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Bit of a difference.......

Last post 04-02-2008 9:41 AM by Mr_Data. 12 replies.

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03-17-2008 12:21 PM , Post ID 472,195

Mr_Data
Joined on 04-05-2006
Posts 4,393
Points 13,540

Bit of a difference.......

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Comparing the CETs for May 2006 to April 2007 with May 2007 to February 2008.

             2006             2007          Difference
May        12.3             11.9            (-0.4)
Jun         15.9             15.1             (-0.8)
Jul          19.7             15.2            (-4.5)
Aug        16.1             15.4            (-0.7)
Sep        16.8             13.8            (-3.0)
Oct         13.0             10.9             (-2.1)
Nov         8.1              7.3              (-0.8)
Dec        6.5               4.9               (-1.6)

            2007             2008
Jan         7.0               6.6              (-0.4)
Feb        5.8               5.4               (-0.4)
Mar        7.2               ??               ??
Apr        11.2              ??               ??

CET for May 06-Apr 07: 11.63
CET for May 07-Apr 08: ??

CET for May 06-Feb 07: 12.12
CET for May 07-Feb 07: 10.65
A difference of -1.47C

There is a good chance that March 08 will have a CET lower than March 07 and it is going to be staggering if April 08 is warmer than April 07, so it could be quite a drop from the dizzy heights of May 06-Apr 07

Nov 94-Oct 95 CET: 11.07
Nov 95-Oct 96 CET: 9.3
A difference of -1.77

Manchester Winter Index for 2008-09

1962-63: 501
1988-89: 20

Post Points: 35

03-17-2008 3:31 PM , Post ID 472,292 In reply to

Twister
Joined on 04-05-2006
East Kent
Posts 1,627
Points 4,295

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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Thanks Kevin - a remarkable set of stats! It's looking odds on for 11 consecutive months - we'll see whether April 08 can also outcool April 07! oShocked oSmile

Twister - on a whirlwind TWO adventure!

Days of thunder:
2008: 8 (Apr 14,24; May 28; Jun 12; July 2#; Aug 6, 7; Oct 30) [[2007: 11; 2006: 11]]

Ground frosts 08/09: 7 (Oct 4,17,22,25,28; Nov 12,17)

"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

Post Points: 20

03-17-2008 3:44 PM , Post ID 472,295 In reply to

Shez5690
Joined on 11-20-2007
Posts 116
Points 360

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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Thanks Mr Data, this is very interesting. oSmile It will be fascinating in the long term to see whether this becomes part of a real downward trend, or whether it's just a 'blip' or random chance event that won't be significant when we look back on it in years to come Smile

Bridgnorth, Shropshire
75M ASL

Post Points: 20

03-17-2008 5:10 PM , Post ID 472,316 In reply to

Sevendust
Joined on 04-05-2006
Posts 19,703
Points 77,100

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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Shez5690:

Thanks Mr Data, this is very interesting. It will be fascinating in the long term to see whether this becomes part of a real downward trend, or whether it's just a 'blip' or random chance event that won't be significant when we look back on it in years to come

VERY interesting stats. I think a few of our members will be feeling a tad smug(rightly or wrongly) oWink

Dave (Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps)

Post Points: 5

03-17-2008 5:29 PM , Post ID 472,325 In reply to

Hungry Tiger
Joined on 04-11-2006
Posts 7,161
Points 12,255

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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Mr_Data:

Comparing the CETs for May 2006 to April 2007 with May 2007 to February 2008.

             2006             2007          Difference
May        12.3             11.9            (-0.4)
Jun         15.9             15.1             (-0.8)
Jul          19.7             15.2            (-4.5)
Aug        16.1             15.4            (-0.7)
Sep        16.8             13.8            (-3.0)
Oct         13.0             10.9             (-2.1)
Nov         8.1              7.3              (-0.8)
Dec        6.5               4.9               (-1.6)

            2007             2008
Jan         7.0               6.6              (-0.4)
Feb        5.8               5.4               (-0.4)
Mar        7.2               ??               ??
Apr        11.2              ??               ??

CET for May 06-Apr 07: 11.63
CET for May 07-Apr 08: ??

