Bishops - Athens of the North.......STAY OUT)
17.3 for me please
Ian

Stockton-on-Tees
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Edicius81 Offline
#11 Posted : 28 June 2010 09:29:27(UTC)
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Joined: 07/06/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,376

I'm going to go for 16.7c

Waine
East London (again!)
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Gavin P Offline
#12 Posted : 28 June 2010 11:59:41(UTC)
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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,370

Think I'm inclined to bring my guess down a bit. Expect a reduction from me in the coming day or so.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
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Rob K Offline
#13 Posted : 28 June 2010 12:04:27(UTC)
Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,404
We can do better than 2006. 20.0C :)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 72m asl
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Edicius81 Offline
#14 Posted : 28 June 2010 12:28:24(UTC)
Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/06/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,376

Gavin P wrote:

Think I'm inclined to bring my guess down a bit. Expect a reduction from me in the coming day or so.

Latest GFS FI is a bit of a shocker isn't it? Sort of pattern that can take up residence for a few weeks too. I'm going to stand firm for now and check back for the next few runs.

Waine
East London (again!)
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NeilM Offline
#15 Posted : 28 June 2010 12:59:58(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 305
Location: Birmingham

Since I'm going on holiday on the 1st July, I think I'll get my guess in earlier than normal.

 

I'll go for 17.2C, warm/hot first half, rainy and cooler second half at a guess, which would be about right as I'm not back in the UK until the 15th, it'll start pouring down as soon as I get back, haha.

Stechford, Birmingham - 115m asl

Snow?? nah, cold rain Razz


My photos: www.njmurray.co.uk
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Surrey John Offline
#16 Posted : 28 June 2010 13:35:26(UTC)
Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 19/10/2007(UTC)
Posts: 371
I tending to think July could be cool in 3rd week, after a couple of warm days at the start

My (wild) guess is therefore 16.4°
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Devonian Online
#17 Posted : 29 June 2010 13:42:35(UTC)
Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 7,160
Location: South East Devon

17.6C please.
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Darren S Offline
#18 Posted : 29 June 2010 16:22:05(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,544
Location: Arborfield, Berks

17.5°C for me, please
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Duncan McAlister Offline
#19 Posted : 29 June 2010 18:20:03(UTC)
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Joined: 22/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 396

I'm tempted to go below average looking at the charts but warm nights will probably keep it just above, so 16.7C
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Arctic Hare Offline
#20 Posted : 29 June 2010 21:30:02(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/11/2008(UTC)
Posts: 1,027
Location: Bewdley, Worcs.

I'm even more undecided than usual about this one... 17.1°C, please - pretty much plucked out of the air!

Bewdley, Worcs. 90m asl.
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