Afternoon all.

Discuss model output in here, but if you just want to put hyperlinks, use the links thread.

TBH, I'm a little underwhelmed by the current output. Up here in Eastern Scotland, with an onshore easterly, you really need 850's of about -8C or below to get snow. I'm a tad concerned we'll end up with a murky, snowless drizzly setup here. Quite a shame given the really promising output of a few days ago. It is marginal though so hopefully a few surprises. Looks much better further to the SE.

Onwards.

For this week maybe Joe, but surely some interest for your area in the longer term with the potential for a bitter nor'easter?

Joe Bloggs:

Afternoon all.

Discuss model output in here, but if you just want to put hyperlinks, use the links thread.

TBH, I'm a little underwhelmed by the current output. Up here in Eastern Scotland, with an onshore easterly, you really need 850's of about -8C or below to get snow. I'm a tad concerned we'll end up with a murky, snowless drizzly setup here. Quite a shame given the really promising output of a few days ago. It is marginal though so hopefully a few surprises. Looks much better further to the SE.

Onwards.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

It could be worse...

Confidence seems to be growing on a pattern like this emerging to

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2762.png

It wouldn't take much to produce something pretty good from this evolution. The whole block slide NWestwards to allow the north in on the action. unfortunately, the continental cold pool has wained by this point, but arctic air does start to filter down to offer a slight reload. I'm sure I heard somewhere Scotlands already had a bit of wintryness this season anyway

For the southern lot, the end of the week is looking interesting, with this sort of thing creeping into the more reliable range;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1171.gif

A few of these disturbances have been modelled to run along the channel as the second 'wave' of colder 850's arrives. Not just on the GFS, UKMO and ECM have been hinting at this to. Coupled with the extended METO forecast, its not looking to shabby IMO

Edit* just realised the above is full of hyperlinks. Without them it makes it a bit difficult to clarify what we're discussing? My take was the other thread is for links as the models are coming out, and then here for  bit more in depth discussion into the output? Feel free to edit/remove links etc if I've got this wrong mods.

Joe Bloggs:

TBH, I'm a little underwhelmed by the current output. Up here in Eastern Scotland, with an onshore easterly, you really need 850's of about -8C or below to get snow. I'm a tad concerned we'll end up with a murky, snowless drizzly setup here. Quite a shame given the really promising output of a few days ago. It is marginal though so hopefully a few surprises. Looks much better further to the SE.

 

Hi Joe,

I have to agree - in the short term, nothing too much to get excited about for up here, I think. Keeping a watching brief and an open mind though!

Rob K:

For this week maybe Joe, but surely some interest for your area in the longer term with the potential for a bitter nor'easter?

 

Longer term. Yep same old. 

This week could still deliver, especially later in the week, but there is a distinct possibility of it just being high pressure mush with drizzle. Even more so further north in Scotland.

Considering the potential shown a few days ago.... Firth of Forth streamers, Cbs moving in off the North Sea... then I'm a tad underwhelmed...

Edinburgh is a tough area to forecast in this area really. I genuinely don't know what the required parameters for snow on an easterly here actually are. Yes we are on the coast, but not as exposed as Graeme up in Fife or parts of East Lothian. This 00z ECM chart for instance http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-72.GIF?07-12 , I'm sure we'll get showers, but with 850's of -7C or so I'm not 100% convinced they'll be of snow.

I'd be fairly confident we'd get this setup to verify then we would get some snow though with some sufficiently low uppers. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-120.GIF?07-12

Maybe, just maybe, the 12z runs might show a bit more interest, hopefully akin to the 00z ECM. Anyway, enough of my IMBY rambling.

Quite a bit of ppn shown for tomorrow on GFS over much of the country:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn244.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs243.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs244.gif

Snow or drizzle though?

Rob K:

Quite a bit of ppn shown for tomorrow on GFS over much of the country:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn244.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs243.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs244.gif

Snow or drizzle though?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs248.gif

Snizzle would probably sum it up..