CET for May 06-Feb 07: 12.12
CET for May 07-Feb 07: 10.65
A difference of -1.47C

There is a good chance that March 08 will have a CET lower than March 07 and it is going to be staggering if April 08 is warmer than April 07, so it could be quite a drop from the dizzy heights of May 06-Apr 07

Nov 94-Oct 95 CET: 11.07
Nov 95-Oct 96 CET: 9.3
A difference of -1.77

Clear proof if there was one that things are cooling down somewhat.

But then again its all part of the natural cycle. Smile

Gavin S. Cambridgeshire. 93m ASL.

2395 posts on the old forum.

"At a time of universal deceit - telling the truth
is a revolutionary act." ~ George Orwell

Post Points: 20

03-17-2008 5:55 PM , Post ID 472,386 In reply to

TomC
Joined on 04-27-2006
Rochdale
Posts 3,071
Points 20,845

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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Hungry Tiger:

Mr_Data:

Comparing the CETs for May 2006 to April 2007 with May 2007 to February 2008.

             2006             2007          Difference
May        12.3             11.9            (-0.4)
Jun         15.9             15.1             (-0.8)
Jul          19.7             15.2            (-4.5)
Aug        16.1             15.4            (-0.7)
Sep        16.8             13.8            (-3.0)
Oct         13.0             10.9             (-2.1)
Nov         8.1              7.3              (-0.8)
Dec        6.5               4.9               (-1.6)

            2007             2008
Jan         7.0               6.6              (-0.4)
Feb        5.8               5.4               (-0.4)
Mar        7.2               ??               ??
Apr        11.2              ??               ??

CET for May 06-Apr 07: 11.63
CET for May 07-Apr 08: ??

CET for May 06-Feb 07: 12.12
CET for May 07-Feb 07: 10.65
A difference of -1.47C

There is a good chance that March 08 will have a CET lower than March 07 and it is going to be staggering if April 08 is warmer than April 07, so it could be quite a drop from the dizzy heights of May 06-Apr 07

Nov 94-Oct 95 CET: 11.07
Nov 95-Oct 96 CET: 9.3
A difference of -1.77

Clear proof if there was one that things are cooling down somewhat.

But then again its all part of the natural cycle.

Just like Nov 94-Oct 95 to Nov 95-Oct 96, I think you'll fund that 12 month changes in CET of more than 1C are not uncommon, especialy if you don't stick to calender years. Mr Data know how common ?

Post Points: 50

03-17-2008 6:50 PM , Post ID 472,444 In reply to

weatherwise
Joined on 04-05-2006
Bedford
Posts 3,291
Points 3,890

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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Good post TomC, I was worried where this was heading.... oWink

Joe
Bedford
30m ASL
Live Weather
Last 10 years (CET using 1971-2000 average)
23 warm seasons
0 cold seasons
(more than half a degree either side of average)

Post Points: 35

03-17-2008 8:48 PM , Post ID 472,557 In reply to

scillydave
Joined on 04-05-2006
Hawkinge, Kent 175m ASL
Posts 63
Points 320

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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There are lies, dammned lies and then statistics. You can make them show whatever you want to. Big Smile

Post Points: 5

03-17-2008 9:15 PM , Post ID 472,617 In reply to

Sevendust
Joined on 04-05-2006
Posts 19,703
Points 77,100

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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weatherwise:

Good post TomC, I was worried where this was heading....

LOL Joe - I was awaiting a response from certain other posters but surprisingly none have come along yet oWink

Dave (Alton - deep in the Hampshire Alps)

Post Points: 5

03-18-2008 8:34 AM , Post ID 472,834 In reply to

Mr_Data
Joined on 04-05-2006
Posts 4,393
Points 13,540

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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TomC:

Just like Nov 94-Oct 95 to Nov 95-Oct 96, I think you'll fund that 12 month changes in CET of more than 1C are not uncommon, especialy if you don't stick to calender years. Mr Data know how common ?

They do happen but they are not that frequent. I suspected there would be some sort of "collapse" after the excessive warmth.

