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Nick Gilly
30 June 2018 06:57:37
Yes the 00z GFS is looking decidedly dodgy after around July 7th. The 18z GFS though was a real sight to behold. It showed high pressure well and truly in charge for the entire run.
johncs2016
30 June 2018 07:01:31
I expect though, that it won't be long before those more unsettled runs come back into line and go back to showing high pressure in charge.

That after all, has been the way of it this summer so far.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
golfingmad
30 June 2018 07:19:16

I expect though, that it won't be long before those more unsettled runs come back into line and go back to showing high pressure in charge.

That after all, has been the way of it this summer so far.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Certainly ECM0z is having nothing of it, with high pressure resurgent later next week. 


GFS keeps on chopping and changing in the outlook, sometimes high pressure dominating but again the latest run displacing high pressure in the worst possible way.


Is GFS nervous and neurotic or is it onto something?


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Ally Pally Snowman
30 June 2018 08:00:12

ECM and UKMO setting us up for something akin to 1976 GFS goes off on one but is a unsettled outlier when compared to its ensembles.  We are on the brink of something very special indeed not quite there yet though.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2018 09:09:34
It’s the Ryder cup of weather models this morning. Let’s hope the Yanks are in poor form. Even their Canadian neighbours are on the U.K./Euro side.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Hungry Tiger
30 June 2018 09:57:55

I'll settle for this.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


speckledjim
30 June 2018 10:22:09
Fingers crossed ECM comes off and this glorious weather continues
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
golfingmad
30 June 2018 12:11:07

So GFS06z comes back into line and follows more or less UKMO and ECM. Solid agreement now for a remarkable start to July, if this holds we really are on the cusp of something special.


 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
White Meadows
30 June 2018 13:14:09


I'll settle for this.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png



Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

 


Those temps in the med, Spain and the Balearics particularly look utterly swealtering. There will surely be cases of heat stroke down there. 

Brian Gaze
30 June 2018 16:43:51


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
golfingmad
30 June 2018 16:56:14




Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Certainly GFS12z at T240 is a thing of beauty. Doesn't really get better than that. Let's hope the graveyard shift responsible for the earlier midnight run does not pop up again. 


Not wishing to get carried away, but if this is the persistent theme through July we are staring historic weather in the face.


 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
The Beast from the East
30 June 2018 17:18:03

sickening stuff


at least we've had a cool breeze here, but some of these charts look horrible for sleeping in


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Polar Low
30 June 2018 17:22:51

Aye Beast but are you ever happy?



sickening stuff


at least we've had a cool breeze here, but some of these charts look horrible for sleeping in


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

The Beast from the East
30 June 2018 17:26:04


Aye Beast but are you ever happy?


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Never I'm Alf Garnett in disguise


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Polar Low
30 June 2018 17:29:59

Certainly a superb front loaded summer Brian these takes us out to mid July super stuff then mean has another AZ pushing in 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0


 


quote=Brian Gaze;1012527]




picturesareme
30 June 2018 17:47:14

this summer has still to match 2013.. yet... So far more 2014 like 

Sevendust
30 June 2018 18:28:54


this summer has still to match 2013.. yet... So far more 2014 like 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Really? I think the temperature profiles are much better so far.  The next tipping point will be mid-July. Up to then we will probably be doing well

johncs2016
30 June 2018 18:44:38


 


Really? I think the temperature profiles are much better so far.  The next tipping point will be mid-July. Up to then we will probably be doing well


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


I would say that in this part of the world though, this month HAS been more like July 2014 than the summer of 2013. Back in July 2014 we had high pressure centred to our north which brought in a lot of easterly winds which caused the mornings to start off on a dull note. Those cloudy starts to each day extended quite far inland as well as I can remember from my period down in Hawick at that time, where the mornings would even start of dull there as a result.


By the afternoon, the Sun would break through and it would be really hot inland, whilst it continued to be a lot cooler here on the east coast even after the Sun came out due to those easterly winds. That is no different from what we are seeing just now in this part oft of the world. In the summer of 2013, the high pressure was centred more to either the south or SW of here at lot of the times but was close enough to still keep the jet stream well to the north of us.


This resulted in it not necessarily being all that sunny here all the time since we are under the influence of an Atlantic air mass. However, those winds were coming from the SW a lot of the time so that rather than getting the coolest weather as we are just not and did in July 2014, the east coast of Scotland was actually the hottest part of Sun with temperatures getting into the upper 20s C here on a more regular basis due to the Fohn Effect, even though it was often fairly windy at times.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2018 19:27:15


this summer has still to match 2013.. yet... So far more 2014 like 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


2013 was perfect for your location though: Warm North Westerlies. It was hotter in London in 2013 too, but this summer feels better because it’s kasted longer already, and it’s nayionwide. Unlike some others I do prefer warm weather that’s happening everywhere than pure SE affairs.


The issue with this summer for me has been the wet and cool weather to our South across the channel.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
LeedsLad123
30 June 2018 19:33:51
The issue for me has been the persistent easterlies that just won't stop. Would be nice to get high pressure just slap bang over the UK.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
30 June 2018 19:45:18
As ever some places are missing out. However tonight's GEFS hint at the possibility of record breaking temps mid July. Hints!!!
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
johncs2016
30 June 2018 19:47:56

The issue for me has been the persistent easterlies that just won't stop. Would be nice to get high pressure just slap bang over the UK.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


I agree, and this just makes me wonder why on Earth, we can't get those persistent easterlies during the winter when we are looking for them.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
xioni2
30 June 2018 19:56:35

As ever some places are missing out. However tonight's GEFS hint at the possibility of record breaking temps mid July. Hints!!!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I think both the very hot runs and the breakdown runs will probably fail to verify and models will keep underestimating pressure north of the UK at long leads.


Safest bet is to go with persistence of warm, dry and sunny weather (overall and for most).


 


 

Hungry Tiger
30 June 2018 20:03:15


sickening stuff


at least we've had a cool breeze here, but some of these charts look horrible for sleeping in


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


get yourself an aircoditioner beast.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
30 June 2018 20:03:53

Can't remember the last time I saw charts like this in summer.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


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