Rob K:

Quite a bit of ppn shown for tomorrow on GFS over much of the country:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn244.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs243.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs244.gif

Snow or drizzle though?

snizzle

 

Jambon - your post is fine.

Links are fine as long as they're not JUST links.

The other thread is for Gooner - style commentary.

GFS 12z so far... a bit of interest. Wouldn't be surprised to see some snow Monday night into Tuesday (some colder uppers) before high pressure moves across us.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-90.png?12 The following charts after this may be interesting. Some nice SE'ly WAA there,.... I'm, REALLY wanting that high to shift NW.

Proper cold air getting further and further from our shores it seems...

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn903.png

Virtually a UK high now with that inexorable sinking feeling...

- hope I am wrong about this.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-90.png?12 

Rob K:

Proper cold air getting further and further from our shores it seems...

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn903.png

Indeed, a pretty frustrating setup really.

not far away at all though..... http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-102.png?12 

Touch and go..

A few things to bear in mind Joe - an easterly in February will deliver more up here than in December (especially given the negative SST anomalies in the North Sea). Secondly the t850s are not too bad (in the region of -8) for much of the time. Thirdly and possibly most importantly 1000-850hPa thicknesses (a helpful indicator for snow are quite encouraging i.e. sub 129dam much of the time)

Don't despair, as much as I dislike easterlies this one is looking a little more wintry than drizzle although it will of course be marginal at times especially anywhere near the coast.

I'm not saying that it will snow up here just that it could

The 12z operational GFS  is marginally cooler than the 06z so far and every little helps

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

Rob K:

Proper cold air getting further and further from our shores it seems...

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn903.png

Virtually a UK high now with that inexorable sinking feeling...

- hope I am wrong about this.

Rob, you could be wrong, this is pretty tantalising..

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-108.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-108.png?12

What's that little cheeky low doing in the North Sea? That was picked up by the control run a little while ago too...

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-102.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-102.png?12

And as you say could be some better ridging from Scandy here

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

Michael:

A few things to bear in mind Joe - an easterly in February will deliver more up here than in December (especially given the negative SST anomalies in the North Sea). Secondly the t850s are not too bad (in the region of -8) for much of the time. Thirdly and possibly most importantly 1000-850hPa thicknesses (a helpful indicator for snow are quite encouraging i.e. sub 129dam much of the time)

Don't despair, as much as I dislike easterlies this one is looking a little more wintry than drizzle although it will of course be marginal at times especially anywhere near the coast.

I'm not saying that it will snow up here just that it could

The 12z operational GFS  is marginally cooler than the 06z so far and every little helps

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

Interesting post Doc, thanks.

I can see the train! http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-114.png?12

 The ridging into Scandinavia is stronger than on the 06z - presumably that should help us in the longer term?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

 

The train also has some more substantial snow moving into the south at +114  

Now this looks promising.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-120.png?12

Snow potential for much of Eastern Britain I'd imagine. The precipitation charts nearly always underplay convective showers. There would be quite a bit...

 

 

Joe Bloggs:

Michael:

A few things to bear in mind Joe - an easterly in February will deliver more up here than in December (especially given the negative SST anomalies in the North Sea). Secondly the t850s are not too bad (in the region of -8) for much of the time. Thirdly and possibly most importantly 1000-850hPa thicknesses (a helpful indicator for snow are quite encouraging i.e. sub 129dam much of the time)

Don't despair, as much as I dislike easterlies this one is looking a little more wintry than drizzle although it will of course be marginal at times especially anywhere near the coast.

I'm not saying that it will snow up here just that it could

The 12z operational GFS  is marginally cooler than the 06z so far and every little helps

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

Interesting post Doc, thanks.

I can see the train! http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-114.png?12

No probs. The 4th point I forgot to add was never trust the 06z GFS in isolation (even if it's good ). For some reason the 06z GFS seems to be a good deal less reliable for the UK than the other runs. The 00z and 12z seem to be the best - not sure if there are stats to back that up it just seems the 00z and 12z are more reliable.

A better run so far: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png