May was great but it's the past 10 or so days that haven't been very good - about 5 sunless days at Leeming for example.

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Well the 0z GFS takes us off in another direction with it looking much better than previous runs. Is this a new trend or an outlier? Time will tell, but it makes much more pleasant viewing in any case until deep FI.

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Absolutely. It makes great viewing this morning. Everything crossed that it’s on to something! 

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The op has been a wet outlier on most recent runs so this may just be the ensemble trend reasserting itself. What had worried me was that ECM was going the same way, but this morning it too is better.

The cold plunge at the end of this morning’s GFS is also an outlier, indeed the op is still on the cool side of the pack. Some proper scorchers in there as well as a few horror shows lest we get too optimistic.

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Ecm ends in a lovely note. Azores high builds in strongly.  This is what the met seems to be suggesting is the form horse. I'd expect the first significant Spanish plume soon after as well. Heatwave potential to end June is growing this morning.

 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 

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Definitely a marked trend now for high pressure to dominate, but in a different position compared to recently. Gone is the northern blocking and in its place a strengthened Azores high ridging and building into central Europe. This is great news for the south and east where the influence of the North Sea have cooled things down.

If this verifies we will have a very interesting CET figure for June.

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For the south? It's been splended down in the south over recent weeks, and very warm (borderline hot) at times to. Lots of sunshine and humidity, storms... perfect early summer weather. The south has done well!

As far as the outlook is concerned, I would imagine that for here, a lot will depend on how close we are to that ridging from the Azores. If that area of high pressure is too far to the south, there is a danger that any decent weather could end up just being a south of England thing only whilst the northern half of the UK goes into a more unsettled, zonal and Atlantic driven regime (although even at that, I'm sure that there are parts of Scotland such as Aberdeen where the gardens could probably do with a bit of welcome rainfall as a result of it having been so dry there for so long).

If on the other hand, the high pressure is close enough to us to confine any wet weather to the far north and west of Scotland, then it becomes a different story because that would probably then leave us in quite a warm SW or SSW airflow. Under those conditions as well with the Fohn Effect, it then becomes possible for places such as here in Edinburgh, and other parts of the east coast to see temperatures reach the upper 20s even if it is really windy at the time and for here in Edinburgh, that is usually how we get our highest temperatures. That in turn, would result in it not being so bad after all.

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Suppose it depends on where you live as I've seen countless people across the south complaining about the weather. Also, looking at some weather stations in Kent i.e Manston, it looks like it hasn't been too sunny there, especially not by their usual standards. Ditto parts of the south west - Filton Airport for example has had 6 completely sunless days in the past 2 weeks (3 more with less than 1 hour), with no highs above 20C for 7 days.

Compared to the North West, the south hasn't done very well at all, not in terms of sunshine at least.

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Agreed. Counties bordering the east coast have endured completely different conditions compared to the southernmost parts of England. Even in Cambridge which is a good distance from the east coast we have had days of continuous gloom. I suppose in my earlier comment I should have said the eastern counties and south east such as Kent 

 

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The North Sea gloom has actually managed to spread all the way to places like Gloucestershire, simply because there are no major geographical features preventing it from doing so.

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However manston is southeast, and I suspect a lot of those in the 'south' are probably located in the southeast. From Cornwall to East Sussex, and south of the M4 it has been good. 

That looks very nice indeed. A good sign for the summer as a whole.

 

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Well, fairly good. I've had to turn on the gas-heated hot water 2 or 3 times, whereas I'd expect the solar panels to take care of it from May to October. and that '2 or 3 times' corresponds to twice that number of days, as one good sunny day generates enough hot water for 48 hours.

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Agreed.

The MetO updates over recent days have been of the view that the more unsettled spell forecast to commence around the middle of next week looks likely to be a relatively brief one, and the FI section of some of the GFS op runs in the past few days has shown HP building back in again quite strongly in the late part of June. Let's hope they are proved to be correct.

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Apart from the odd cloudier and thundery day its been ok here in the extreme SE too. Average daytime temps of around 20-21c with just a handful of wet days in the four of five weeks. Perhaps not the wall to wall sunshine of further north and west but very very good so far.

A definite shift to a warmer and more settled spell is on the cards from mid month now by the looks of things, especially the south and little evidence to suggest the dreaded European Monsoon this year. Even the north looks generally ok with passing weak fronts in a westerly flow.

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No real sign of anything considerbly unsettled showing up on the models this afternoon. It seems they've really turned away from the "Return of the Westerlies" that they were pushing for a few days ago. Apart from the odd thundery outbreak, this could turn out to be an extremely dry June for some areas. Possibly a very warm one too?

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Latest GFS6z offering continues the theme of strong Azores high ridging to central Europe. Gone is the horror show in deep FI to be replaced with the familiar theme of northern blocking. Either way there is no marked return of the Atlantic, even for northern areas. Interesting times.

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12z leaking out now. It’s around these pattern change moments that I am most on tenterhooks. Up to 150z quite similar to the last 2.

Early next week is looking quite poor for the far SE and Kent - lots of rain and cloud as a small feature sits over us. The pattern lingers until Wed and then seems to move away and the Easterly fetch finally goes too.

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Away from the GFS, UKMO and GEM brings in the Atlantic influence by the middle of next week onwards, with stronger winds and rain for many. More runs, as ever.

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The GEM op at least is a cool outlier on the ensembles. Look at P02.

Although P13 does have something of the Hammer Horror about it. Nice charts for this December.

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Still good on ECM.

Bit of a meaty low to the north though.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 

 

 

 

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I'll take the GFS 18z run please. Fantastic!

The ‘true’ South?

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Sadly this morning’s runs are back to transient ridges and troughs, with a few cold plunges. GFS remains the best in both op and ens. The other 3 not so great.

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