Haven't spotted this link in here yet... Big tongue of sub 5c temps across the north sea

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

others have commented recently on the increasing likelihood of continued low temperatures in eastern europe. The last few days of model output seem to provide strong agreement on this, so it's interesting to zero in the baltic sea. Looking at current sea temperatures:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsdivka.html

and sea ice

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

(then go to web based GIS server )

you'll see that the lower half of the gulf of bothnia is close to a freeze, and there is considerable ice in the gulf of finland and the gulf of riga. Also a surprisingly large patch on the west coast of sweden, linking up with denmark (!) In 2003 there was great excitement in the media about the baltic sea ice (most since 1948 I remember reading) but looking at the archive images on the noaa site suggests that this year could easily eclipse 2003 in the baltic if the current model output verifies....(2003 was more severe in the barents sea area though)

something to watch...it might not be a continued snowfest here, but always nice to see unusual cold events elsewhere!

Latest North sea chart is here

http://www.bsh.de/aktdat/mk/nordsee/actual.pdf

and the Baltic has ice on just about every coast

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstcolor/sstcolor_20100127.pdf

should be a new detailed SST chart for Baltic on Thurs afternoon

gibbon:

you'll see that the lower half of the gulf of bothnia is close to a freeze, and there is considerable ice in the gulf of finland and the gulf of riga. Also a surprisingly large patch on the west coast of sweden, linking up with denmark (!) In 2003 there was great excitement in the media about the baltic sea ice (most since 1948 I remember reading) but looking at the archive images on the noaa site suggests that this year could easily eclipse 2003 in the baltic if the current model output verifies....(2003 was more severe in the barents sea area though)

PK2:

Just over a week ago I noticed that the Baltic ice in the Gulf of Bothnia had reduced in area compared to the previous week. Anyone any ideas?

The ice up there was generally rather thin/sparse and as a result it didn't take much of a wind to cause it to float across and "bunch up" towards the coast. Subsequently winds dropped and the process of freezing started again in the (now) open sea.

Even today the ice over much of the Gulf is open ice rather than closed ice, so ice-free areas could crop up again in the days to come if there's enough wind.

http://www.itameriportaali.fi/html/icef/jaakartta.pdf gives all the nitty-gritty details.

Latest on Baltic SSTs   maximum is 3°c    plenty of 0°c - 1°c  with coastal ice

 http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstchart/sstchart_20100128.pdf

if winds are light, expect more ice to form next week as temps are very low

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_Kopenhagen_ens.png

I've noticed the sea temps to our east are starting to get a bit on the cold side now

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack5.html

rml:

I've noticed the sea temps to our east are starting to get a bit on the cold side now

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack5.html

If the forecast very cold easterly does kick in next week I would think there is a good chance of seeing some sea ice around the coasts from Denmark down to Belgium - possibly even The Wash, which is down to just below 2C as per this chart:

http://www.bsh.de/aktdat/mk/nordsee/actual.gif

I think sea ice off our coasts defines a severe protracted cold spell and it is quite rare. 

Gandalf The White:

If the forecast very cold easterly does kick in next week I would think there is a good chance of seeing some sea ice around the coasts from Denmark down to Belgium - possibly even The Wash, which is down to just below 2C as per this chart:

http://www.bsh.de/aktdat/mk/nordsee/actual.gif

I think sea ice off our coasts defines a severe protracted cold spell and it is quite rare. 

Retron:

PK2:

Just over a week ago I noticed that the Baltic ice in the Gulf of Bothnia had reduced in area compared to the previous week. Anyone any ideas?

 

The ice up there was generally rather thin/sparse and as a result it didn't take much of a wind to cause it to float across and "bunch up" towards the coast. Subsequently winds dropped and the process of freezing started again in the (now) open sea.

Even today the ice over much of the Gulf is open ice rather than closed ice, so ice-free areas could crop up again in the days to come if there's enough wind.

http://www.itameriportaali.fi/html/icef/jaakartta.pdf gives all the nitty-gritty details.

Baltic now has ice in many parts, I can't remember so much ice on a chart

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstcolor/sstcolor_20100201.pdf

 and the SSTs,   max of 2°c

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstchart/sstchart_20100201.pdf

Bump....

Latest North Sea SSTs:

http://www.bsh.de/aktdat/mk/nordsee/actual.gif

Much of the southern North Sea is now around or below 5C.

I'm always interested to see the effect of the Gulf Stream pushing the warmer tongue of water around the top of Scotland and down into the northern North Sea.  Similar effect pushing up the Channel, which has cooled markedly in recent weeks.

The mitigating effect of SSTs on the coming cold spell will be rather less than 2-3 weeks ago.

Gandalf The White:

Bump....

Latest North Sea SSTs:

http://www.bsh.de/aktdat/mk/nordsee/actual.gif

Much of the southern North Sea is now around or below 5C.

I'm always interested to see the effect of the Gulf Stream pushing the warmer tongue of water around the top of Scotland and down into the northern North Sea.  Similar effect pushing up the Channel, which has cooled markedly in recent weeks.

The mitigating effect of SSTs on the coming cold spell will be rather less than 2-3 weeks ago.

Yep, the dikes look pretty frigid.

Now showing 0C in the very east of the chart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack5.html

Not long to go until we might see ice to our east as they are surely going to get very cold temperatures around there in the next week or so. Of coarse what we really could do with is ice from the UK all the way to Denmark then we could get some really cold easterlies

rml:

Of coarse what we really could do with is ice from the UK all the way to Denmark then we could get some really cold easterlies

From a coastal eastern location it is very nice to see negative SST anomalies for the entire North Sea.

If we do get a prolonged cold spell it would not surprise me to see a little coastal sea ice in more southern locations.

After last weeks windy weather in the Baltic which shifted and broke various ice, ice is reforming rapidly (the pink areas).  Note that some ice is Northern parts is now 60cm so wont fully melt until May

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstcolor/sstcolor_20100208.pdf

as can be seen sea temps are very low, including 0°c near Denmark

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstchart/sstchart_20100208.pdf

Surrey John:

After last weeks windy weather in the Baltic which shifted and broke various ice, ice is reforming rapidly (the pink areas).  Note that some ice is Northern parts is now 60cm so wont fully melt until May

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstcolor/sstcolor_20100208.pdf

as can be seen sea temps are very low, including 0°c near Denmark

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstchart/sstchart_20100208.pdf

There is no sea ice around Copenhagen, except that in some of the quieter inlets, the sea has frozen.

The Sandettie Lightship situated mid English Channel shows SST dipping under 7°c for the first time this winter, its currently 6.9°c.

We are now approaching the lowest sea temps (normally 3rd week of Feb)

The sun moving North and warming more, becomes stronger than cooling at night as relative length of day/night changes

The exact date will vary depending on specific weather, (and there could be a double low couple of weeks apart)

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstcolor/sstcolor_20100213.pdf

Note how Oslo Fjord has frozen (fairly rare) and is likely to stay cold

 http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_Oslo_ens.png

note  the 0°c line south of Norway

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstchart/sstchart_20100211.pdf