Tim S:

The GISS monthly temperature is +0.49C

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Now, what will get the consipiracy theorists amongst you going is the fact that the last few months' provisional GISS readings have been revised, mostly upwards. YTD is now:

+0.14C (no change), +0.25C (no change), +0.62C (up from 0.6), +0.36C (down from 0.42), +0.4C (up from 0.39), +0.29C (up from 0.27), +0.53C (up from 0.51), +0.5C (up from 0.39) and +0.49C.

The YTD anomaly is now +0.4C, up from +0.37C.

So, for sceptics this is a great double whammy as not only does it prove there is conspiracy and fraud of the highest order on the one hand, but there is also a rapid cooling of 0.01C from August to September which amounts to a massive trend of -1.2C per decade, leading to an ice age in short order.

Of course, Tim, it's the kind of utter nonsense that  keeps some blogs with thousands of hits per month going. 

We are indeed a strange species. It does seem a lot of us really would rather believe a lot of things are a conspiracy. Thus I can think  of:  Moon landings, 9/11, contact with aliens,  most tax rises, politicians, speed cams, the death of President Kennedy to Steve Fossett, etc etc etc. All of those have, often completely bonkers, conspiracy theories associated with them that a lot of people absolutely and unshakably believe in. It's truly weird and why it happens I simply cannot figure out.

Devonian:

Tim S:

The GISS monthly temperature is +0.49C

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Now, what will get the consipiracy theorists amongst you going is the fact that the last few months' provisional GISS readings have been revised, mostly upwards. YTD is now:

+0.14C (no change), +0.25C (no change), +0.62C (up from 0.6), +0.36C (down from 0.42), +0.4C (up from 0.39), +0.29C (up from 0.27), +0.53C (up from 0.51), +0.5C (up from 0.39) and +0.49C.

The YTD anomaly is now +0.4C, up from +0.37C.

So, for sceptics this is a great double whammy as not only does it prove there is conspiracy and fraud of the highest order on the one hand, but there is also a rapid cooling of 0.01C from August to September which amounts to a massive trend of -1.2C per decade, leading to an ice age in short order.

 

Of course, Tim, it's the kind of utter nonsense that  keeps some blogs with thousands of hits per month going. 

We are indeed a strange species. It does seem a lot of us really would rather believe a lot of things are a conspiracy. Thus I can think  of:  Moon landings, 9/11, contact with aliens,  most tax rises, politicians, speed cams, the death of President Kennedy to Steve Fossett, etc etc etc. All of those have, often completely bonkers, conspiracy theories associated with them that a lot of people absolutely and unshakably believe in. It's truly weird and why it happens I simply cannot figure out.

For the sake of balance, I don't think the majority of scepticism on global warming is driven by any conspiracy either. On both sides there are clearly some agenda-driven people - some environmentalists on the one hand and some big-oil and national interests on the other, but for the most part it's about ideology rather than conspiracy.

Incidentally the GISS figure works out at +0.25C when normalised to RSS & UAH basis periods, and the normalised YTD figure is +0.16C.

Surprisingly high GISS figure there but im not going to question it, the recovery from la nina is starting to show its hand and with the way October is shaping up i can imagine a figurearound 0.7 but its still early days yet, Depressing stuff

Jonny:

Surprisingly high GISS figure there but im not going to question it, the recovery from la nina is starting to show its hand and with the way October is shaping up i can imagine a figurearound 0.7 but its still early days yet, Depressing stuff

Well the revised GISS figures show temperatures dropping slightly over the last 3 months - or basically flat allowing for the error margin.  

Jonny:

Surprisingly high GISS figure there but im not going to question it, the recovery from la nina is starting to show its hand and with the way October is shaping up i can imagine a figurearound 0.7 but its still early days yet, Depressing stuff

What's that based on, the daily UAH readings?

I look at the pentad loops and anomaly loops off the IRI website http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Temp/Anomaly_Loops.html the 30 day daily anomalies show the warming into the first few days into october well and this has been continuing over the last few days the wx maps also give a clue as to how things are shaping up, neither of these are fully accurate but are showing a jump in NH land temperatures.

Jonny:

I look at the pentad loops and anomaly loops off the IRI website http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Temp/Anomaly_Loops.html the 30 day daily anomalies show the warming into the first few days into october well and this has been continuing over the last few days the wx maps also give a clue as to how things are shaping up, neither of these are fully accurate but are showing a jump in NH land temperatures.

