Thanks. I think someone had told me that before but I forgot.

It says something about the institutional complacency of the Met Office (I did a tour last month and they were presenting climate change slides from 2006) that they don’t treat their readers like grown ups and discuss the sources and uncertainties of their data.

EC15 12z update. potential  'breakdown' increasingly under threat post day 10. 

GFS 18z update: worrying consistency in showing a pattern change around mid month, just in time for school holidays. Hoping it’s just GFS.

The signal is there again on the 00z runs this morning but given the weather in recent weeks and the timescale I’m not sure if it is too much of a worry currently.

Many school kids will probably have plenty of great weather in the first two or three weeks where the summer holidays have already started.

You would expect scatter at that range and that's what the GEFS shows as it often does.

Logically it will become cooler and unsettled at some point and mid-July remains a tipping point for me and bang in line with the kids breaking up as happened last year.

Can we avoid the law of sod? More runs needed ;)

Well with most NI and Scottish schools already on holiday Mc/O’Sod’s Law is obviously on holiday too. You’re right though about the ten day issue. A breakdown at about ten days has been hinted at across some models and ensembles for days or weeks now and rarely gets closer. Perhaps this time it may be the same? Hopefully the ECM 00z will keep it settled out to 240hr.

(Edit: Basically what Mr Moomin has just said )

I’m sick of hearing about the school holidays! Wish I was off for six weeks but for me it means sweet FA! 😂😂

In all seriousness the signs of a breakdown are still way, way too far ahead to consider as a real possibility yet. Take the GEFS mean at T+192 for example. When you get real signs of troughing here and at T+168, that’s when you can have more confidence in a real change. 

The mean at T+192 shows no change. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_192_1.png

 These things come in threes apparently. What next? Peace in the Climate or UiA forum? 

On the model output theme the continuing lack of rainfall up here is quite notable on the 00z GEFS set http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

I am wondering if UK is now the driest place in Europe?  That low over Iberia kept giving lot of storms in your house area in France and parts of Spain.  I remember in 1995 UK was the driest place and many Europeans went there to visit.  Rain spikes correcting down this week then clear dry flat lined to 13th July as it pushed forward.  Today the coolest day but at least a break before the heat return tomorrow and get hotter as it goes.

no need to wine about it 😉 

As I recall, there were a few GFS and one or two ECM op runs during Monday and Tuesday of last week which showed a thundery area of low pressure developing over northern France and then pushing northwards over the UK at the start of this week. However, by last Wednesday those models had largely dropped the idea of that happening and indicated that HP would remain largely in control of the UK's weather this week.

On current form, I think that any model solutions for more than a week ahead are very much open to question until we are much nearer the timeframe concerned.

I think Denmark is drier - they are really having problems with their agriculture now as a result of weeks without any meaningful rain (I mean since April).

The whole North Sea and Baltic region looks completely desiccated on the soil moisture maps.

[quote=David M Porter;1013505]

As I recall, there were a few GFS and one or two ECM op runs during Monday and Tuesday of last week which showed a thundery area of low pressure developing over northern France and then pushing northwards over the UK at the start of this week. However, by last Wednesday those models had largely dropped the idea of that happening and indicated that HP would remain largely in control of the UK's weather this week.

On current form, I think that any model solutions for more than a week ahead are very much open to question until we are much nearer the timeframe concerned.

[/quote

 Twas ever thus it seems, summer or winter, after years of following this forum. I do recall a saying that if high pressure has been present for 3 days then it will remain so for at least 7, which seems on current output to be accurate.

Nice and so it carries on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

[quote=White Meadows;1013496]

no need to wine about it 😉 

Sounds like sour grapes to me......I'll get my coat 😖 ⏩

The GFs6z run changes the ballgame in the far reaches once again. Gone is the Atlantic trough and in its place is high pressure both to the NE and SW, and with the UK in the middle of this high pressure axis. 

GFS keeps on playing with the idea of a breakdown like this, only to drop the idea after one run. This breakdown always seems to appear in the midnight run. I am therefore becoming increasingly convinced that those at GFS working on the 0Z run are just playing the default position that blocking scenarios won't last and must end.

Either that, or some of them are smoking those funny cigarettes