I hate it when that happens, you can't get the stuff off

Certainly seems like a general movement towards a colder outlook this morning but still without agreement.

ECM does look good in medium term though

There you go:

Deepening trough over Biscay seems to be the highlight of the EPS post 240hrs this morning. Colder than normal over the entirety of northern Europe. 

Fair enough optimism got the better of me for cold, feeling positive about cold coming in next week and that’s better than what we have seen so far. Also snow is falling in arts now which is only a good sign!

This is pretty much verbatim what Alex Deakin had to say in his video yesterday.  

Will be an interesting development to watch.  It’s very much all about wind direction.  

The issue, as nearly always, is the jetstream pattern: will It amplify sufficiently to pull WAA northwards far enough?  That is what's drives the alternative scenarios of cool to cold north-westerlies or, if the upper high moves to our north, cold to very cold easterlies.  Having seen the flip-flopping and still limited cross-model agreement there's plenty of scope for one or the other or indeed something subtly different.

Or alternatively what Saint said 2 days ago and I said 3 days ago on this thread. Gotta give us credit on TWO too! 

What a surprise to eake up to light snow cover this morning.

It is getting v interesting now. The ICON solution has the support of the Met humans but just maybe they’re analysis will change.

Re the ICON - its 6z run (it only goes out to T+120) is slightly more favourable with the eastern seaboard low and the energy undercut:

Yes but you didn't a video with pretty graphics  

I'll share the kudos amongst you, great foresight!

IMO, things are looking generally quite positive this morning if it's cold weather one is seeking. Quite a turnaround from this time yesterday when some of us were wondering if the suggested colder period was about to go belly-up.

The ICON high looks further west and amplified further north. Am I seeing things?

Pedantically, I'd say the 1947 cold spell began on the 21st, going by the Wetterzentrale reanalysis charts. The daily CET values (average of daily max and daily min) go from 6.3C on the 18th, 2.8 on the 19th, 1.6 on the 20th, 1.8 on the 21st, 1.0 on the 22nd, 0.1 on the 23rd, -0.6 on the 24th. By the 29th, it was down at -6.4.

I've just been catching up on the overnight runs, and they certainly look very encouraging. However the GFSP is rather late to join the party, though by about 14 days out it starts to being in a very cold easterly.

00Z ensembles :  - what's happened to the mean lately - the white line?

GFS 6Z not dropping the low southwards quite as cleanly as the 06Z, so the easterly doesn't kick in as early - might still be on the way but a little delayed?

Edit - still there but much slacker, although ironically so far it is a snowier run for central southern parts.

Something has clearly gone awry with the graph plotting, as evidenced by that ridiculous precipitation spike at around the same time. This one is OK: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

Yes a much slacker drop south of the trough Tues (GFS) and less robust build of heights behind it, but as is often the way as Synoptics tend to marginal the chances of substantial snow increase. 

I’m thinking we have another 36hrs to see if this becomes ‘locked’ and we must expect some adjustments and inter-model variations.

The theme is still there though, which is the main thing.

You never know it may be one of the more milder options in the ens.  - Fingers X

Some exceptionally cold air just to our east by day 8  on the GFS 6z. Can we hit the jackpot