As usual please stay on topic

Not a bad run and it just like May 1995 when we had a very cold spell of 7C in here with same set-up for this Friday but not that cold.  Like the BH holiday weekend weather and this weekend and early next week are interesting to me due to cool nights to warm days.

Dryas - Around mid-30C for the average.

Just referring back to the loopy GFS predicting -4c on Sunday morning.....the MetO forecast for the Durham area is a much more realistic 4c:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ne/durham_forecast_weather.html

Still a chilly one though. I suspect this cooler shot isn't going to last all that long though, seems to be heading back to average/just above in the models, which is also noted in the 15 dayer outlook

'Temperatures will largely be around normal at the start of the period, but it should turn rather warm generally during next week.'

Updated: 1159 on Tue 13 May 2008

It'll be interesting to see what the ECM has to say tonight.

 Met/o 12z:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1441.gif

A changeable run. 

MattB:

Just referring back to the loopy GFS predicting -4c on Sunday morning.....the MetO forecast for the Durham area is a much more realistic 4c:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ne/durham_forecast_weather.html

Given the GFS output I'd say the +4 is as unrealistic as the -4. I suspect the reality may be in themiddle of the too.

If anything the ECM is coldest of the options tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

It remains settled until later in the run with northerly blocking evident throughout.

Michael:

Given the GFS output I'd say the +4 is as unrealistic as the -4. I suspect the reality may be in themiddle of the too.

If anything the ECM is coldest of the options tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

It remains settled until later in the run with northerly blocking evident throughout.

Look at the fetch of the air heading to Aberdeen on that chart

Thanks for the info, Jiries.

Younger Dryas:

Michael:

Given the GFS output I'd say the +4 is as unrealistic as the -4. I suspect the reality may be in themiddle of the too.

If anything the ECM is coldest of the options tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

It remains settled until later in the run with northerly blocking evident throughout.

Look at the fetch of the air heading to Aberdeen on that chart

Siberian blast

Michael:

Younger Dryas:

Michael:

Given the GFS output I'd say the +4 is as unrealistic as the -4. I suspect the reality may be in themiddle of the too.

If anything the ECM is coldest of the options tonight.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

It remains settled until later in the run with northerly blocking evident throughout.

Look at the fetch of the air heading to Aberdeen on that chart

Siberian blast

I bet Richard is going to really enjoy it - haar combined with cold polar air

despite the less than favourable output for the next week, there does appear to be a general propensity in the nwp FI for blocking to pop up in our vicinity. i'll stick with the optimism for the last third of the month with the atlantic trough hopefully repositioning itself far enough to our west to drag up air from somewhere warmish. 

Fun while it lasted

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

not great [though not cold as such] for the weekend and early next week but a decent chance of it turning warmer thereafter

For most its not going to be cold this weekend, just much cooler than of late. In fact temps should be around the seasonal average. My garden needs some rain and summer is still to come so I'm not fussed really. The far NE doesn't look very promising though.

Cold is of course a comparative term. A max of 8 degrees in mid winter would hardly be described as cold whereas in mid soummer it would be remarkably cold.

Likewise t850s of -5 in winter are more average to cool than cold, in mid-May they are cold:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png

The daytime maxes may just about make it to double figure up here, although that'll be no change from the last day or two anyway

The consistent theme remains northern blocking which is still very evident across all the models even if the specifics change.

Yes, still some interesting charts and continuing to look like 95, although the chances of a summer like that one must be very low in any one year, even given the recent warming! The weekend should be quite interesting, with the colder uppers.

ECMWF remains easterly throughout its 00z run:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1441.gif

A fresh feeling easterly rather than continentally based one, but sure I won't complain. though I almost beginning to miss the rain...

Tomorrow it's in the south and southeast and central parts of england Thursday, with some showery rain and drier slots, some heavy bursts are possible.  drier and cool further north in England, Scotland and N. Ireland on Thursday and some cool NE winds associated with building high pressure in the NE and West Central N. UK Thursday to Saturday will be pushing Troughs and Low Pressure NE away from the SE by Saturday and by Sunday the progress during the Friday to Sunday of more Troughs and Low Pressure should be moving across just to the West and NW of the UK, but a ridge of High pressure is likely to hold on over much of the UK from Saturday to about Tuesday.

So I can see GFS output wildly confusing as we see the ECMWF and UKMO and the Bracknell fax charts seeing more light on our weather as we see changes over in the NW and Central North Atlantic during the T48 to T108 hr time frame with Low Pressure and Troughs succeeding their movement East and NE.

The forecast with UKMO and ECMWF to T144 is for Monday/ Tuesday I am clear in my wise words.

It is that large Greenland and UK high pressure and the Troughing with Low Pressure in NE Europe corner continuing to bring to NE Europe some much colder and wintry weather there, throughout from now to Tuesday.

Stalling Troughs and Low Pressure that does not be able to affect the UK, for the Monday and Tuesday!!!.

Have a very lovely day to all whom weather forecasts make a difference in your day to day activities or festivities.