AIMSIR:

politics and economics are for sure .man made.there are major doubts about climate change being man made.define lunacy.

 

Sorry but there are not any doubts that climate change is at least partly man made.  The debate about the extent of underlying natural cycles might be continuing in some places but the basic science is established.

The issue is about dealing with the risk of the adverse consequences of climate change.  The debate amongst those who understand the issues has moved on from questioning whather we are chaning the climate.

You really do need to apply more critical judgement to what you dredge up on the Internet.

If the BBC repeats last night's programme "The American Future" I recommend that you watch it.  Part of it was about the long drought in Arizona and how the climate is changing and the need to conserve water.  Then there were soundbites from presidential candidate John McCain - the Republican, remember - talking about the need to deal with climate change.

Gandalf The White:

AIMSIR:

politics and economics are for sure .man made.there are major doubts about climate change being man made.define lunacy.

 

Sorry but there are not any doubts that climate change is at least partly man made.  The debate about the extent of underlying natural cycles might be continuing in some places but the basic science is established.

The issue is about dealing with the risk of the adverse consequences of climate change.  The debate amongst those who understand the issues has moved on from questioning whether we are changing the climate.

You really do need to apply more critical judgement to what you dredge up on the Internet.

If the BBC repeats last night's programme "The American Future" I recommend that you watch it.  Part of it was about the long drought in Arizona and how the climate is changing and the need to conserve water.  Then there were soundbites from presidential candidate John McCain - the Republican, remember - talking about the need to deal with climate change.

Sorry no doubts! Well every time I read post like this the alarm bells start ringing!!!!!!!!!

Solar Cycles:

Sorry no doubts! Well every time I read post like this the alarm bells start ringing!!!!!!!!!

 

Because?

Perhaps the alarm bells you can hear ringing are warning of problems ahead if we don't start to address the problem. 

 

Gandalf The White:

Because?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synaesthasia

Ulric:

Gandalf The White:

Because?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synaesthasia

 

ROFL   You should be on the stage, Ulric!

I was thinking of suggesting tinnitus, but your explanation is better...

Gandalf The White:

AIMSIR:

politics and economics are for sure .man made.there are major doubts about climate change being man made.define lunacy.

 

Sorry but there are not any doubts that climate change is at least partly man made.  The debate about the extent of underlying natural cycles might be continuing in some places but the basic science is established.

The issue is about dealing with the risk of the adverse consequences of climate change.  The debate amongst those who understand the issues has moved on from questioning whather we are chaning the climate.

You really do need to apply more critical judgement to what you dredge up on the Internet.

If the BBC repeats last night's programme "The American Future" I recommend that you watch it.  Part of it was about the long drought in Arizona and how the climate is changing and the need to conserve water.  Then there were soundbites from presidential candidate John McCain - the Republican, remember - talking about the need to deal with climate change.

You mean following on from the discussion of similar yet more severe drought conditions which were one of the influential factors associated with the Dust Bowl?

Michael:

You mean following on from the discussion of similar yet more severe drought conditions which were one of the influential factors associated with the Dust Bowl?

 

Your point being? 

Seriously, yes I agree - this is an extension of the "How much is due to natural cycles" debate, isn't it? We won't know for a few more years whether this is entirely natural or something more.  I haven't done the research so I don't know if this drought in the west is more severe and longer lasting than others that have gone before. 

 A paper on atmospheric CO2... http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ClimateChange_Nicol.pdf

Gandalf The White:

 I haven't done the research so I don't know if this drought in the west is more severe and longer lasting than others that have gone before. 

Neither have I!

What it did highlight perfectly though is CO2 aside we can have a rapid and negative impact on parts of our enviroment that is both unnecessary and avoidable (not to mention counterproductive in the longer term). Basically whether one is convinced of the scale of AGW, the forecasts or even its existence you should not ignore other environmental factors. I'm not suggesting that most or even many do, just that it's an important message.

Michael:

Gandalf The White:

 I haven't done the research so I don't know if this drought in the west is more severe and longer lasting than others that have gone before. 

Neither have I!

What it did highlight perfectly though is CO2 aside we can have a rapid and negative impact on parts of our enviroment that is both unnecessary and avoidable (not to mention counterproductive in the longer term). Basically whether one is convinced of the scale of AGW, the forecasts or even its existence you should not ignore other environmental factors. I'm not suggesting that most or even many do, just that it's an important message.

 

Agreed.  Wouldn't it be nice if all of the discussions/debates could be conducted in similarly civilised tones? 

Just a bit of anecdotal evidence. It does not mean much in the scheme of things, but this kind of thing is worth following.

Alaska glaciers grew this year, thanks to colder weather

Two hundred years of glacial shrinkage in Alaska, and then came the winter and summer of 2007-2008.

Unusually large amounts of winter snow were followed by unusually chill temperatures in June, July and August.

"In mid-June, I was surprised to see snow still at sea level in Prince William Sound," said U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Bruce Molnia. "On the Juneau Icefield, there was still 20 feet of new snow on the surface of the Taku Glacier in late July. At Bering Glacier, a landslide I am studying, located at about 1,500 feet elevation, did not become snow free until early August.

"In general, the weather this summer was the worst I have seen in at least 20 years."

Never before in the history of a research project dating back to 1946 had the Juneau Icefield witnessed the kind of snow buildup that came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too.

"It's been a long time on most glaciers where they've actually had positive mass balance," Molnia said.

That's the way a scientist says the glaciers got thicker in the middle

I have just taken this off the Icecap website...