Interestingly if you compare May 06-April 07 with May 05-Apr 06

                2005          2006       Difference
May          11.4           12.3         (+0.9)
June          15.5          15.9         (+0.4)
July           16.9          19.7         (+2.8)
Aug           16.3          16.1         (-0.2)
Sep           15.2          16.8         (+1.6)
Oct           13.1          13.0         (-0.1)
Nov           6.2            8.1          (+1.9)
Dec           4.4           6.5           (+2.1)

               2006          2007
Jan          4.3             7.0          (+2.7)
Feb         3.7             5.8          (+2.1)
Mar         4.9             7.2          (+2.3)
Apr          8.6            11.2         (+3.6)

May 05-Apr 06 CET: 10.04
May 06-Apr 07 CET: 11.63

A difference of +1.59

A definite spike in the CET graph.

Manchester Winter Index for 2008-09

1962-63: 501
1988-89: 20

Post Points: 20

03-18-2008 4:35 PM , Post ID 473,082 In reply to

Miss Dot Com
Joined on 04-05-2006
Witham, Essex- 27masl
Posts 2,327
Points 11,125

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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Mr_Data:

TomC:

Just like Nov 94-Oct 95 to Nov 95-Oct 96, I think you'll fund that 12 month changes in CET of more than 1C are not uncommon, especialy if you don't stick to calender years. Mr Data know how common ?

They do happen but they are not that frequent. I suspected there would be some sort of "collapse" after the excessive warmth.

Interestingly if you compare May 06-April 07 with May 05-Apr 06

                2005          2006       Difference
May          11.4           12.3         (+0.9)
June          15.5          15.9         (+0.4)
July           16.9          19.7         (+2.8)
Aug           16.3          16.1         (-0.2)
Sep           15.2          16.8         (+1.6)
Oct           13.1          13.0         (-0.1)
Nov           6.2            8.1          (+1.9)
Dec           4.4           6.5           (+2.1)

               2006          2007
Jan          4.3             7.0          (+2.7)
Feb         3.7             5.8          (+2.1)
Mar         4.9             7.2          (+2.3)
Apr          8.6            11.2         (+3.6)

May 05-Apr 06 CET: 10.04
May 06-Apr 07 CET: 11.63

A difference of +1.59

A definite spike in the CET graph.

What goes up, must come down oWink Interesting difference but like has already been said, its not entirely unexpected especially after the recording breaking years we've had just lately.

Witham, Essex -27masl
Old TWO post count 22254

My website

Post Points: 5

03-19-2008 4:42 PM , Post ID 473,880 In reply to

lanky
Joined on 04-05-2006
Posts 205
Points 575

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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TomC:

Just like Nov 94-Oct 95 to Nov 95-Oct 96, I think you'll fund that 12 month changes in CET of more than 1C are not uncommon, especialy if you don't stick to calender years. Mr Data know how common ?

According to the CET data since 1659 pretty common About 18% of years have a previous year's CET more than 1C different up or down

What is much less common is for every month of a year to be colder than the same month of the previous year even if you don't stick to calendar years. This looks quite likely for May 2007-Apr 2008 as per Mr Data's stats but has only happened 4 times before:

Feb 1782 to Jan 1783 (compared to previous 12 months)

Nov 1878 to Oct 1879

Jul 1950 to Jun 1951

Feb 1962 to Feb 1963 (13 consecutive months)

probably random and definitely arcane but still fascinating to number addicts oWink

Martin
Richmond, Surrey

Post Points: 5

04-02-2008 9:41 AM , Post ID 484,617 In reply to

Mr_Data
Joined on 04-05-2006
Posts 4,393
Points 13,540

Re: Bit of a difference.......

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Comparing the CETs for May 2006 to April 2007 with May 2007 to March 2008.

            2007             2008
Jan         7.0               6.6              (-0.4)
Feb        5.8               5.4               (-0.4)
Mar        7.2               6.1               (-1.1)
Apr        11.2              ??               ??

CET for May 06-Apr 07: 11.63
CET for May 07-Apr 08: ??

CET for May 06-Mar 07: 11.67
CET for May 07-Mar 07: 10.24
A difference of -1.43

Manchester Winter Index for 2008-09

1962-63: 501
1988-89: 20

Post Points: 5

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