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Hungry Tiger
04 July 2018 19:38:06

Now we're talking serious now.


Meaty ridging from the wonderful Azores High.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
04 July 2018 19:44:03

.


Great.


It is not raining. But the forecast and current, recent and forecast weather is looking confidently very sunny and warm, even hot at times.


This summer the boundary between comfortable and uncomfortable hotness, starts at the 27 degrees C mark.


Last 2 weeks, this week and next week, more of what we are used to- across much of the UK, though NW N and NE less warm for a few days this week.


.


I am not watching and been not watching this thread since a long time.


But still!!.


Edit.. Drum, roll on the BB's hmm. 28-30 degrees could be reached this Weekend and first half of next week....


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.Β 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
White Meadows
04 July 2018 19:53:06


[quote=White Meadows;1013496]


 


no need to wine about it πŸ˜‰ 


 


Sounds like sour grapes to me......I'll get my coat πŸ˜– ⏩


Originally Posted by: marco 79 

Time to put a cork in it!

White Meadows
04 July 2018 19:59:27
Ensembles are definitely sniffing something out like a drug-hound at a Colombian airport.
The trend has stuck for the past 2-3 days for potential extreme uppers around 13-15th
Things adjust somewhat from run to run but the general picture looks promising, if you like heat or even extreme heat.
Solar Cycles
04 July 2018 20:15:16

Ensembles are definitely sniffing something out like a drug-hound at a Colombian airport.
The trend has stuck for the past 2-3 days for potential extreme uppers around 13-15th
Things adjust somewhat from run to run but the general picture looks promising, if you like heat or even extreme heat.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ I like that analogy.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
Hungry Tiger
05 July 2018 08:59:05


 



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Bolty
05 July 2018 09:29:19

ECMWF 0z showing no major heat, but keeping us pleasantly warm, dry and sunny right up to day 10. No sign of any tedious Atlantic junk showing up at all either.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Rob K
05 July 2018 10:45:19

GFS also seems to have backed off from the plume at the end of next week. A slow decline to fresher and wetter weather from the west instead. Boring!

Starting to look as though this "extended heatwave" will actually just fizzle out with a whimper by next weekend.


 


The extended 06Z GFS is horrible, with a trough getting stuck over the UK and the dreaded height rises over Greenland. School holiday time...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
05 July 2018 11:06:00


GFS also seems to have backed off from the plume at the end of next week. A slow decline to fresher and wetter weather from the west instead. Boring!

Starting to look as though this "extended heatwave" will actually just fizzle out with a whimper by next weekend.


 


The extended 06Z GFS is horrible, with a trough getting stuck over the UK and the dreaded height rises over Greenland. School holiday time...


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Swings and roundabouts at the moment Rob. Not concerned yet.  ECM still looks great for the full ten days.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Rob K
05 July 2018 11:09:45


Swings and roundabouts at the moment Rob. Not concerned yet.  ECM still looks great for the full ten days.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes, let's hope GFS is still too keen to break down the blocking.The 240 hour GFS chart for tomorrow showed a full-blown Atlantic low moving in, and look where that went.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome
Jiries
05 July 2018 11:11:46


Swings and roundabouts at the moment Rob. Not concerned yet.  ECM still looks great for the full ten days.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


GFS wanted this from 1st July and look what happened now so it kept pushing back.   

Joe Bloggs
05 July 2018 12:08:14

I’m surprised there’s so much interest in operational runs way out into lala land. Totally pointless. 


That said, the 06z GEFS are picking up a stronger rainfall signal from approx 15th July, albeit with above average temperatures. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSENS06_52_0_201.png


 


It wouldn’t be totally surprising if the weather does change as we head towards mid month - after all this has been exceptionally good spell of weather and the longer it goes on, the more exceptional and unlikely it becomes. 


It’s worth noting that the EPS mean looks generally settled right out to T+240. Still way too early to be fully convinced of a change. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Rob K
05 July 2018 12:19:43

GFS has been modelling a very intense and fairly localised deluge across a swathe of central France for days now, and it seems the other global models are now on board - up to 70-90mm falling in the space of a few hours overnight tonight into Thursday over the Morvan and the Burgundy hills.

