http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2006_seaiceminimum/20060816_arcticseaicenews.html

http://www.abmcdonald.freeserve.co.uk/north.htm

http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/arcisoTTPPWW.gif

http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/nsidc0046_nh_ease_snow_seaice/browse/viewer.html

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/apr/global.html#Introduction

Please keep this thread on topic

We are currently in the period of fastest melt in the Arctic, though the melt is never a linear process, as the amounts in the Arctic basin clearly show. Then difficulties of seperating slushy ice from other ice types often explains the changes. Amounts of ice are running, just about, neck and neck with last year and the anomaly is at the lowest ever. If we do not get the same kind of unusual, stormy conditions as last year, I feel we will get a record low.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

SWZ

I'm not entirely convinced by the data over the last few days as it would imply an increase in the Arctic Basin in the last 2-3 days. I suspect the big drop was anomalous and the current levels shown are accurate (i.e. a steady downward trend ratherthan a massive overnight drop and then recovery). That is however pure conjecture on my part!

I think you were right Michael. As I've said before, during the melt season (or freezing season, for that matter) any anomalies during the season have to be taken with an enormous spoonful of salt. Arctic conditions vary through the seasons and what happens, on a weekly, or a monthly, basis, during the seasons only has local effects. The outcome at the end of the melt, or freeze seasons, for the whole Arctic is what counts. talking about current conditions speculating on the final figure, is fun though, as is figuring out why local areas are above, or below the average.

To bring us up to date and speculate; Arctic Sea ice levels are below what they were this time last year. The overall anomaly must be close to record figures and, unless we get exceptionally cold summer temperatures, or particularly stormy conditions, I'd expect there to be lowest amount of Acrtic Sea ice ever reporded by early September, when the freezing season will begin again. With the potential for this record low, I also expect the NW passage to be open this year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

SWZ

 

Is it true that june07 saw the largest loss of sea ice ever recorded in a single month?

The negative anomaly has turned close to record-breaking and the drop in ice area steepened during June, from a situation where the ice was above last year's comparative levels, to a situation where is it presently below last year's levels, therefore the amount of ice that melted was high. I don't know whether is was record-breaking, rc1.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

Ice-thickness comes into this as well and not just ice area. To estimate ice thickness, scientists have relied on submarine measurements in the past, but the sampling of these thicknesses was not as systematic, or as regular as would be liked, for obvious reasons.

Launched in 2003, Icesat, a NASA instrument, already sends back some satellite information, but CryoSat-2, scheduled for launch in March 2009 will help further with this (fingers crossed that it doesn't suffer the same fate as CryoSat which was lost after a launch failure!).

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/070312111341.htm

Presently, judgements of the amount of Arctic Ice are made mainly with reference to extent. 

SWZ

There seem to be contradictions again between the sea ice index score on NSIDC for June, and the cryosphere today charts. They're not strictly a like-for-like comparison but even so the difference appears large.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png (you may need to refresh to bring up June)

versus:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

Best wait until the end of season to make any judgments, I think.

I'm still baffled by the relatively high (and increasing) ice concentration in the Canadian archipelago in conditions that are up to 10C above average and well above freezing. Must be local circulation anomalies piling the stuff up.

SW Zephyr:

The negative anomaly has turned close to record-breaking and the drop in ice area steepened during June, from a situation where the ice was above last year's comparative levels, to a situation where is it presently below last year's levels, therefore the amount of ice that melted was high. I don't know whether is was record-breaking, rc1.

SWZ

I thought it was record breaking because it was said here and a chart was also shown:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=38352&st=153&start=153

Read the bottom of the page on that link.

 

rc1:

SW Zephyr:

The negative anomaly has turned close to record-breaking and the drop in ice area steepened during June, from a situation where the ice was above last year's comparative levels, to a situation where is it presently below last year's levels, therefore the amount of ice that melted was high. I don't know whether is was record-breaking, rc1.

SWZ

I thought it was record breaking because it was said here and a chart was also shown:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=38352&st=153&start=153

Read the bottom of the page on that link.

It could be, rc1, but the graphs posted on there show the anomaly from the mean, not the amount of ice that melted during June. The two are probably linked, but the record-breaking anomaly does not in itself, point to a record-breaking loss of ice in June. The change, over the month, in the comparison to last year's levels is a better indicator, but even that is not conclusive. I don't know where the poster Iceberg, got that statement from; it may well be correct, but without a link I can't yet judge and I haven't found anything to confirm it - though I suspect it may be true.

SWZ 

The cryosphere today charts continue to show steady ice loss, at about the rate you'd expect for the time of year (but from an abnormally low base). Can't seem to get the page up to link it now.

The 2m temperature forecasts for the Arctic basin over the next week show any large patches of sub-zero temperatures around the Siberian islands shrinking and dissipating, and the heat continuing in the Canadian archipelago. I expect quite a rapid shrinkage over the next week. Despite the current heavy ice over the Canad. arch. it looks odds on that the NW passage will open again this year. Look at the 10-day temp forecast:

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html

Parts of the NW territories and islands are, depressingly, warmer than most of the UK.

 

Tim S:

Parts of the NW territories and islands are, depressingly, warmer than most of the UK.

 

Yes, on the shore of the arctic ocean in northern canada temps got into the high twenties according to this:

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&date=2007-07-12_16:22&month=7&year=2007

Read to the end of that article where it mentions it.

rc1:

Tim S:

Parts of the NW territories and islands are, depressingly, warmer than most of the UK.

 

Yes, on the shore of the arctic ocean in northern canada temps got into the high twenties according to this:

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&date=2007-07-12_16:22&month=7&year=2007

Read to the end of that article where it mentions it.

It's not unheard of though. With continental air masses NWT gets very large temperature ranges with many parts of it being consistently warmer than here at least during the summer.

When they get warmer than average and the south of the UK get cooler than average conditions in summer I'd be surprise not to see it being warmer there. The mean maximum in Fort Smith in southern NWT (where I spent Christmas) is 24ºC at this time of the year comapred with 22.5 or so in London.

Even futher north in the likes of Tuktoyaktuk (great name eh? ) such high temperatures aren't as rare as you'd think (although it has been anomalously warm I think in the region of Sachs Harbour)

True Michael and I believe 100F has been recorded within the Arctic Circle in northern Sweden.

SWZ

There was a piece on N24 yesterday about some chap that swam in open water 'at the North Pole' for a distance of 1 KM, is that likely? I know there's only a limited number of stellite images of the pole but from what I've seen it looks fairly well iced up to me. I do wonder if the Beeb have been a bit loose with the term 'North Pole'.

No, he's been in the news a lot. A pretty incredible achievement, recognised by the Guiness Book of Records. 18+ minutes in water at -1.8C! We'd die very, very, quickly!

There is often open water at the North Pole these days. The cracks in the ice are not easily picked up on lower resolution Satellite photos. The real difficulty is in saying how much open water there is now, compared to years gone by. I suspect there is more, but that would be hard to verify.

SWZ