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Jiries
27 August 2018 08:27:39

This morning’s ensembles (both GEM and GFS) are very warm and dry indeed. ECM is very dry. Interesting prospects for early September.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Yes very glad to see some proper settled spell which was well over due for one since early August and like it nationwide as well.  At least the ensembles stop moving forward and it coming closer now so 1st September mark the warm period.  

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
27 August 2018 12:35:18
For those interested (roughly 2 people it seems) the GFS 06z ENS is warmer and drier than the 00z. Op is cooler though.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gusty
27 August 2018 12:57:55

For those interested (roughly 2 people it seems) the GFS 06z ENS is warmer and drier than the 00z. Op is cooler though.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Any extension of summer weather into September (and October) is welcomed by me. Good trends ! 

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Gavin P
27 August 2018 14:53:53

I don't mind a bit of warm/dry weather in September but I hope it doesn't go on for weeks and weeks as I'll be struggling for things to talk about in the vids.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
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marco 79
27 August 2018 16:54:40

[quote=Gavin P;1030380]


I don't mind a bit of warm/dry weather in September but I hope it doesn't go on for weeks and weeks as I'll be struggling for things to talk about in the vids.


 


 


Think for the next ten days Gav you may be doing just that....looks increasingly dry and fairly warm....Midlands South wards 21-25c.....further North 19-23c....Scotland 16-20c....(looking at the 06z GEFS)

Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Phil 2804
27 August 2018 17:05:46


I have no clear recollection of snow falling to low ground in October in my neck of the woods in time in the past, but we have had some pretty chilly days for sure especially late on in the month. October 2008 for example, which ties in with the very early snowfalls that some aread in the south saw then which Brian mentioned above.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


Both of the last two October's have seen snow in Aberdeen. I think 2012 did too.


As for September snow my Dad definitely recalls snow during one of the harvests of his childhood so must've been some point in the 50s. 

Ally Pally Snowman
27 August 2018 17:07:55

High Pressure looks to be taking control in about 3 days . It's been remarkably well modelled as GFS first picked up the HP signal at about  300h. Give or take a couple of days its been right on time. Shows just how good the models can be these days . 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
cultman1
27 August 2018 18:00:55
BBC radio 4 weather forecast this evening forecasted very warm conditions for next week
richardabdn
27 August 2018 18:01:00


 


 


Both of the last two October's have seen snow in Aberdeen. I think 2012 did too.


As for September snow my Dad definitely recalls snow during one of the harvests of his childhood so must've been some point in the 50s. 


Originally Posted by: Phil 2804 


No snow in the last two Octobers here both of which were composed of the cloudy, mild crud that has prevailed in October this century. Last year especially was hideous.


2008, 2010 and 2012 all had snow lying but I haven't even so much as recorded a frost since and only 11 single figure maxes in the past five Octobers compared to 13 during October 2012 alone. 8 of the 11 single figure maxes I recorded were between 9.4C and 9.9C with only the max of 6.3C on 30th October last year below 8C. Cold in October is certainly long overdue.


Sleet fell on 29th September 1954 and the snow we had at the beginning of October 1994 was the earliest wintry precipitation since then.

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Brian Gaze
27 August 2018 18:20:00

Closing this thread in 5 mins.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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