Thats probably due to everyone turning there heating on.

According to conventional wisdom, shouldn't the GISS figures have been rising since July as we rebound from the La Nina which artificially depressed temperatures of the last year or so

Martyn:

According to conventional wisdom, shouldn't the GISS figures have been rising since July as we rebound from the La Nina which artificially depressed temperatures of the last year or so

Yes, although you wouldn't necessarily expect it to be linear over a short period given there are other short term sources of variability and each of the data series have different month on month patterns. I think the RSS pattern for tropical temps is more of a clear indication of a dissipating (albeit recently returning) la Nina. Interesting to see what the other 2 series show.

Jonny:

Surprisingly high GISS figure there but im not going to question it, the recovery from la nina is starting to show its hand and with the way October is shaping up i can imagine a figurearound 0.7 but its still early days yet, Depressing stuff

It's looking to me like TomCh and the Hadley were right with their expectations of rapidly renewed warming. I look forward to the October figure.

Pingo:

Jonny:

Surprisingly high GISS figure there but im not going to question it, the recovery from la nina is starting to show its hand and with the way October is shaping up i can imagine a figurearound 0.7 but its still early days yet, Depressing stuff

It's looking to me like TomCh and the Hadley were right with their expectations of rapidly renewed warming. I look forward to the October figure.

It could just end up being an odd month like what march was this year but who knows?, the NOAA figures will be interesting, i think i heard GISS has a bias towards anomalies in arctic regions to do with spacial distribution( im not sure about this) so I expect NOAA to come in with lower numbers than GISS, unless ocean temperatures jump up, this september had the feature of a scandanavian high pumping up warm air into the arctic resulting in the higher than expected figure probably resulting in the higher figure( especially when you see the amounts of blues scattered on the anomaly maps,(Europe, Russia, US etc...). Also i thought the initial GISS figure for august was low at 0.39 and looked something like 0.50(which it got changed to) but september did look lower. October looks bad with everwhere being warm except western US/ Alaska, greenland, NW Europe so i think the recovery from La nina is underway. I could well be wrong but thats just my take on whats happening

Jonny:

Pingo:

Jonny:

Surprisingly high GISS figure there but im not going to question it, the recovery from la nina is starting to show its hand and with the way October is shaping up i can imagine a figurearound 0.7 but its still early days yet, Depressing stuff

It's looking to me like TomCh and the Hadley were right with their expectations of rapidly renewed warming. I look forward to the October figure.

It could just end up being an odd month like what march was this year but who knows?, the NOAA figures will be interesting, i think i heard GISS has a bias towards anomalies in arctic regions to do with spacial distribution( im not sure about this) so I expect NOAA to come in with lower numbers than GISS, unless ocean temperatures jump up, this september had the feature of a scandanavian high pumping up warm air into the arctic resulting in the higher than expected figure probably resulting in the higher figure( especially when you see the amounts of blues scattered on the anomaly maps,(Europe, Russia, US etc...). Also i thought the initial GISS figure for august was low at 0.39 and looked something like 0.50(which it got changed to) but september did look lower. October looks bad with everwhere being warm except western US/ Alaska, greenland, NW Europe so i think the recovery from La nina is underway. I could well be wrong but thats just my take on whats happening

You have to remember the different baselines used and when corrected to the same NOAA and Hadley have been higher than GISS recently. This months GISS figure is very close to the satellite derived lower tropospheric measurement from RSS.

TomC:

I am not a climate modeller so I don't make predictions of rapid renewed warming in the next few months

But you can bet that Pingo thinks that the IPCC predicted 28C in the shade in Newcastle on boxing day

Tim S:

The GISS monthly temperature is +0.49C

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Now, what will get the consipiracy theorists amongst you going is the fact that the last few months' provisional GISS readings have been revised, mostly upwards. YTD is now:

+0.14C (no change), +0.25C (no change), +0.62C (up from 0.6), +0.36C (down from 0.42), +0.4C (up from 0.39), +0.29C (up from 0.27), +0.53C (up from 0.51), +0.5C (up from 0.39) and +0.49C.

The YTD anomaly is now +0.4C, up from +0.37C.

So, for sceptics this is a great double whammy as not only does it prove there is conspiracy and fraud of the highest order on the one hand, but there is also a rapid cooling of 0.01C from August to September which amounts to a massive trend of -1.2C per decade, leading to an ice age in short order.

Indeed. I have been saying these things for some time