That’ll almost certainly be accompanied by hail I’d expect. Of recent years are anything to go by we could see quite a few vineyards decimated. Not as bad as hail in late August, but still not great.

Will probably mean the cellar of my house gets flooded, again.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


Off topic but this is from Charente yesterday 


 


https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1014635339925860358


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
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  • Advanced Member
05 July 2018 12:20:14
There is some consistency in the GFS ensembles over the last few runs and it’s best shown in the SLP curve. I follow the ENS for London and Cluny (half way down France). For most of the last 2 months the long term mean pressure was showing as higher in London than Cluny. Now it’s consistently forecast higher in Cluny than London. That means more zonal flow.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
picturesareme
05 July 2018 12:30:43
I don't need scientific data to say with certainty that the heatwave will be over come the week commencing next Friday. My dearest granny is coming down from the northeast, and as always no matter how the weather has been prior or after her returning home when she is here average is the best we will get. πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜πŸ˜†πŸ˜‰
Caz
  • Caz
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05 July 2018 12:59:42

I don't need scientific data to say with certainty that the heatwave will be over come the week commencing next Friday. My dearest granny is coming down from the northeast, and as always no matter how the weather has been prior or after her returning home when she is here average is the best we will get. πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜πŸ˜†πŸ˜‰

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Don’t write it off just yet!  


I was convinced it would break up just as my son and his girlfriend were going camping at Silverstone and ten days ago the models suggested it would.  Well, they went yesterday and it hasn’t yet!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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picturesareme
05 July 2018 13:16:50


Don’t write it off just yet!  


I was convinced it would break up just as my son and his girlfriend were going camping at Silverstone and ten days ago the models suggested it would.  Well, they went yesterday and it hasn’t yet!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


It's every time she visits in the summer the weather always changes upon her arrival. Don't get me wrong it still gets into the mid 20's sometimes but never hot or hot & humid whilst she is here.


I guess though it's a good thing as Geordies don't handle heat very well πŸ˜‰

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
05 July 2018 13:26:59


It's every time she visits in the summer the weather always changes upon her arrival. Don't get me wrong it still gets into the mid 20's sometimes but never hot or hot & humid whilst she is here.


I guess though it's a good thing as Geordies don't handle heat very well πŸ˜‰


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

 Elderly people don’t handle it so well either!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Saint Snow
05 July 2018 13:56:35


 Elderly people don’t handle it so well either!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


 


So elderly Geordies are doubly-affected?


 


 



Martin
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picturesareme
05 July 2018 14:06:07


 


 


So elderly Geordies are doubly-affected?


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


😁

Brian Gaze
05 July 2018 16:57:43
GFS in recent days has overcooked the shower risk. I remember seeing a discussion a few days ago about how much rain there would be this week. ICON and Arpege were both much nearer the mark than GFS. Having said that I've been in St Mawes, Cornwall this week and yesterday it was cool, quite windy and very wet. Didn't feel like the UK was enjoying the best start to summer since 1976.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
05 July 2018 18:16:42
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw= 

It’s quite a consistent theme now and the last few ECM op runs seem to be showing similar: high pressure retreating into the mid Atlantic and turning the mean flow Northwesterly. Sometimes with heights rising over Greenland, sometimes not.

Could this be the well established mid July switch we’ve seen in so many recent years?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=GEM&var=2&time=312&run=12&lid=P02&h=0&tr=6 

It has stood firm a few times earlier in the season where GFS showed a breakdown, although in the last few times it was on the same side as ECM.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gray-Wolf
05 July 2018 18:31:49

I just assume this type of stagnant block is not something the models look for and so seek to return us to the past 'average'?


It won't rub!


This summer is doing its own thang


 


 


 


 


 


 


or maybe the early noughties warnings were sound?...... what will us opening a record number of vineyards last year and now all needing Mediterranean plants this year ................


Koyaanisqatsi
ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
05 July 2018 19:04:29
ECM 12z is finely balanced. The mid Atlantic ridging trend is there but the jet stream never dives too far South, at least up to 240z
Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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