And when they all agree then there will be no need to look at the charts because it will be obvious that hell has frozen over. 

Interesting. My lust for snow was tempered somewhat after 2010, mainly due to the massive inconvenience it resulted in. Still nice to see now and again but the desire to see it being forecast in the charts etc has waned. 

Fourth point: North Sea SSTs.

In theory, that's not a problem - get -10 (or below!) 850s over it and it'd be an absolute snowfest, even on the coast. (6 inches here from such a setup in Nov '93 with SSTs of 13C. Didn't qute scrape an ice day, but inland they did.)

The snag, as ever, is getting those -10s in the first place.

Yes, fair enough

You really think that is why the thread is quiet? 

SSTs have been covered in the media thread, have a look. SSTs are marginally but not significantly above average (a degree or so). It should aid convection if cold uppers come along.

, hard to keep up with it all these days...

Warmer SSTs will make it harder for -10s to make it through though. There will be more evaporation which in turn will warm the atmosphere. 

[quote=Retron;1050415]

Two points: the 21-year drought was broken earlier this year, so a lot of the pent-up desire for serious snow down here has gone. I'd still like some, for example, but I'm not gagging for it like I have been the last few years.

Second point: it's a wee bit early still. I'd imagine if it were just two weeks later there'd be a lot more interest.

 ——-

People were caught out then too. We are A few days earlier this time but the 12z op run illustrates what’s possible rather than probable by the last week of November, and, recent weather has kidded people we are still in September. If you have a few minutes take a look at the archive runs for the last two weeks of November 1993 to see what’s possible at this time of year.

See how the low solar input deepens and widens the cold in situ in Eastern Europe and then how it rapidly disappears as it arrives over the warm North Sea. A closed circulation briefly developed and gave the SE and East 10 cms or so on the 21st. 

NOT ALL - SOME ARE SHOUTING IN HERE !!!!!!!    

Thought id better post a chart ECM 96H

How novel! EC at 144 is very close to a snow event in the South.

We didn't get much snow from the Beast, its was largely an anti-climax

Yes, it is too early, uppers not great

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=0&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Still a long way off tapping into those blues

I don’t know Neil, high ground - say South Downs - could see snow from that chart, only 1 chart of course 

5 day reality timeframe....when -10c uppers arrive on the edge in that scope then pop the corks....but lots of potential....Op, mean, control...between -3c....-7c uppers from 21st....the troughing from NW Russia needs to keep its momentum SW wards....but not to far south...or well the rest may be history...fingers crossed ..eyes down!

The 12Z EC OP is at odds with its ensemble set going by the mean which shows an impressive Greenland block.

Likely to be an outlier when the set come out in an hour or so.

Ensemble mean at T+240, with the usual caveats

At first sight the ECM operational run might not look that great, but what strikes me on the T+240 500 mb chart is that great pool of deep cold air that is by then centred over northern Russia, as indicated by the deep blues and purples. That's well displaced from where you normally find it in winter, which is over or to the west of Greenland. If I'm right in thinking it represents the core of what is known as the Polar Vortex, then I'd have thought the set-up must favour the development of northerlies over Europe. Also the smaller than usual temperature differential from north to south over the NW Atlantic would make vigorous cyclonogenesis in that region less likely, meaning the North Atlantic would become quieter than usual.

That ensemble mean chart for T+240 shows a similar situation; though there's still a pool of cold air to the W of Greenland, the one over northern Russia is far more intense.

By some distance in FI.