 

 Global Cooling is Here!  Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades

By Professor Don Easterbrook, Western Washington University

In 2007-2008, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) and computer modelers who believe that CO2 is the cause of global warming still predict the Earth is in store for catastrophic warming in this century.  IPCC computer models have predicted global warming of 1F per decade and 5-6C (10-11F) by 2100, which would cause global catastrophe with ramifications for human life, natural habitat, energy and water resources, and food production. All of this is predicated on the assumption that global warming is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 and that CO2 will continue to rise rapidly. 

However, records of past climate changes suggest an altogether different scenario for the 21st century.  Rather than drastic global warming at a rate of 0.5C (1F) per decade, historic records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for the first several decades of the 21st century to about 2030, followed by global warming from about 2030 to about 2060, and renewed global cooling from 2060 to 2090 (Easterbrook, D.J., 2005, 2006a, b, 2007, 2008a, b); Easterbrook and Kovanen, 2000, 2001).  Climatic fuctuations over the past several hundred years suggest ~30 year climatic cycles of global warming and cooling, on a general rising trend from the Little Ice Age. 

See larger image here

Now a decade later, the global climate has not warmed 1F as forecast by the IPCC but has cooled slightly until 2007-08 when global temperatures turned sharply downward.  In 2008, NASA satellite imagery confirmed that the Pacific Ocean had switched from the warm mode it had been in since 1977 to its cool mode, similar to that of the 1945-1977 global cooling period. The shift strongly suggests that the next several decades will be cooler, not warmer as predicted by the IPCC.

Global temperature projection for the coming century, based on warming/cooling cycles of the past several centuries.  ‘A’ projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1945-1977 cool phase.  ‘B’ projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1880-1915 cool phase.  The predicted warm cycle from 2030 to 2060 is based on projection of the 1977 to 1998 warm phase and the cooling phase from 2060 to 2090 is based on projection of the 1945 to 1977 cool cycle. See larger image here

Global warming (i.e, the warming since 1977) is over.  The minute increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere (0.008%) was not the cause of the warming- it was a continuation of natural cycles that occurred over the past 500 years. 

The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling, perhaps much deeper than the global cooling from about 1945 to 1977.  Just how much cooler the global climate will be during this cool cycle is uncertain.  Recent solar changes suggest that it could be fairly severe, perhaps more like the 1880 to 1915 cool cycle than the more moderate 1945-1977 cool cycle.  A more drastic cooling, similar to that during the Dalton and Maunder minimums, could plunge the Earth into another Little Ice Age, but only time will tell if that is likely.  Read more here.

 

 

 

 

 And more freaky October weather...

 

 http://www.wlos.com/shared/newsroom/top_stories/wlos_vid_1571.shtml

Roberts:

I have just taken this off the Icecap website...

 

 Global Cooling is Here!  Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades

By Professor Don Easterbrook, Western Washington University

In 2007-2008, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) and computer modelers who believe that CO2 is the cause of global warming still predict the Earth is in store for catastrophic warming in this century.  IPCC computer models have predicted global warming of 1F per decade and 5-6C (10-11F) by 2100, which would cause global catastrophe with ramifications for human life, natural habitat, energy and water resources, and food production. All of this is predicated on the assumption that global warming is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 and that CO2 will continue to rise rapidly. 

However, records of past climate changes suggest an altogether different scenario for the 21st century.  Rather than drastic global warming at a rate of 0.5C (1F) per decade, historic records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for the first several decades of the 21st century to about 2030, followed by global warming from about 2030 to about 2060, and renewed global cooling from 2060 to 2090 (Easterbrook, D.J., 2005, 2006a, b, 2007, 2008a, b); Easterbrook and Kovanen, 2000, 2001).  Climatic fluctuations over the past several hundred years suggest ~30 year climatic cycles of global warming and cooling, on a general rising trend from the Little Ice Age. 

See larger image here

Now a decade later, the global climate has not warmed 1F as forecast by the IPCC but has cooled slightly until 2007-08 when global temperatures turned sharply downward.  In 2008, NASA satellite imagery confirmed that the Pacific Ocean had switched from the warm mode it had been in since 1977 to its cool mode, similar to that of the 1945-1977 global cooling period. The shift strongly suggests that the next several decades will be cooler, not warmer as predicted by the IPCC.

Global temperature projection for the coming century, based on warming/cooling cycles of the past several centuries.  ‘A’ projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1945-1977 cool phase.  ‘B’ projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1880-1915 cool phase.  The predicted warm cycle from 2030 to 2060 is based on projection of the 1977 to 1998 warm phase and the cooling phase from 2060 to 2090 is based on projection of the 1945 to 1977 cool cycle. See larger image here

Global warming (i.e, the warming since 1977) is over.  The minute increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere (0.008%) was not the cause of the warming- it was a continuation of natural cycles that occurred over the past 500 years. 

The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling, perhaps much deeper than the global cooling from about 1945 to 1977.  Just how much cooler the global climate will be during this cool cycle is uncertain.  Recent solar changes suggest that it could be fairly severe, perhaps more like the 1880 to 1915 cool cycle than the more moderate 1945-1977 cool cycle.  A more drastic cooling, similar to that during the Dalton and Maunder minimums, could plunge the Earth into another Little Ice Age, but only time will tell if that is likely.  Read more here.

 

 

 

 

 

O

Unfortunately all those wise wise men at the IPCC will have none of it. What with the ever increasing monies to be made from keeping the status quo, who can blame them!

Solar Cycles:

Unfortunately all those wise wise men at the IPCC will have none of it. What with the ever increasing monies to be made from keeping the status quo, who can blame them!

 

From the look of the graph, he has got the data for his pension fund mixed up with the climate. Past results are of course no guide to future performance in this area...