All of January is utter crud on that run, though!

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Hope James Madden doesn't see that or the five months of blistering conditions, mini ice age and 20 feet of snow on Christmas day Daily Express headlines will be out tomorrow 

Ties in with my winter fore....... guess. 

LOL! Thanks Neil that's very kind! 

You OK my friend? 

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Finally found a forecast that isn't just about N. America.

Pause this at 1:05: - Don't you just love that forecast? - Good for those in the SW! 🙂 JFF: Butt ALL WINTER MONTHS show below average temperatures with snow/precipitation to the south with HP to the north esp in January 2019 - shows an extensive area of the northern blocking/scandi HP. - Is this indicative of northern Blocking? ALl in veryt low resolution and it's all experimental and just for fun - what models do they use?

https://youtu.be/MJW40NJSS3I

It's the winter of true solar minimum!! 

What do you think all?

 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJW40NJSS3I

 

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01:06 - Look what's being forecast right over Devon, Cornwall & Somerset!? :P

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJW40NJSS3I

 

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Net Weather is going for a colder than average November:

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/seasonal

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Conclusions

Taking the evidence together as a whole, it looks probable that September will be more anticyclonic than usual over the British Isles, with a stronger than usual Icelandic low, which means that the north and west of Scotland will be more prone to bouts of wet and windy weather but for most of the UK a warmer and drier than average September is likely. For October the signals are weak but there is a general theme of pressure being above normal across central and northern Europe, with southerly winds slightly more frequent than normal over the British Isles. For November there is a consistent signal for cyclonic and fairly cold weather, with a region of above average pressure extending from the eastern North Atlantic to southern Greenland, suggesting that northerly and north-westerly winds will blow more frequently than usual for the third November in a row. The persistent and strong easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation may also promote cold blasts, most likely from the north, during mid to late November.

Temperatures

Temperatures for the autumn of 2018 are expected to be above the 1981-2010 average for England, Wales and Scotland (about 80% chance) but not exceptionally so, with positive anomalies of about 0.5C most likely. For Northern Ireland, near average temperatures is the most likely outcome, thanks to the proximity of the cold anomaly in the North Atlantic.

Both September and October are most likely to be warmer than average, albeit not exceptionally so, mainly due to frequent anticyclonic weather in September and southerly winds blowing more frequently than average in October. September is 80% likely to be warmer than average, October about 60-70% likely to be warm.

November is looking about 60-70% likely to be colder than normal, with frequent northerly and north-westerly winds. The negative temperature anomaly will probably be largest over Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, severe cold outbreaks look unlikely, because of a high likelihood that the Arctic will be exceptionally warm, in view of the fact that most recent Novembers have been unusually warm in the Arctic and so was the analogous November of 1996.

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That's fine, we know the CFS 9-monther is only accurate out to around 4 months.

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I don't know whether this is of any use in predicting the 18/19 winter, but the NAO for the period Apr-Aug this year was easily the most positive on record. The only other years in the record starting 1950 to have +NAO in all five of these months were 1959, 1992 & 2013. In addition, summers that I have looked at with good June & July followed by unexceptional or forgettable Augusts seem to have a tendency to be followed by mild winters.
Looking at a couple of years with good summers but very different to this year [ie not analogue years], 1976 & 1995 had very blocked Augusts and also they had wet Septembers.
If Sept 2018 turns out to be an anticyclonic westerly type, and Oct 2018 is unexceptional then my prediction will be for a milder than average winter. An October with strongly positive AO or NAO would weight the prediction towards colder, even if that seems counter intuitive..
Pattern matching is of course only one indicator

December for the likes of me. 😍

Small correction there Martin 😉

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Winter's over 

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Don't burst my dream, mate!

 

 

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Have looked at data on cold/blocked winters around solar minimum give.

If we take the year of the solar minimum and the two years preceding and two years following this gives us five years to look at for each solar minimum A cold winter is counted if DJF  CET is 3.5 and below.

This analysis gives  the following results.

Solar minimum 1955 - cold winters 55,56

Solar minimum 1964  -cold winters 62,63,64,65.

Solar minimum 1977 -cold winters  77,79

Solar minimum 1986  -cold winters 85,86.87

Solar minimum  1997-cold winters  96

Solar minimum  2009 -cold  winters 09,10,11

Solar minimum  2020?

Can I ask if one of the Mods could make the "Winter 18/19 Discussion and Prognosis" thread into a sticky.It covers roughly a three month period from September to December.

Thanks

 

 

roger 63

Given how warm the Med is I think higher than average possibility of a cold winter.

Analysing the above  cold winters shows that there were four pre solar minima winter,five on the solar minima,and five post solar minima.

Probability is one of the least understood areas of mathematics. The fact is, it is always dependent on time. Even the 1:6 alleged probability of rolling a 6 on a die is exposed when one considers the pre-destined nature of the subtleties of the roller's hand movements. And once the six is rolled, the fact is, the chance that it was going to be rolled is 100%.

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If averages mean anything, I’d say a very mild winter is due. Perhaps record breakingly so.
I think Oct-Nov will start rather benign and uneventful before lashing rain & gales for much of December leading to a very mild Jan-Feb period with very few or no frosts recorded in the south throughout.

You mean a normal winter.😂😂

Entirely speculative of course but maybe we are in for a cold one.... completely frozen windscreen this morning at 7.30am.

9am, car was showing ice alert, 5 degrees.

I’m in rural East Ayrshire, KA4 postcode. That’s the earliest I can remember a frost in a long time. Normally into November.

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Junes with a CET of 16.0C or greater are frequently followed at the end of the year by a below average December. Stats quirk?

2018: ?

2017: 4.8

2003: 4.8

1976: 2.0

1970: 4.3

1960: 3.9

1950: 1.2

1940: 3.8

1896: 3.9

1858: 4.8

1846: 0.5

1826: 5.8

1822: 1.6

1818: 3.6

1798: 1.5

1786: 2.8

1785: 2.8

1781: 5.4

1775: 4.5

1772: 4.8

1762: 3.6

1728: 1.6

1726: 1.6

1707: 3.5

1676: -0.5

1672: 4.5

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Also interesting that only a couple of those Decembers even reached 5C, and you have to go back two centuries to find them.

Doesn't prove anything, of course, but it does suggest that there might be something in the pattern of a hot June which is generally suppressing the December temperatures.

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Maybe to get a really warm June in our soggy western seaboard climate, there needs to be an entrenched continental patter; that will wax and wane of course through summer and autumn, but may keep slipping back to default. And maybe 6 months is as far as it goes-  do we see such a pattern match for the other winter months?

Nonsense theory of course; no evidence; so look away now.

I think the late winter SST was of a type that engenders a longer term breakdown in flow patterns.

There.

 

I've come out.

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Of the nine instances since the 1850s, only two Decembers have minima of less than 3.5, and so could be categorised as genuinely cold rather than merely chilly. So June warmth doesn't seem to be a good forecaster of real cold in December. If you go further back than the 1850s, there are more really cold Decembers in the list, but of course winters were colder then on average anyway. None of the three severest Decembers in recent years (1981, 2009 and 2010) were preceded by Junes that meet the criterion.

I did notice one surprising thing, that Junes with maxima above 16C seemed to be more frequent in the 18th century than they have been more recently.

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