Yes I saw Gav's vid too! The only hope is solar minimum! We are not the only ones suffering - eastern Europe is balmy right now and some places are measuring 20 or 21c some 15 or 16c above normal now.

Anyway, nice to see some contributing to the winter discussion and prognosis. I couldn't help but feel I was the only one talking to myself on this topic if you see above and ended up as a one man's discussion thread. 

I have just noticed my typo where I said the eastern seaboard of the UK instead of what I meant to say, which was the eastern seaboard of the USA. However, I have now fixed that in my original post.

It's a month since my initial thoughts on the upcoming Winter, so let's see how things are progressing now.

October 2018 featured a High Pressure anomaly over the UK with a Low Pressure anomaly over central-western Russia. This particular anomaly does seem to feature in Octobers that progress on to cold Winters.   Also, the Octobers of 1963,  1985, 1986, 1995 and 1996 appear to be the best synoptic matches to 2018, all followed by cold Winters. Interestingly these years were all close to Solar Minimum!    

Also, I think 1986 is a particularly good match to 2018, with a similar ENSO trend, Solar cycle match, and also both Septembers were similar synoptically.   It still is evolving in a similar way, even into November.  

The transition to a wQBO for me, does not look very convincing at the moment. The Stratospheric forecast charts appear to be showing a new chunk of eQBO working into the top stratosphere over the next week or so.  Not sure what to make of this.   If there are any QBO experts who can explain what's going on, please comment!

In any case, I still feel that 1977 is the best match to 2018 in terms of the QBO, and that saw a very weak wQBO through the Winter of 77/78.  I'm more convinced now that it will only be weak wQBO through the coming Winter, and a better chance of sustaining cold weather patterns into later in the Winter.

We continue to see a very unusual Atlantic SST profile, with cold water around Greenland.  Checking back through the SST archives, I can find no match to this since 1996!  Not sure what the effect would be of this anomaly in the heart of Winter.  You could argue it would result in colder Polar Maritime air since it would be blowing from a colder source, but also give extra fuel to the jet stream of course.

Putting everything together, I feel the best analogues to 2018 currently are:

1976 (ENSO, Solar cycle, early November synoptics) 

1977 (ENSO, QBO, PDO)

1986 (ENSO, Solar cycle, Autumn synoptic progression)

2009 (ENSO, Solar cycle, early November synoptics)

Well, a month ago I said that things were looking good for cold weather fans, and perhaps with this set of analogues, there's reason to be even more optimistic now.  In my opinion, a cold Winter for 2018-19 now looking increasingly likely!

Scatter and given the blocked and drier and some colder ensembles end of November STARTING TO COME IN now each run - it does look like God has shuffled his feet again because both NAO and AO have gone more neutral to negative - maybe as a response to the models? Yesterday both models were in quite positive territory! 

But who knows this may flip' back!?> But with Met Office still confident about a cold end to November - i Doubt it very much!!

BTW - interesting Andy thanks for this! Fingers crossed! 

It would be good to have a summary as to how the early winter cold spell of 2010 developed; the conditions and teleconnections involved, etc 

I remember Retron being particularly active and on the ball concerning WAA up the western side of Greenland, which would create a very stable block.

But do we understand what led to this?

I think there is some mistake here. Sept 1986 and Sept 2018 were total opposites in the vicinity of the British Isles. Sept 1986 was the 15th coldest Sept in the long CET record, Sept 2018 was the warmest Sept for Europe as a whole [not CET]. Sept 1986 had frequent blocking to the NW of Britain and was consequently very dry and sunny in NW England, Sept 2018 was poor in the NW.

On the subject of the coming winter there seem to be two camps regarding whether current and recent synoptics are a good or bad indicator for anyone wanting a cold winter. My view is that the weather pattern so far this autumn slightly favours a cold winter, but not strongly. Regarding the warm SSTs in the NE Pacific, I do not share the view that this is likely to cause a persistent mild pattern for the UK. The current North Pacific SST pattern is highly unusual with very widespread warmth and the warmest anomalies are in the NW Pacific rather than the NE Pacific.

Thanks John,  I meant to state that both Octobers (2018 and 1986) have similar synoptic anomalies.  Not the Septembers.

There may well have been specific factors behind the 2010 cold spell but what always encourages me is that cold spells can come out of nowhere with little warning and for no apparent reason. KevBrads1 has does an occasional "Where did that Easterly come from?" and what is surprising is how quickly these cold spells can arise sometimes. Indeed, I did one of these last winter at the end of January IIRC. Kev very generously didn't sue me for breach of copyright for stealing his idea. It was about the 1950 Easterly which kicked in at the beginning of February to give a severe spell despite a fairly average winter beforehand. At that time, I was beginning to give up on winter 2017/18. Then, we got the Beast from the East and I saw my heaviest snowfall since 1982(or possibly even longer). From recollection, it was relatively late on before we knew that we had a real cold spell on the way and even then, we had all the warnings that it could still all go belly up.

Yes, I would be very interested in the conditions and teleconnections in 2010(and also a recap on last February) but these things can only tilt the balance to encourage cold and most of it will always be down to random luck IMO.

Updated met office Ensemble-mean maps showing plenty of northern blocking over winter

I wonder whether the next CPF will reflect the current GloSea5? Below average 850s are favoured in the south during Dec/Jan/Feb. pic.twitter.com/Vf2hbvDxmi

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 11, 2018

Thanks Brian - Cat Meet Pigeons with that GloSea update yes? 

Looks more 50/50 could either way but unlikely to be average. My guess is a euro/scandi  slug anchored in place pumping either cold easterlies or milder southeasterlies.

Watch out for the waxwings pooing on you from above. They'll have been gorging themselves on the abundant berries.

"Ice in November to carry a Duck......."

Just had a quick gander at white Xmas odds. They're appalling, no value whatsoever. 2-1 for Glasgow, 11-4 Newcastle, 3-1 London.

At those prices, I wonder what they'd offer for a non-white Xmas?

I've won twice, the most notable for me being 2004, when I had 3 small bets up and won something like £80. Only put the bet on a few days before when charts were firming up on a brief cold and unstable NW'ly kicking in for the big day itself, and still got odds of between 5-2 and 4-1.

Its the 12th and its not exactly been frigid though so far.

So when does that have a meaning?  

I’m sure the duck in Jan 2011 was mightily relieved.

Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't it need to be above average at 850hpa for cold not below? As in warmer in stratosphere at 850hpa? Not colder? If colder you strengthen zonal westerlies and pv.

At least we finally lose the Azores/mid Atlantic ridge.

850 hPa is way below the stratosphere, when you're talking about around the 10-100 hPa sort of region. 850 hPa is used to get an idea of the real temperature of an airmass in depth, disregarding the effects of inversions and the like on temperatures near the surface. Typically 850 hPa will be at a height of about 4000-5000ft, though obviously it varies with what the pressure at the surface is. It will obviously be a lot lower if the surface pressure is 960 than if it's 1030.

I'm still hoping though, that the AH will just be going on a winter break, and will be back in plenty of time for next summer.

Its an old weather lore saying...

Ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck!!!!

Game on