Do you have a crystal ball or something?

Indeed. We had two thunderstorms here in mid-July 1995, the first of which was a particularly lively storm for this part of the world although it didn't last that long. After those we had a week to ten days of less good weather, but then the heat and sun returned during the final few days of July and set us up for a glorious August.

It just isn't realistic given the highly variable nature of the British climate to expect all 92 days of a summer season to be completely dry and sunny. I wasn't around in 1976 but I'm fairly sure it had the odd not so good day at times too, just like 1995 did.

Apparently a consistent run of above average temperatures, an almost unparralled in recent history number of 14 hour sunny days and at absolute worst average rainfall equals a bad summer in NE Scotland these days. Having lived through abominations like 1985 and 1993 I'll take it with a pinch of salt. My parents live in Aberdeen and have been telling me it's been pretty glorious up there most of the time. 

Actually looks pretty representative of the mean. There is now a pronounced “double dip” next week with fairly tight clustering, so I think GFS has pretty much hot to grips with it. The first half of the week looks a fair bit cooler than of late.  It then looks like high pressure will build over the UK but there is a wide variation in temps depending on the orientation. Towards the end of the run the trend seems to be for HP to pull away to the west and bring cooler air in from the north. 

One thing I will say is that the 2m temp ensembles suggest it is pretty unlikely that next week will beat today and tomorrow. 

Certainly a very wet and cool weekend to come for many, and  then it is a struggle for the models to rebuild the High back in with any warmer days restricted to the South at the end of next week - I cautioned yesterday about the idea that the High would build over the UK.

UKMO shows the cooler air is still in place over the UK on Wednesday (August 1).

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&carte=1007&ech=144&archive=0

Ridging is already building though and it looks like the warmer air would soon flood back in.

i certainly wouldn’t say “it’s a struggle for the models to build the high back in” when for example the GEFS mean has the high pressure centred virtually smack over the UK by T192.

However it is certainly the case that next week is looking considerably less hot than it was a few days ago. There is still a decent chance of another notable hot spell though.  

Sorry ian but that is utter rubbish and you know it.

The GFS was right about the system for Sunday - when the UKMO was saying largely dry away from the NW up until yesterday - now the GFS has flipped considerably both in terms of OP and ensembles WRT to late next week and going forward.

00Z ensembles. Judge for yourself.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=370&y=4&ext=1&run=0&runpara=0&type=0

Ian is exaggerating a little as is his wont but you can’t deny there has been quite a shift in the last 12 hours.

ECM is rolling out so let’s see if that gives any more clues. 

The model output I've looked at looks a little more mobile. The main area of high pressure has been in the west Atlantic for weeks, it could be the ridge that has dominated our weather is budging somewhat.

However, we're here yet to see a drop of rain from any of the systems you're expecting to deluge us, so your crowing is 'somewhat' premature. Still, whatever floats your boat I guess - most of us are used to your 'provocative' style...

Yes indeed - the ECM ensembles had been showing a marked cooling (from current temperatures), persisting into next week, for some time now. They've also been bullish on a fair bit of rain on Friday down here and for areas further north and west, a wet few days (Friday-Sunday).

The ensembles continue to point to an anticyclonic start to August but those expecting high temperatures, at least to start the month, will be disappointed I feel - it's not until next Friday, for example, that the chance of a 30C high reaches as high as 1-in-10 for southern England.

TBH, I can't see many people complaining. Temperatures a few degrees above average are still likely for much of England from midweek onwards and the risk of rain subsides markedly as the week goes on, at least for much of England.

ECM coming out and HP considerably further South with the PFJ across Northern areas by day 8.

Yes the models have removed the idea of pressure building over the UK linked up to Scandinavia - a trough has replaced the higher heights over Scandi and we look to be back in a conventional Azores ridge/Atlantic trough set-up by next weekend. A big shift over the last 12 hours.

He's been waiting for a chance to piss on everyone's chips since February  - notice how he only becomes active if the models start showing what most of us don't want. He has been largely absent during this good spell of weather. Just a typical troll.

His posts merely show that he can’t read charts properly. He’s only embarrassing himself - let him get on with it!

Lets be honest. If today and tomorrow see's the peak of the heat followed by a cool off to something more traditional for August then there should be absolutely no complaints.

Its been exceptional. A bit like the world cup recently its united people. Its been a feel good summer but like everything it has to end at some time.

A double dip at the weekend and early next week before a re-build in pressure from mid week seems likely. Thereafter its anyones guess but for me there is enough evidence across the NWP to suggest a relocation of HP to our west. This would result in cooler nights and fresher days. It would also see off any challenge to eclipse 1976 also.

I expected this weekend to be cooler and wetter than it is going to turn out in Manchester. Met Office have highs around the average and not much precipitation in the forecast.

Next week ensembles build high pressure back strongly to around the 1025mb level e.g. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=255&y=87&run=0&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

After that it is a little uncertain!

That fine as long the HP move west then it keep us dry, sunny and fresh like we had in June.  I think it will be a relief for Scandi to see it cooler and less forest fires.

In the shorter term the issue will be the amount of rain for Central and Western areas particular on Sunday - I would expect warnings to be issued today. 

I think it will leave a sour taste in the mouth for the excellent weather to break down just as most of us are planning our holidays - and not for the first time in recent years either. 15 years since the last hot August - how much longer can it go?

Personally, I think it is a shame the really big positive temperature anomalies started in May - we could have been looking at a record breaking summer if everything had been pushed back a month.

If everyone just completely ignores the winder uppers then they won't wind up.

Hoping the weather can stick with us a bit longer as it can anasily feel quite autumnal up here in August. It's still all to play for though and what is being shown for the end of next week now will be different for better or for worse by the time it arrives.

I remember enjoying 1995 more because I was a kid and there wasn't really any internet to make you worry. You just watched the weather on BBC, thought oh it will rain over the weekend but will be nice next week again and that was it.